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5 Game Tough Test for the Oilers + Skinner and Nurse |
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The next five games should give the Oilers fanbase hopefully a better idea on where this years version of the team compares to the best around the NHL. Tonight the Oilers will face off against the Lightning, no longer the elite Cup threat they were for years but still a dangerous veteran team. Next they play a single road game against the Wild, a team that Edmonton has always struggled to play, even when they aren't sitting at the top of the Central Division as they are this year. After that it is back home to play the Golden Knights, a dangerous team that Edmonton has already lost to twice this year including a 1-0 loss at the start of the month.
The following week Edmonton will play their first game against the Panthers since Game 7 of the 23/24 Stanley Cup Finals followed by a matchup against the Bruins who after struggling through the early part of the season, firing their coach, have won their last 4 straight.
Edmonton likely is not going to win five straight here but at bare minimum the expectations should be to go .500 and be competitive in every game.
Let's talk about a few players.
I saw a number of people angry on Twitter that the Oilers did not trade for Mackenzie Blackwood. The former Shark, now Av has had a great start to his season with a 0.909SV% on a fairly mediocre Sharks team. His 0.908SV% at 5 on 5 is higher than Skinner and his 0.906%. Two things stand out for me here. The first is that the cost for Blackwood (a goalie in Georgiev and the picks) was too high a price for the Oilers to match and it is an area I do not believe needs to be addressed.
There are 25 goalies this season who have played 700 minutes or more at 5 on 5. Skinner ranks 21st in that with a 0.906SV%. As I noted, Blackwood with his 0.908 ranks 18th. Ulmark, Bobrovsky, and Georgiev are some notable names that rank below Skinner.
Since November 1st however of the 23 goalies who have played at least 500 minutes at 5 on 5, Skinner ranks 11th with a 0.915SV%. Blackwood ranks 16th with a 0.911%. Shesterkin ranks 21st with a 0.902%. Vasilevskiy, Binnington, Markstrom, and Lankinen are some of the notable names below.
Through his very young career (remembering this is a 26 year old goaltender) Stuart Skinner has been a slightly above average starter, capable of playing long stretches of excellent hockey with some rough patches. He is not a Hellebuyck, Saros, Swayman, Oettinger, or a Shesterkin but that is a very small elite group and even with Shesterkin this year we have seen how these players can dip.
The Oilers have limited cap space and assets to address this team. Skinner is the starter. If your argument is they need a better backup than Pickard I cannot fault your logic except to say what matter more in the playoffs, a backup who might not even play or a top 4 right shot defenseman?
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Speaking of defensemen, let's talk about Darnell Nurse. Normally that sentence is followed by all of the ways that Nurse is struggling and how his contract remains a blight on this team. While Nurse may never be a 9.25 million dollar defender, at the very least right now he is playing like a legitimate top 4 defenseman.
Since the beginning of November, Nurse and Stecher have posted a posted CF% (52.46%), GF% (4GF-2GA), and xGF% (60.02%) together. More simply put, since the start of November the Oilers are not getting caved in possession, shots, and goals when Darnell Nurse is on the ice. This has also been the case when Nurse plays with Kulak meaning that Nurse needs to be given credit for his play as of late.
Knoblauch certainly deserves credit for much of this due to his deployment of Nurse. He has been giving him a healthy dose of minutes with Draisaitl instead of McDavid and being very selective of which zone starts he is being given. Regardless, Nurse himself has improved his play, limited his lapses in the defensive end, and is carrying the puck with far more confidence and at the right moments, something he always struggled with.
A second pair right shot remains the biggest need for this roster but instead of finding a player to try and save Nurse and dig him out of a hole, they might instead be able to focus on just finding a very good player and letting Nurse handle his own game.
Thanks for reading!
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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