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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael DeRosa: Canucks: Quiet Deadline Day; Preview vs. Maple Leafs
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VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Mar 12 @ 3:37 PM ET
Joshua. He doesn't sulk or scream at team mates, either.
- Danny Bomber


I like DJ. Good add.
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:38 PM ET
Why is that?
- manvanfan

They can move up to 1st or 2nd only
manvanfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: MB
Joined: 01.21.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:38 PM ET
Complete ducking bs. This team is not playing the same. But we all know you never watch the games. You just enjoy posting complete trash form some reason
- CanuckDon

What exactly are they doing differently?
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:39 PM ET
Joshua. He doesn't sulk or scream at team mates, either.
- Danny Bomber

I like him. But he isn’t nearly as physical and you know. Isnt a PPG player
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:39 PM ET
What exactly are they doing differently?
- manvanfan

Everything. Watch the team. The defence is a lot stronger. The giveaways are mostly a thing of the past
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:39 PM ET
He leads the forwards in hits, he fights. Which forward, in your opinion, plays physical on the team?
- CanuckDon

Joshy boy
Reubenkincade
Location: BC
Joined: 11.18.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:40 PM ET
They can move up to 1st or 2nd only
- CanuckDon



Not true.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:41 PM ET
What exactly are they doing differently?
- manvanfan

Allowing less shots, for one. More puck possession focus for two. And three, goaltending.
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:43 PM ET
Not true.
- Reubenkincade

Yea it is
Bettmanhatesus
Joined: 08.10.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:46 PM ET
Like the attitude the Canucks are showing, enough Debbie downer media crap, they making changes, which take time. Millers attitude and demeanor are changing, the team is showing the potential is there, just because something has happened before does not mean it will continue.
I see them getting a tighter room and a frack the media and the constant whiners.
An us vs the world would go along way, add a piece, trade some money out and keep growing and building a Canuck team that's for each other and gonna prove themselves

- onesmallleap

Carefull 😆
manvanfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: MB
Joined: 01.21.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:47 PM ET
Allowing less shots, for one. More puck possession focus for two. And three, goaltending.
- neem55

None of that would have to do with player lesser teams at all eh.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:49 PM ET
None of that would have to do with player lesser teams at all eh.
- manvanfan

Looked pretty good against the leafs there court jester
manvanfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: MB
Joined: 01.21.2012

Mar 12 @ 3:53 PM ET
Looked pretty good against the leafs there court jester
- neem55

OH NO! 1 game out of 82 is amazing.
Quinn's Quest
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.08.2022

Mar 12 @ 3:54 PM ET
Ok I am terrible with grammar, but you need to at least pretend you care about education.

This team can score; what it had problems with was defending.

Hick ups? cmon hiccups.

Starting a sentence with But

- VANTEL


I’m using the microphone at times talking. So that’s why sentences aren’t always how they should be. Like now talking into the microphone again and what comes out I don’t look at I don’t care I just hit submit.
Bettmanhatesus
Joined: 08.10.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:54 PM ET
I like DJ. Good add.

- VANTEL

4th line set in stone it appears.
Reubenkincade
Location: BC
Joined: 11.18.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:55 PM ET
Yea it is
- CanuckDon


No it isn't.
Bettmanhatesus
Joined: 08.10.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:56 PM ET
Everything. Watch the team. The defence is a lot stronger. The giveaways are mostly a thing of the past
- CanuckDon

Looks like good depth on d from Abby, they are doing good things over there.
Quinn's Quest
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.08.2022

Mar 12 @ 3:57 PM ET
Everything. Watch the team. The defence is a lot stronger. The giveaways are mostly a thing of the past
- CanuckDon


Isn’t that called structure?
Reubenkincade
Location: BC
Joined: 11.18.2016

Mar 12 @ 3:57 PM ET
4th line set in stone it appears.
- Bettmanhatesus


Centre?
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:58 PM ET
No it isn't.
- Reubenkincade

Yes it is
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Mar 12 @ 3:59 PM ET

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Quinn's Quest
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 08.08.2022

Mar 12 @ 4:00 PM ET
No it isn't.
- Reubenkincade

You can move 10 spots up I believe.
Reubenkincade
Location: BC
Joined: 11.18.2016

Mar 12 @ 4:00 PM ET
Yes it is
- CanuckDon


Sure okay.
NewYorkNuck
Vancouver Canucks
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 07.11.2015

Mar 12 @ 4:01 PM ET
From the Athletic from a couple days ago about Tocchet's impact (the tables don't translate):

The Tocchet Bump

Nine games into Bruce Boudreau’s tenure with the club — remember 15 months ago when everyone was certain that a new coach made this a different team entirely? — we took a look behind the numbers and asked the question: “Are the Canucks materially, durably better — not just in terms of results, but in terms of their outlook?”

We concluded that they weren’t, despite significant improvement on the penalty kill. It wasn’t a popular piece of analysis, but it certainly aged well in the long run.

