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Time For More Purposeful Roster Changes |
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The past couple of years have seen the Ottawa Senators make a number of significant roster moves, which attracted the attention of both fans and critics alike. This started with the acquisitions of Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, and Cam Talbot in the summer of 2022, followed by the addition of Jacob Chychrun, Joonas Korpisalo, Dominik Kubalik, and Vladimir Tarasenko in 2023. But despite the fanfare and enthusiasm with which these moves were made, it’s become evident that former GM Pierre Dorion had no real coherent plan for their deployment. If anything, the body of work reveals a more impulsive mindset than a series of measured actions based on a thoughtful analysis of team needs.
Managing an NHL team roster within a tight salary cap structure isn’t just about the volume-per-dollar of talent put on the ice, it’s about moving the team towards a shared vision for a successful on-ice product. For many years the fanbase was sold on the promise of an exciting young team that would be physical and hard to play against, yet few of the major roster moves align with such a vision. None of DeBrincat, Kubalik, or Tarasenko ever seemed to have a clear role in the lineup, and DeBrincat/Kubalik were a combined -61. I'm not certain if it's the only time in NHL history that a -30 player was traded for a player that went on to also be a -30 player, but I'm quite certain that it's evidence that neither was particularly "hard to play against". Then Chychrun was acquired via trade to bolster the top-4D, but was almost immediately forced to play on his off-side more often than not, and wound up being a team-worst -30 defensive liability. Korpisalo was signed to stabilize the team’s goaltending, but instead delivered an unsettling tendency for giving up goals within the first 2 shots of a game, and a rate of goals allowed above expected that was the absolute worst in the NHL.
Now it’s easy to critique decisions with the benefit of hindsight, but I’d suggest a closer examination of their more successful moves is more useful to illustrate the benefit of taking a more prescriptive approach to roster changes. The most obvious example of this would be Claude Giroux, who has surpassed expectations in virtually every way possible. But it starts with the team not just adding “a veteran guy” to the top-6 forwards. Giroux was a former 10-year NHL captain, who personified the kind of tenacity, work ethic, and leadership they wanted to see more of in the lineup. They also knew that they had a young #1C in Stutzle that was struggling in the faceoff circle, and Giroux was one of the best faceoff players in the entire NHL. He was even a natural RH-shot on a team with only one other top-6 forward that shoots right. Roster weaknesses were identified, a clear role and purpose was assigned, and the result is the most successful UFA signing in franchise history.
Of course not all roster moves will involve a player of Giroux’s quality, and there are no guarantees in any process. But if anything that lack of a guaranteed outcome makes it even more important to ensure that at the very least as the GM you have a clear purpose for making the change, have a roster spot available for the new player, and a clear role you expect of them. By this simple test, Pierre Dorion failed on both DeBrincat trades (i.e. including Kubalik), the Tarasenko signing, and most likely the Chychrun trade as well. So as we approach a critical off-season under new management with a promise of significant changes ahead, I’m hoping the Senators will more strongly consider the actual role and qualities they need at the following key positions:
RH-Top-4D
Arguably the most pressing team need, the first reality is that if/when Chychrun is moved in the off-season this player will have to effectively handle 20min/GP, and specifically complement one of Sanderson or Chabot. That means they need to have a strong defensive skill set, some degree of physical presence, and play a very reliable brand of hockey to accommodate the more aggressive puck-moving the teams needs to get from their $8M D-men. It would also be preferable if they were a natural RH shot, so that when everyone’s healthy they’re able to play on their most effective side.
Potential UFA Success: Matt Roy (LAK)
Potential UFA Failure: T.J. Brodie (TOR) (age/mobility issues, LH-shot, limited physical play)
Low-Risk #1A/B G
If this off-season yields an opportunity for the Senators to pull the trigger on a trade for a legitimate #1G, they should make that change. However, the more probable scenario here is that an upgrade on Forsberg is more realistic/feasible than a Korpisalo trade or the team landing a big-name goaltender. Ideally, they will find a way to add a veteran #1B goaltender who can help provide calm and stability in goal, especially during times when Korpisalo is struggling. Given some of the names on the UFA market, they may even be able to attract a goaltender that’s seeking an opportunity to assume more of a #1A role and pressure Korpisalo to earn the privilege of regular starts.
Potential UFA Success: Lauren Brossoit (WPG)
Potential UFA Fail: Ilya Samsonov (TOR) (likely over-priced, similar consistency issues to Korpisalo)
Two-Way #3C
Last season really exposed the team’s vulnerability at C, with Shane Pinto missing the first 41GP due to suspension, and Josh Norris missing the last ~30GP due to yet another season-ending shoulder injury. The latter issue suggests the team can’t afford a third straight season where another major injury to Norris could derail their entire season. They would be wise to shift Pinto into a more permanent #2C role, shift Norris to a top-6 LW position when healthy (LTIR otherwise), let Greig play a W/C role as added depth, and bring in a more established NHL #3C who can play an effective two-way game, handle >1,000 faceoffs, and play either special teams as needed.
Potential UFA Success: Chandler Stephenson (VGK)
Potential UFA Fail: Sean Monahan (WPG) (limited two-way ability, limited intensity/physical play)
These are just subjective musings, of course, but they reflect a need for a more honest appraisal of the team's status. Einstein once suggested: "If I had an hour to solve a problem I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions". In order to be more purposeful and successful with their roster changes, the team needs to not only better understand and describe their problems they're trying to solve, but also articulate the features of the optimal player solutions based on the direction that GM Steve Staios is trying to implement. What they can’t afford to do is continue to blindly make splashes by throwing more 1st round pick and/or millions of dollars and cap space at a problem they haven’t even fully defined. To that point, there’s no question that the first step will be to secure a coach to start forward on the new direction in earnest. But from there, I really hope to see this kind of effort made to target more impactful and purposeful roster additions that actually hit the mark, and efficiently move the team towards its goal of making the playoffs next season.
Do you think the team needs to address other major needs, or think there are other major considerations heading into the off-season that haven’t been covered here? Please feel free to comment below, and as always thanks for reading!
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