The Rangers and the Hurricanes meet for the third time in the past five years. In 2022, New York defeated Carolina in seven games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Two years prior, during the play-in series, the Canes swept the Rangers. New York cruised through the regular season, becoming the first team to lock up a playoff berth, then clinching the division, conference and President's Trophy at 55-23-4. Carolina, bolstered by the trade deadline acquisition of Jake Guentzel, finished just three points shy of New York. Both teams cruised in the first round, with the Rangers sweeping the Capitals in four while the 'Canes knocked the Islanders out of the playoffs in five contests. Game 1, Sunday, 4pm, MSG.
Rangers-Canes series schedule:.
The Rangers preview is a repeat from the Capitals series, updated for the players' performance against the Capitals.
Rangers lines
Kreider-Zibanejad-Roslovic
Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière
Cuylle-Wennberg-Kakko
Vesey-Goodrow-Rempe
Extras:
Healthy scratch: Jonny Brodzinski, Zac Jones, Chad Ruhwedel
LTIR: Filip Chytil, Blake Wheeler
The above is how the team closed the season and were deployed in all four games against Washington. My guess is this is who we see in Game 1 on Sunday but also believe Filip Chytil makes an appearance during the series, possibly dependent on what happens in Game 1 or 2.
Zibanejad struggled 5x5 most of the season, racking up 31 of his 74 points on the man-advantage. He still is used in all situations and doesn't receive enough credit for his defensive work. Kreider has become an all-situations player as well. He is paired with Zib shorthanded while still being a master at net front presence and deflections, especially on the PP.. The 75 points - 39 goals, 36 assists - are two off his career-high for 2021-22. He is less of a physical presence than he once was, which has drawn the ire of some Rangers' fans. Roslovic was brought in at the deadline to try and fill the revolving door that existed all season at right wing. He got off to a good start, but was benched April 7 and went four straight games without registering a point. This line was at their best the final two games of the regular season, lending home they have figured it out. If a change in personnel is made, it will be here.
In the first round, Zib had a goal and six assists, Kreider had a pair of goals and an assist while Roslovic had two markers and two apples in the win. Zib took his game in the first round closer to the level we expect and will need against Carolina. Kreider had his moments, especially on the PP and PK, as did Roslovic. But as Vince Mercogliano noted, the Kreider-Zibanejad-Roslovic line finished the Caps' series with a 45.25% xGF, worst among New York's four lines, according to Natural Stat Trick. Despite those numbers, I never felt that line was hemmed in or outplayed, but against the -Teuvo Teravainen-Jordan Staal-Seth Jarvis line, this trio will have their work cut out for them.
Panarin, the Bread Man, delivered all year. Rebounding from last year's playoff debacle - two points in seven games against NJ - Panarin got off to a strong start and never faltered, finishing with career-bests in goals, 49, assists, 71, and points, 120 and should finish in the top-five of the Hart Trophy voting. All the above is wonderful, but we know that if he gets off to a slow start or struggles, the mantra will be on his lack of playoff performance. Trocheck is New York's unsung hero. Much of the talk late the prior season was how he and Panarin were not compatible. Chytil opened the year centering Panarin on the second line with Trocheck filling the role when Chytil was hurt and thriving. His 77 points (25 points) were a new career-high while he also saw copious action at even-strength, on the power play and shorthanded. Lafreniere, tagged by many as a bust, had his breakout campaign. Not just a product of playing with Panarin and despite minimal PP TOI, Laffy potted a career-high 28 goals with 29 assists and was a threat almost every shift.
Against Washington, Panarin "only" had a pair of goals - though both were game winners - and an assist. But if you watched the series, he had that jump we saw all season, which was lacking last year. Vincent Trocheck might have been the team's best forward, notching three goals and as many assists while winning 71.2% of his draws. a little revenge series for Trocheck, who played for Carolina in the 2022 playoffs. Alexis Lafreniere didn't light the lamp, but had four assists and upped his physical level of play. His performance will be a huge key against Carolina, as his growth from then to now is a major change between the two matchups. It's possible Carolina matches strength for strength, using the Jake Guentzel-Sebastian Aho-Andrei Svechnikov against the Panarin line.
