By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
The NHL website failed to provide data regarding the exact probability of winning a game on home ice when scoring first and holding a greater than 2:1 shot advantage vs. a team with a losing record and league-worst PP%/PK% on the second half of a back-to-back… but it definitely seems like the kind of a game you’re supposed to win, especially if you’re a team with playoff ambition. Which brings us to the question of what the Ottawa Senators are supposed to be right now, given that they not only blew a game they should have won, but failed once again to win a 3rd game in a row, and missed a chance to move themselves onto the right side of the .500 mark. Uncomfortable fan and media scrutiny must be more appealing than it seems.
NYI 4 - OTT 2 (NHL Highlights)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfy-XbW-Gfg/
The majority of the post-game interviews reiterated the same general message that they played an objectively good game, and would have won 90% of replayed games with the same level of effort. And while this is possibly true, it notably fails to take into account the reality that their opponent was a .500 team that was missing their top forward and a third of their regular D-men, which is not typically the case. To not understand that their statistical advantage was effectively decided before the puck was dropped reveals one of the major problems on this team in terms of expectations.
The Good - The Senators undeniably did a lot of things right in this game, as evidenced by their 31-13 shot advantage. Tim Stutzle was absolutely flying in this game, and led the team with 2A. Adam Gaudette scored 1G early in the first period, and is now once again tied for the team lead in goals. Josh Norris had 1G early in the second period to tie the game, which led to a lot of possession and shots. Unfortunately, far too many players seem content with possession and shots vs. actually winning the game. Being “hard to play against” is meaningless if you fail to translate your momentum into results.
The Bad - The Senators continue to make puzzling decisions with their goaltender deployment. Heading into this weekend, it wasn’t difficult to identify which of NSH or NYI was the better team in terms or record, or the more relevant game from a playoff perspective. Yet they inexplicably decided to play Anton Forsberg in this game, despite Linus Ullmark having nearly earned a shutout the night before, and the NYI having declared Ilya Sorokin as their starter for this game. And what was the result? A blown shutout for one G due to an absurd coaching decision to have the 4th line on the ice with less than 2min to play, followed by a 9-save .750 sv% performance tonight by the other G.
The Ugly - For just the 2nd time all season, the Senators lost a game where they scored the first goal. Unfortunately, they ran head-first into their near-NHL worst 1-9-1 record when trailing after the first period. And despite getting themselves back into position to win this game with an early 2nd period goal and a dominant 12-3 shot effort in the 3rd period, they blew the game with a careless penalty followed by an exceptionally poor PK effort. Winning in the NHL often comes down to a few critical moments, and they just don’t seem to have an accurate sense of when those moments are upon them, or how to manage them effectively.
This loss drops the Senators’ record to 12-13-2, which is 4 points ahead of their 11-16-0 pace from 2023/24. They remain 5th in the Atlantic Division, and 3pts outside of the 8th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Next up on their schedule is a rematch vs. ANA on Wednesday night, which is the final game of their recent home stand. Beyond that will be a a quick pair of road/home back-to-back games vs. CAR/PIT before they start on their extended 9-game road trip. Winning 2 of their next 3 would at least allow them to start that road trip from a .500 starting point, which seems like a reasonable goal.
What did you think of the Senators’ loss to the Islanders? Please comment below, and as always thanks for reading!
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