|
Is a Guentzel Trade Feasible? |
|
|
|
|
|
Every year there seems to be one player that Oilers fans focus on as a trade target. Last year it was Jacob Chychrun... this year it appears to be Jake Guentzel.
Guentzel is a 29 year old (turned 29 in October) left winger, drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013. He played his first NHL game as a callup back in 16/17 and has been a strong top six winger ever since. He has been at or close to a ppg player his entire career, has two 40 goal seasons, a 36 goal season, and likely would have more of both if not for a couple injuries and shortened seasons due to COVID. Currently he is on pace for a 38 goal season.
Guentzel has been Sidney Crosby's winger for most of his career. Over the past three seasons, Guentzel and Crosby have played 2495 minutes at 5 on 5. Compare that to the 178 minutes he has played with Malkin over that same time. Sid and Jake have outscored their opponents 137-101 over that period with an xGF% of 57.56%. Not a bad duo.
With all of this said, why would the Penguins trade a player like this? Well they may not have a choice. As of today, the Penguins sit 7th in the Metro Division. The asterisk to that is a mere 6 points separate 7th and 2nd and the Penguins sit just 2 points out of a Wild Card spot.
For the sake of this argument, let's suggest that two months from now, the Penguins find themselves losing ground in the East and out of a playoff spot. Guentzel is a UFA at the end of this season. Can Kyle Dubas risk letting Guentzel walk for nothing, especially if the Pens look like they are on the decline?
How could the Edmonton Oilers make this trade work? I see only two feasible options.
#1-Trade Evander Kane
There are things to like and dislike from this option for both sides. Evander Kane brings a heavy hitting, in your face element to the Edmonton Oilers as well as a scoring touch. His issues are his foot speed and his defensive game, both of which ended up with him being dropped from the top six to the third line. Kane has managed to still produce some goals in that position but far fewer than with McDavid or Draisaitl. It's also important to mention that Kane is now playing with Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark; not exactly offense juggernauts.
In this trade, the Oilers get a rental high end top six winger to improve their roster while the Penguins get a volume shooting, physical player who can play in the top six and is signed for another two seasons.
The perfect scenario here would be the Oilers trading a high draft pick and Kane to the Penguins in exchange for Guenztel at half salary retained. Edmonton would not only get a massive upgrade up front but by shedding Kane's 5 million dollar cap hit and only taking on 3 in return, they would have space to make another impact roster add.
Now that we're done dreaming, a few big issues arise with this proposal. First and foremost, Ken Holland did as Ken Holland does and gave Kane a NMC meaning that Kane would have to agree to go to Pittsburgh. Perhaps going back state side appeals to Kane but being traded from a playoff team to a seller likely would not.
The second issue here is that the Penguins would have to value Kane as I have laid out here. Kane has two more years on his contract at 5.125 million and is 32 years old. Players that play the physical style of game that Kane does typically start to fall off around this age which we may have started to see this season.
Overall I would say this move has a pretty small chance of happening.
#2-Trade Warren Foegele
This would be the Ekholm trade but for a forward; trading a good player plus assets in exchange for a better one. Warren Foegele and a 1st round pick in exchange for Jake Guentzel at half retained salary. Foegele makes 2.75 million meaning the Oilers are only taking on $250,000 in cap space.
Foegele has been excellent alongside Draisaitl and McLeod and while there is an argument for not messing with chemistry, Guentzel is just a vastly superior player in every way. The Penguins, in addition to a 1st round pick also get the opportunity to try Foegele out with Crosby and see if they have another value contract that can excel alongside Sid. This is the only other feasible way I can see the Oilers making space to acquire Guentzel (aside from moving Campbell which seems impossible).
---
If the Foegele trade occurs, how would the Oilers shuffle their lines? One issue with moving Foegele is that he is playing on the right side (shoots left). Here's a fun suggestion; slot McLeod back to centre on the second line and have Draisaitl and Guentzel as his wingers. The roster would look like this:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Guentzel-McLeod-Draisaitl
Kane-Holloway-Ryan
Janmark-Hamblin-Gagner/Brown
Option 2 - Load up the centres
Guentzel-McDavid-Hyman
McLeod-Draisaitl-Kane
Holloway-RNH-Brown
Janmark-Hamblin-Ryan
---
If Guentzel does hit the trade market, the Oilers should absolutely make a play for him. Guentzel is a legitimate top six threat and would provide an Oilers roster that is already buzzing with some added offensive depth.
Thanks for reading!
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»