The bottom-six has been a work-in-progress most of the season. Wennberg came at the deadline from Seattle and has steadied that 3C spot with Chytil out. Chytil, sidelined since Nov.. 2 with what's believed to be his fourth concussion, was expected to miss the remainder of the season. He surprisingly started practicing in a full-contact jersey last week and is an option for the playoffs. Coach Peter Laviolette could deploy Chytil as the 1RW or slot him back in as the 3C with Wennberg moving to wing on that line or possibly moving up to the first line. A move like that would impact Roslovic and possibly Will Cuylle, but it provides the Rangers options, as we presume that Chytil is 100% or he would not have been cleared for any contact given the injury. Initially, though, despite the impact it would have on MSG to Chytil suit up, my gut says he starts Game 1 in the press box.
Cuylle finished the regular season with 13 goals, eight assists and 247 hits in 81 appearances but slowed down offensively after mid-February, mustering just three goals without an assist over the final 27 games of the regular season. Despite the drop in production, he should be in the lineup initially, as his physical presence will be beneficial against Washington's playing style. Kaapo Kakko looked to be on the verge of a breakout after scoring 18 goals and 22 assists last season. Now, the questions that were asked on Laf are pointed to him. Kakko is strong along the walls and solid enough defensively, making him a good third-line winger, but the offensive production tailed off mightily with 13 goals and six helpers in 61 games.
Versus the Capitals, the Cuylle-Wennberg-Kakko trio didn't have a big offensive series. Kakko opened the scoring in Game 4 and that was it for the line. Despite the lack of production, the unit had a solid series as they were strong defensively while - as noted in the Athletic preview - also possessing the puck substantially in their shifts, posting a 74 percent expected goals rate against Washington. If Carolina limits the top-six, this is where we could see Chytil line up, shifting Cuylle down.
Jimmy Vesey has been a jack-of-all-trades, moving up and down the lineup. He has had a turn on the first line but is better suited for the bottom-six, finishing with 13 goals and as many assists. Barclay Goodrow, largely due to his $3.6 million salary, but also due to his lack of production is persona non grata with most Rangers' fans. Despite that, he is a Lavy favorite and will be in the lineup centering the fourth line despite subpar advanced metrics. Matt Rempe, who has become the fan's favorite, is expected to line up as the fourth line right wing Sunday. His presence is meant as a deterrent to Tom Wilson but Rempe has to stay out of the box and not get caught up in any side shows. He is the most likely to be replaced by either Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski if Laviolette wants to add some speed to the bottom-six.
This unit - at least two-thirds of it - had a tremendous series against the Caps. Goodrow found his game late in the season and it carried forward. His presence will be key against the Canes. Vesey was good, not great, and is locked into his role on the fourth line. Rempe gets the home crowd going, but as seen, coach Peter Lsviolette staples Rempe to the bench in a close game, relying on 11 forwards. Rempe likely will start Game 1, but at some point in the series, Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski will replace him to bring additional speed, a possible scoring option and more reliable forward.
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Gustafsson-Trouba
Extras: Jones-Ruhwedel
For much of the season, the top-four was set. When Jacob Trouba missed 11 games in March, Laviolette and coach Phil Housley paired K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. While the advanced metrics were not substantially different from Miller and Trouba, that new pairing looked and felt different. Lavy put Trouba and Miller back together when Trouba returned but changed up the pairings to Miller and Schneider the last two games of the season with strong results. It's possible the Rangers revert to what had been tried and true, though the signs point to this duo remaining together. Miller has looked better offensively since the change and he will need to be physical down low, the same with Schneider, against the Caps, who generate much of their attack in front of the net.
As Larry Brooks noted, the Adam Fox-Ryan Lindgren pair first formed nine years ago with Team USA’s U17 squad and reunited on the Rangers the first month of 2019-20 had a 66.67 percent goal-share after the All-Star break, on for 26 goals for and 13 against. The tandem will see its fair share of Alex Ovechkin this round as they have with all top lines in the past. Fox missed 10 games this year with an injury and struggled after his return, but as noted above, he has been right as rain lately, finishing with 73 points in 72 games. Lindgren is Robo Cop and the Bionic Man, shrugging off injuries and shots. The heart of this team, Lindgren is the modern day Dan Girardi.