We’ve been waiting to go through a similar exercise with Tocchet for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the club’s results under their Tocchet haven’t been quite as remarkable off the hop as they were under Boudreau, who didn’t lose in regulation until his 10th game with the team. Vancouver’s recent run of form hasn’t demanded the sort of investigation that the “once-left-for-dead Canucks are suddenly the best team in the Western Conference for a month” Boudreau bump did.

That said, Vancouver has done well since Tocchet took over. Eighteen points in 17 games is a big improvement over where this club was in late January, even if it was predictable.

Additionally, the club’s goaltending has been so porous for much of Tocchet’s tenure that the club has very rarely led until this past week. In the month of February, for example, Vancouver played 11 games under Tocchet for a total of about 674 minutes in all situations (including overtime). They led for just 16 percent of that time, and trailed for 58 percent of that time.

As we saw most notably in Dallas last week, when a team is playing a playoff-calibre opponent and leading, they tend to get shelled relentlessly as that club tries to catch up. We call this “score effects.” The opposite is true as well, when an NHL team almost never leads and is always chasing the game, they naturally outshoot their opposition regardless of form.

Put more simply, Vancouver’s results were so extreme that it was premature to really look into the data until the sample pooled a bit. In truth, it’s still too early.

Whether we’re ready or not — and I’d prefer a 30-game sample before drawing anything conclusive — the familiar “different coach, different team” chatter is beginning in the Vancouver market. So it’s time to take a quick glance under the hood at five-on-five.

To try and offset the impact of score effects, we’ll use score and venue-adjusted data for this exercise, which can be found at NaturalStatTrick.com.
Tocchet Bump 5-on-5
Goal Differential

-17

-7
Scoring Chance%

45.2%

48%
Sh%

9.60%

8.95%
Sv%

0.902

0.891

The goal differential numbers, obviously, don’t tell the full story here because Tocchet’s sample of games coaches is far smaller than Boudreau’s.

The fact is, the club has been outscored by a greater margin since Tocchet took over than when they were under Boudreau previously, although the lion’s share of that is down to worse goaltending performances and shooting luck.

Substantively, and small sample qualifiers must apply here, the club is controlling play more ably under Tocchet than they previously did under Boudreau and the scoring chance numbers reflect that. Most importantly, that improvement at five-on-five applies across the board, by whatever metric you prefer.

The club is shooting more and generating chances at a greater rate under Tocchet, while permitting fewer shots and scoring chances against. This is the sort of ‘new coach bump’ that — results aside — looks more likely to prove durable and meaningful than Vancouver’s sudden and percentage-driven reversal of fortunes was under Boudreau in December of 2021.

It’s too early to say for sure whether the club is really onto something here or not, but if this improvement holds up — and if the club is able to successfully graft a higher level of talent onto their improved “structure” next season — the Canucks might be close enough to coming out even at five-on-five that, with a high-end power play and stellar goaltending, they could realistically be capable of competing for a playoff spot, provided that the penalty kill doesn’t shoot them in the foot.

That’s the big question. Across three head coaches working under four different assistant coaches over the past two seasons, Vancouver’s four-on-five play has been absolutely dreadful. That is until the past two weeks.

Suddenly, over the past 25 times Vancouver has been short-handed, the club has surrendered just four goals against (while scoring three short-handed themselves). They’re clicking along at an 84 percent kill rate over the past seven games.

Overall, however, under Tocchet — and assistant coach Mike Yeo has been responsible for running the penalty kill under both Boudreau and Tocchet — the penalty kill improvement looks to be percentage driven. Now we’re really dealing with minuscule samples here, so the usual qualifiers apply, but so far, by just about every category, the club is permitting more short-handed attempts, shots and scoring chances against since the coaching change:
Tocchet Bump PK
Attempts Against/60

106.2

110.2
Shots Against/60

58.7

63.4
Chances Against/60

63

61
Sv%

0.762

0.837

Where Vancouver’s penalty kill has really improved since the coaching change is in net, where its goalies have been far sturdier in short-handed situations than they were for Boudreau. You’d say this proves the old “goalie has to be your best penalty killer” rule, except for the fact that in 17 games under Tocchet, Vancouver has scored a whopping seven short-handed goals — while converting on better than half of its shots when down a man.

It’s early yet, but the Tocchet bump looks like it may really be something at five-on-five. If that persists, that would be tremendous news for this hockey club.

As for the Canucks penalty kill, well, it’s running hot of late, but I don’t see anything under the hood to suggest that it’s fixed — or even on its way to being fixed — aside from a run of good fortune that’s unlikely to last.


So, while they have been playing worse opponents, they have been playing better as well as the underlying numbers suggest. But that's a small sample size, we'll see how it turns out next year.
Reubenkincade
Location: BC
Joined: 11.18.2016

Mar 12 @ 4:01 PM ET
The new Canucks fan s theme song

https://youtu.be/otZ9YI5OG14
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