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The Carolina Hurricanes kick off their 2023-24 season at home tonight, when they host the Ottawa Senators.
Over the last five seasons since Rod Brind’Amour took over as head coach, the Hurricanes have solidified themselves as a consistent playoff team, and more recently, a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
The team is coming off three straight regular season Division titles and have won at least one playoff round in each of those years, including a trip to the Eastern Conference Final last season. However, while the Hurricanes are still a fairly young group with a bright future, they’ve struggled to get over the playoff hump.
Last year, they were plagued by injuries, with both Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty out for the playoffs. Pacioretty then departed in the offseason, while Svechnikov is still recovering from his ACL tear, and will miss the start of the season.
But even factoring that in, the Hurricanes once again enter the season with a very well-built roster. Their defense group probably already had a claim to ‘Best in the NHL’ status last year, before the team added the top free agent blue liner of the summer in Dmitry Orlov, not to mention Tony DeAngelo as well. Carolina has seven very capable defensemen on their roster, so even in the case of an injury, they’re well-equipped on the back end.
Within the forward group as well, the Hurricanes’ young core is continuing to make more of an impact. Sebastian Aho signed a maximum-term extension this summer and will continue to lead the team up front, while Martin Necas is coming off a breakout year. Meanwhile, Jesperi Kotkaniemi showed huge signs of improvement last season, Seth Jarvis has established himself as an important member of the roster at just 21 years old, and veterans like Teuvo Teravainen and new addition Michael Bunting can provide secondary scoring.
The other key for the Hurricanes’ offense is their depth. From the line of Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook and Jesper Fast coming off a huge year, to Stefan Noesen and Jack Drury rounding out the group, Carolina has one of the better bottom-six groups in the NHL as well. Especially once Andrei Svechnikov returns, Carolina is looking pretty strong up front.
Then in net, both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta re-signed with the team this summer, while Pyotr Kochetkov remains an extremely capable call-up. Andersen and Raanta are just a season removed from their 2022 Jennings Trophy win, and even in the case of injury, the flexibility of three netminders should provide the team with solid goaltending.
Looking around the lineup, it’s pretty difficult to find any clear issues. Then factor in the team’s consistency on a nightly basis, with the number of truly ‘bad games’ seemingly even decreasing year after year. Their elite penalty kill also remains a staple for their success, ranking top-three in the league in each of the last three seasons.
Even around the Eastern Conference, teams who have been posed as barriers for the Hurricanes over the years like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins have taken huge hits to their rosters and aren’t entering the season as strong. Arguably the biggest Metropolitan Division threat outside of the Hurricanes is the New Jersey Devils, and Carolina was able to take them down in five games with a depleted roster during the postseason.
Essentially, everything is lining up for the Hurricanes to stand atop the East.
However, there are two key factors that could be the make-or-break for the Hurricanes’ Cup pursuit.
Something that’s plagued them over the last few years has been their inability to finish on their chances. You never have to question the team’s work ethic, and the actual creating of chances is rarely the issue. But every year, it seems like there are games where the Hurricanes completely dominate their opponents, only to come up short from an inability to capitalize.
To illustrate this: last year, the Hurricanes ranked second in the league in expected goals for at 5-on-5 during the regular season (according to NaturalStatTrick.com). However, they finished the year ranked 15th in the NHL in goals scored at 5-on-5.
Not helping this was the fact the power play really struggled through stretches of the year as well. By season’s end, Carolina ranked just 20th in the NHL on the man advantage.
Just think back to their Conference Final loss to the Florida Panthers. They outshot Florida badly despite being swept, firing 174 shots on goal across four games... with just six goals all series to show for.
Yet this offseason, you could argue the team really didn’t do a ton to actually address that concern.
Michael Bunting is the notable addition, and while his 23 goals in each of the last two seasons do point to the fact he can contribute, the Hurricanes still don’t have a ton of true game-changing scorers.
Last year, Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov were the only three forwards on the team with more than 20 goals. Looking back to the year prior, there were five forwards on the Hurricanes to reach the 20-goal mark, in Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck and Nino Niederreiter. However, two of those five players are now gone and Teravainen is coming off one of his least productive seasons throughout his tenure with the team, which saw him manage just 12 goals.
Essentially, the team is likely once again going to count on a combination of Aho, Svechnikov and Necas for a lot of their goals. While their defense provided massive contributions as well, and they can get scoring from down the lineup, it’s questionable as to whether they have enough legitimate scorers at the top of their lineup.
The second factor I’d point to is one of the very strengths I talked about before, but hear me out. Carolina’s goaltending is strong, and three capable options is a luxury that few other teams have.
Frederik Andersen was also very good overall in the playoffs for Carolina, posting a .927 save percentage in nine postseason games. However, I’d argue neither he or Raanta (or Kochetkov, yet) are true game-changing goalies.
Andrei Vasilevskiy was key to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s back-to-back Cups, and we all know the story with Sergei Bobrovsky last season in Florida's run. An elite goalie can make a huge dfiference, and while Carolina’s situation in goal is solid, they shouldn’t be counting on consistently winning a goaltending battle.
Andersen did post just a .903 save percentage throughout the regular season, and it’s been a trend that even when he’s playing well, he can allow some pretty weak goals at key times. Adding on to this, another huge factor is that injuries have been a concern for the Andersen/Raanta tandem, and with both netminders now 34 years old, health could continue to be an issue.
Again, this is not to say the Hurricanes’ goaltending is at all a weakness. Looking across the league, Carolina does have one of the healthier situations in net. But while they may have three capable options, they don’t have one true, high-end, consistent starter.
Now, we’ve seen teams get to a Cup without one. Just looking at the Vegas Golden Knights, the team rolled through a series of goalies throughout the year, before Adin Hill ended up backstopping the team to a Stanley Cup.
The reality is, the Hurricanes are also going to continue to be a locked-down team defensively. Last year, they had the lowest expected goals against in the NHL at 5-on-5, according to NaturalStatTrick. Even average goaltending will put the Hurricanes in a great position.
But goaltending is always going to be an x-factor for almost every team across the league, and losing the goaltending battle was a big reason for the Hurricanes being swept in the Conference Final. Again, that was much more about Bobrovsky's other-worldly postseason play than an issue with Andersen, but it goes to show that sometimes goaltending can make all the difference.
While Carolina’s situation in net is healthy, there will be teams they’ll face who are stronger in goal. If their inability to capitalize on chances remains a trend this season as well, goaltending then becomes that much more important.
Heading into the year, the Hurricanes have one of the strongest rosters in the NHL. Their blue line is top notch, and the team looks to have a realistic shot at capturing a fourth straight Division title.
While there are a ton of factors at play, if the Hurricanes can manage to get the goals they lacked at times last year, and their goaltending tandem/trio can remain healthy and provide consistency, it’s hard to picture the team not making a real run at their first Stanley Cup since 2006.
Puck drop for the home opener takes place tonight at 7 p.m. Carolina’s projected lineup is below (per the team website), with either Brendan Lemieux or Jalen Chatfield expected to be scratched, depending on whether the team plays with 12 forwards and six defense or 11 forwards and seven defense.
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