Trouba is vilified for his $8 million salary and C on his chest by many. He is the true physical presence on the blue line, relying on positioning to make up for the lack of foot speed. Trouba blocks shots and dishes out hits and will need to be an enforcer down low in this series. The Caps lack of true speed should help him in this round. Erik Gustafsson played last year for Laviolette in Washington. A hot start when Fox was out receded to mediocrity and calls for Zac Jones, who showed he can be a true third-pairing d-man got louder as the year continued. If Gus struggles, Jones or Chad Ruhwedel, acquired at the deadline, will replace him.
In the postseason, all three pairings played well against Washington. Right now the major concern is Adam Fox's knee. He took a knee-to-knee hit from Nick Jensen in the fourth game, the same knee hit by Sebastian Aho that cost him 10 games early in the season. Fox has not practiced this week. The hope/belief/expectation is that he will suit up Game 1, but some doubt has creeped in.
K'Andre Miller was New York's best defenseman last round. Miller has stepped up his game when paired with Braden Schneider, dominating all over the ice. Schneider has not been far behind, raising his level of play. Now, the advanced metrics don't reflect this, as Miller and Schneider were the only pair that was outchanced and outscored. But the eye test didn't reflect this.
Ironically, the Ryan Lindgren-Fox pairing was the Rangers' worst in the series, which says a lot based on their prior play. If Fox is healthy, and he did practice Saturday after missing the prior two, this is not a combination that worries me. Putting Miller and Scheider together allowed Jacob Trouba to be moved to the third line with Erik Gustafsson. He is able to be sheltered a bit, though Trouba blocked 21 shots against the Caps and will need to play a huge role in this match up for New York to advance. Gustafsson is best served on this pairing and likely will get better zone starts at home again. On the road is where the concern sits.
Shesterkin
Quick
Shesterkin had an up-and-down campaign, but found his form again after the All-Star Break. He got off to a strong start but was scuffling leading to the ASG, in which he represented the Rangers. Igor had an a 2.86 GAA, .899 save percentage and zero shutouts in 32 games through the NHL All-Star break, but went 17-5-1 with a 2.20 GAA, .930 save percentage and four shutouts in 23 games from Feb. 9 through the end of the season and enters the playoffs on a roll, winning seven of his last nine contests, including a shutout. Jonathan Quick has given the team a solid backup netminder, notching a .911 save percentage. His greatest value may be in the locker room, where he brings a steady presence and three Stanley Cups.
Shesterkin carried forward his fine end of year performance into the Caps series. He allowed just seven goals in four games, posting a .931 save percentage. On paper, this is where New York has a material edge. That said, Andersen stepped his game down the stretch, which was a large reason why Carolina almost won the division, conference and President's Trophy. He wasn't great at all times against the Islanders, posting a 2.25 goals-against average .912 save percentage and more than two goals saved above average. But with the firepower the Canes have, that was good enough, and Andersen is a significant upgrade over Antti Raanta, who was in net when the two teams met in 2022. Igor will need to be at his best for New York to win the series.
NHL.com preview:
https://www.nhl.com/news/ny-rangers-vs-carolina-2024-playoff-preview
Canes lines from practice yesterday, which is what we see in Game 1 Sunday:
Jake Guentzel -- Sebastian Aho -- Andrei Svechnikov
Teuvo Teravainen -- Jordan Staal -- Seth Jarvis
Jordan Martinook -- Jack Drury -- Martin Necas
Jesperi Kotkaniemi -- Evgeny Kuznetsov -- Stefan Noesen
Injured: Jesper Fast (upper body)
Carolina's offense got a major boost with the acquisitions of Guentzel and Svechnikov at the trading deadline. Guentzel potted eight goals with 17 assists in 17 games in Carolian, returning from his upper-body injury without really missing a beat. Aho is the engine that makes that line go, scoring 26 goals with 53 assists and a plus-34 rating, rebounding from a mildly subpar prior campaign. Svechnikov, who had an ACL injury and didn't play in the playoffs last year, was limited to 59 games this year due to injuries. He scored 19 goals and added 33 assists while heading into this year's playoffs healthy.
The second line trio is a shut down line but as you will see, can also denty the scoresheet. Staal is the defensive ballast on the roster and the lightest offensively of the line, adding 10 goals and 20 assists. Teravainen.rebounded from.a down 2022-23 to pot 25 goals and 28 assists with a plus-15 rating. Jarvis is the sniper of this line, exploding for 33 goals and 34 assists while also dishing out 115 hits, If there is an X factor for Carolina in this series, to me, it's Jarvis who took a major step forward this year.
Necas is a top-six winger shunted to the third line because of the talent on the right side in front of him. He didn't have as good of a season this year as he did in 2022-23, falling from 28 goals and 43 assists to 24 and 29 this year, but he is still dangerous. Drury, the nephew of Rangers' GM Chris Drury, became a full-time player this year. He scored eight goals and added 19 assists in 74 contests. Martinook, a solid depth player, notched 14 goals and 18 assists, in line with his production from the prior season.
Kotkaniemi started the year in the top-six but slid down the pecking order due to his struggles. He finished the season with just 12 goals and 15 assists. Noesen is my other X factor offensively for the Canes. A free agent after the season, Noesen had his second straight solid campaign in Carolina, tallying 14 goals, 23 assists and 118 hits after notching 13, 23 and 99 last year. Kutznetsov has lengthened the Carolina lineup. After flaming out in Washington, Kuznetsov posted a pair of goals and five assists in 20 games, but his acquisition was always for the postseason, where he had prior success.
In the first round against the Islanders, Carolina had balanced scoring with 12 players lighting the lamp and 17 skaters notching at least a point. The Hurricanes were led by Jarvis' seven points (three goals and four assists) while Svechnikov and Necas each had five points (one goal, four assists).
The new acquisitions, Guentzel (one goal, three assists) and Kuznetsov (two goals, two assists) each had four points, as did Teravainen (two goals and two assists). What made Carolina's win over New York even more impressive is that Sebastian Aho only had three points (a goal and two assists) in the 4-1 series win.
Blueline
Jaccob Slavin -- Brent Burns
Brady Skjei -- Tony DeAngelo
Dmitry Orlov -- Jalen Chatfield
Injured: Brett Pesce (lower body)
Slavin had 37 points (6 goals, 31 assists), a plus-21 rating and eight penalty minutes in 81 games this season. He was just named a Lady Byng Finalist, having won the award in 2020-21 and was runner-up in 2021-22. Slavin posted 27 points the prior year and his increased output came despite basically no power play time, Burns, however, saw nearly half his production - 20 points - come on the man-advantage. Overall, he tallied 10 goals and 33 assists, a sharp decline from the 61 points he notched the prior season, as his game clearly declined this season. He notched a plus-19 rating for the season straight season, but he has lost a skating step.
The best overall d-man in Carolina now may be Skjei, an ex-Ranger. He has thrived with the increased responsibility, upping his production to a career-high 47 points - 13 goals, 34 assists - with a plus15 rating. He is usually paired with Pesce, but he is out at least the first two games, as he did not travel to New York. Pesce missed the final three games of Carolina's opening-round series after suffering a lower-body injury in Game 2 against the Islanders. in his stead is another ex-Ranger in DeAngelo, who injured his wrist/hand on a slash in game 5 against the Islanders, but is good to go. ADA was a healthy scratch most of the season, skating in just 31 games, and was passed through waivers in March after the trade deadline with no one claiming him.
The blueline rich got richer this offseason when Orlov signed a two-year, $15.5 million contract with the Hurricanes. He followed the most productive campaign of his career with a solid year for Carolina, who deployed him on the third line after he saw top-six usage in Washington.
Chatfield is the most unsung of the d-corps. He upped his production in his second full season as a starter and showed he could possibly be a top-four blueliner down the road. Carolins see little decline when they shift d-pairings, though the absence of Peace is a material one.
Against the Islanders, Skeji continued his fine campaign with five assists. Burns and Orlov tallied the only goals from the blueline. Defensively, Carolina was solid against the Islanders, though the Slavin-Burns pairing had their issues. They did struggle at times in front of the net, as New York was able to generate traffic and capitalize at times in the series. Overall, the defense, despite the absence of Pesce, held their own, but 12 goals allowed versus a so-so offense is a bit more than expected. Plus, the Islanders surprisingly dominated action 5x5 in games 1 and 4. If there is a weak link, it's ADA, so look for the Rangers to try and take advantage of him when he is on the ice.
Goalies:
Frederik Anderson
Pyotr Kochetkov
Andersen missed four months of the season due to a blood clot issue. Since returning to action, Andersen went 13-2-0 with a 1.63 GAA and .938 save percentage over 15 contests. That performance earned him the #1 netminder job for the playoffs and a nomination as one of three finalists for the Masterton Trophy. While Andersen was sidelined, Kotchetkov more than held the fort, sliding into a job-share when Andersen returned. For the year, Kochetkov went 23-13-4 with a 2.33 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 42 appearances. If Andersen, coach Rod Brind'Amour could turn to Kochetkov with little drop off.
Andersen was solid, and at times specular, versus the Islanders. Overall, he finished the series with a 4-1 record, 2.25 GAA and .912 save percentage. Andersen will see a greater test offensively in this series. Andersen has advanced past the second round just once in his career, 2014-15 as a member of the Ducks.
Special teams:
Rangers Power Play (26.4%, 3rd) vs. Hurricanes Penalty Kill (86.4 1st)
Rangers PP units:
PP1: Fox-Panarin-Trocheck-Kreider-Zibanejad
PP2: Gustafsson-Wennberg-Lafreniere-Kakko-Roslovc
Hurricanes PK units:
Staal, Javis, Burns, SlavinAho, Teravainen, Orlov, Skeji
The Rangers PP opened the season on fire, slumped during their lull, then ramped it up especially late in the season. The first unit still remains out on the ice a substantial portion of the man advantage, leaving crumbs for the second unit. Panarin roams the point or slides down the left or right side. Kreider is the net-front, shot-deflector master presence, Zibanejad prefers the left hash for his one-timer, Trocheck is in the bumper slot and Fox coordinates from the point.
When the group is rolling, the puck and player movement is quick and decisive. When they overpass or fail to move, that's when they struggle. In addition, zone entries are not always clean, but they have done a better job in that regard. The hiring of Michael Peca as a coach has aided the PP substantially, diversifying the attack somewhat.
Against Washington, New York was 6-for-16 on the man-advantage. Their special teams play was a major reason why the team advanced. Carolina was brilliant during the season while shorthanded. They took a step back against the Islanders, killing 72.7 of the penalties after finishing first in the league at 86.4% during the regular season, due to their pressure down low.
As Bingo noted, the Canes like to pressure the puck all over the ice so they will often forget about the guy standing in front of the net. If that happens, CK20 could have a field day in front as well as Trcheck from the slot. How the two teams fare here, like most series, will play a major role in who advances. But if New York can make Carolina pay for taking penalties, it will help even out the 5x5 discrepancy that exists.
Hurricanes Power Play (26.6%, 2nd) vs. Rangers Penalty Kill (84.5, 3rd)
Hurricanes PP units:
Guentzel, Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov, BurnsTeravainen, Kuznetsov, Necas, Noesen, Skjei
Rangers PK units:
Zibanejad, Kreider, Miller, Trouba
Trocheck, Goodrow, Fox, Lindgren
Carolina's PP got a major boost from the additions of Guenzel and Kuzentsov. Already a talented unit, the Canes got even deeper and more talented after the trade deadline. No real weak spots exist, nor do they overvalue one style of play from another. Each member of the units can score and they don't look to force feed anyone, relying on the collective skills.
The Rangers had eight shorthanded goals, spurred by aggressive play up high in the defensive zone CK20's development in this regard has made him more valuable and the pairining have tremendous chemistry.
Carolina also upped their PP play in the postseason, scoring on one-third of their attempts. On the flip side, the Rangers stoned the Capitals 88.2% of the time - stopping 15-of-17 chances - while also scoring a pair of shorthanded goals.
As Bingo noted, Brind'amour changed the approach on offense. No more blasting away from the point all year long looking for tips and deflections. They make a lot of plays from behind/beside the net now. Carolian will show patience, making pass after pass to get you to overcommit or get worn down or lose focus and take advantage when that happens.
As SkjeiStadium noted, the Rangers biggest strength on the PK is pressuring the blue line and creating turnovers, both on zone entries and with in-zone setup. Kreider and Mika specifically create a lot of offense shorthanded by being aggressive at the points. That doesn't work as well if the play is being controlled along the goal line. But, a turnover down low could lead to a breakout chance if the zone is cleared, especially for Kreider with his speed.
The Athletic Series Preview:
Keys to/storylines of the series:
1)
Styles - As the NHL,com preview noted, the Hurricanes had 411 shot attempts against the Islanders in the series, including a first-round high of 110 in a 5-3 comeback win in Game 2. That's 121 more than the Islanders managed and is a testament to not only Carolina's defensive depth, but also the effectiveness of their forecheck. The Hurricanes are a big, heavy team that likes to be aggressive on its forecheck and hem the opposition within its own end. It pays dividends in both the short term and the long term.
New York struggled 5x5 during the season and were outplayed at times similarly versus Washington. Their difficulty arises when they go east-west too often rather than north-south. In this series, they will need to counterattack effectively, using the Canes aggression against them, either with odd-man rushes or down low after the initial shot on net. If the special teams end up even, the Rangers will need to find a way to narrow the gap and be even or head here to win the series. That will require winning the 1 on 1 battles since Carolina deploys a man-to-man defensive system.
2)
Goaltending Andersen should provide Carolina better goaltending than Raanta did in the 2022 playoffs. He was a major reason why the Canes defeated the Islanders. Shesterkin was brilliant in the Washington series. He allowed seven goals on 101 shots in the four games for a 1.75 goals-against average and .931 save percentage. Igor helped the Rangers go 15 for 17 on the penalty kill, turning aside 12 of Washington's 14 shots on the power play. Plus, he has the memory of defeating Carolina in seven games in the 2022 playoffs.
3)
Special teams: The numbers here are even, both on the PP and PK. New York took both to another level against Washington while Carolina did the same on the PP but regressed slightly on the PK versus the Islanders.
For New York offensively, the objective is don't be too fancy. Rely on what's worked during the year and maximize those chances, forcing the Canes to maintain their structure, On the PK, they will need to adapt to not overplaying for the Ovi one-timer and retain their structure, not getting impatient if the Canes pass the puck several times to create open shooting slots.
4)
Starpower - Both units have elite scorers and playmakers, un front and on the blue line. Presuming they negate one another, the secondary units take on even more importance. Carolina improved their depth up front at the deadline and in the offseason on the blue line. That additional talent make them a tougher out. For New York, the X-factor may be Chytil, who was brilliant in 2022 against Carolina and could be the boost needed in this series..
Prediction:
On paper, Carolina has the edge in the underlying numbers with a stronger goal differential. That's why New York actually enters this match up as the underdog.
As the Athletic preview noted, the Hurricanes generate a ton of shots and quality chances on their opponents and are one of the best forechecking teams in the league. The Rangers, who rely more on the rush, are a lot more middle-of-the-road in what they create. But the difference is that New York makes the most of those opportunities while the Canes notoriously struggle to do the same; a theme that carried forward into the playoffs.
What happened in 2022 can be pushed to the background. Carolins is a more talented team while New York is a better coached unit..Laviolette and Brind'Amour have a history, as Brind'Amour played for Lavi when Carolina won the Cup. This is a nice side story, but not germane to the series.
For New York to win, they will need to find a way offensively to negate Carolina's strength defensively, which includes excelling at breaking up their opponents’ passes. Defensively, they will need to be a cohesive five-man unit to prevent the Hurricanes from controlling play and possession. If all that fails, Shesterkin will need to stand on his head as he did two years ago.
All the numbers point to the Hurricanes. They are deeper than 2022, better in net than 2022 and have a chip on their shoulder. New York, though, is better coached and should have a plan to counter what Carolina does best. My gut - and the numbers - say to pick the Canes in six and I wouldn't be shocked if that is the case. I expect to see Chytil in this series while Panarin continues his redemption tour. Just to add some spice, Trocheck nets the series winning goal.
Rangers in seven.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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