By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
The Senators rebounded from a terrible shutout loss last week to the Buffalo Sabres with unexpectedly strong performances vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins and Dallas Stars on the weekend. The wins have moved them back into strong contention for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and instead of the usual breakdown we’ll just let the positives of a 2-0-0 weekend speak for themselves. Instead, the midpoint of the season provides an opportunity to step back and assess some key positives and negatives from the season so far.
Mid-Season Press Conference (GM Steve Staios)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb9yk1Ca-0Q/
Most Senators fans would have been quite pleased if you’d told them at the start of the season that after 42GP the Senators would have a 21-18-3 record. They would have been even more pleased if you added that OTT would be within 2 points of BOS with 3 games in hand for 4th place in the Atlantic Division, and have a better winning% than the Bruins in addition to more regulation-overtime wins and a +28 goal differential advantage. So despite numerous ups and downs, the team is a full 10 points ahead of their 2023/24 pace, and looks poised to remain one of the main teams in Wild Card contention.
As such, it’s maybe a good time to reflect on the first 42GP of the season, and give out some highly subjective mid-season NHL awards just within the Senators’ roster. Basically, who would be the Senators’ nomination for each of the major NHL trophies, based exclusively on their performance so far in the 2024/25 season.
Richard Trophy - Brady Tkachuk
The goal scoring math speaks for itself with Brady Tkachuk, whose 18G leads the Senators by a healthy margin, and is very comparable to his team-best goal-scoring pace of 37G from the 2023/24 season. Even more impressive is that Tkachuk also leads the team in PP goals, Game-Winning goals, and OT goals. He’s also become the Senators all-time leader in OT goals at just 25 years of age, and is on pace this season to pass both Marian Hossa and Dany Heatley on the all-time Senators goal-scoring list.
Art Ross Trophy - Tim Stutzle
The overall point totals also speak for themselves with Tim Stutzle, whose 43Pts not only leads the Senators, but makes him the only player on the team with more than a point-per-game scoring pace. He’s both the team’s most dynamic and consistent offensive threat, as he leads the team with a recorded point in 30/42GP, which means he produces at least 1 point in 71% of their games. He’s also the team’s most effective ES offensive player by a wide margin, as he leads the team in both ES goals (12) and ES points (27), and leads all Senators forwards with a +6 rating.
Norris Trophy - Thomas Chabot
Some may question this pick, but few can dispute that Thomas Chabot is playing the best all-round hockey of his career. Despite losing time on the #1PP unit, Chabot has yet to miss a single game to injury this year, and emerged as the top ES D-man on the team. Much credit goes to Nick Jensen, whose support not only makes the D-pair a statistical darling (the pair leads the team in Corsi%, Fenwick%, and Expected Shots), but may even be helping to keep Chabot healthy by letting him skate with the puck instead of having to compensate for d-zone mistakes.
Vezina Trophy - Linus Ullmark
No surprises here, as Linus Ullmark created quite a buzz in leading the team to their first major win streak of the season. His arrival was meant to be a statement that the team would finally have stable goaltending, and when healthy Ullmark has provided that - highlighted by a 2.38GAA and 0.915 sv% that are both top-10 in the NHL. He also gave the team a glimpse of what is possible when he gets into a groove, and propels the team to a lengthy win streak. Now it’s just a matter of trying to find ways to keep him healthy, which could effectively decide their playoff fortunes.
Selke Trophy - Claude Giroux
It’s evident which players have the trust of the coaching staff by who gets ice time in critical game situations, and no Senators player is more trusted in this regard than Claude Giroux. Despite having recently turned 37, Giroux routinely plays 2nd line forward minutes, a #1PK line role where he plays the most PK of any forward on the team, and is top-3 in the entire NHL with a 60.9% Face-Off rate. The latter is even more impressive when you realize that he’s actually even more effective in terms of SH and Defensive Zone situations, where he wins >62.0% of the time.
Calder Trophy - Tyler Kleven
Many will say Leevi Merilainen deserves this trophy, but it’s not clear that 6GP of excellent work should overshadow what Tyler Kleven has done for 42GP. Kleven was expected to improve the defensive play of the 3rd D-pair, and take on the role of the largest and most physical D-man on the roster. However, because he’s one of just 4 D-men to play all 42GP, he wound up paired with Travis Hamonic, JBD, and Nicolas Matinpalo for pretty much the entire first half of the season. He’s obviously still learning, but the fact that he’s leading all D-men in hits and has just a -2 rating at mid-season is telling in terms of how well he’s adapted to the NHL with very limited support.
Masterton Trophy - Josh Norris
There were many questions about how well Josh Norris would be able to come back from a series of difficult shoulder injuries, or how well he would be able to adjust to a new coach who had not been witness to his career-best season. However, Norris has responded with a string of 42GP without injury, where he’s 2nd only to Claude Giroux in terms of Face-Off% and PK ice time, and 2nd only to Brady Tkachuk in terms of goals and hits. It’s been quite a good start, but the challenge remains to prove it can be sustained beyond 42GP.
Hart Trophy - Brady Tkachuk
Despite strong contention from the likes of Tim Stutzle and Thomas Chabot, it’s hard not to give the nod here to Brady Tkachuk. He continues to lead this team by example, and find ways to impact the game all over the ice. It’s also remarkable that he continues to play such an aggressive style with minimal injuries, as he’s missed just 1 of the team’s last 200GP, and is expected to reach the 500GP mark in the second half of the season. If the Senators do manage to hang onto a playoff position there will be few players with a more widely-anticipated playoff debut.
Letter Grades
Beyond just the trophy-nominated players, it can be interesting to quickly assess the overall roster in terms of letter grades (A-F). The players will be clustered based on their primary role, which also provides some indication of where there are softer spots in terms of performance.
Top-4F - Tkachuk [A], Stutzle [A], Batherson [B], Norris [B]
Middle-4F - Giroux [B], Amadio [C], Greig [C], Pinto [C]
Bottom-4F - Cousins [B], Gaudette [B], Gregor [C], Perron [D]
Depth-F - Ostapchuk [C], Reinhardt [C], MacEwan [D]
Despite most of the top-6F having had reasonably productive seasons, there’s room for a lot more production from the likes of Pinto, Amadio, Greig, and Perron… all of whom have signed contracts in the $2.6M-$4.0M range.
Top-4D - Chabot [A], Jensen [A], Sanderson [B], Zub [C]
Bottom-4D - Kleven [B], JBD [C], Hamonic [C], Matinpalo [C]
Goalies - Merilainen [A], Ullmark [B], Forsberg [C]
Ullmark’s health will be the biggest X-factor of the second half of the season, but when the top-4D are all healthy it makes a remarkable difference in terms of team defence. The fact that Sanderson leads OTT in both ice time/GP and worst +/- is clear evidence of the lack of viable depth beyond the top-4D.
Trophy nominations and letter grades aside, the Senators have unquestionably improved in many aspects of their play from last season, and are now either in the top-half of the league or close to it in the majority of high-level team statistics.
Winning% - 0.536 (16th, 7th in Eastern Conference)
Regulation/OT Wins - 21 (14th, 7th in Eastern Conference)
Goals/GP - 2.90 (20th)
Goals Against/GP - 2.83 (12th)
Goal Differential - +2 (18th)
%PP - 24.1% (9th)
%PK - 78.4% (17th)
Face-Off% - 52.6% (4th)
Hits - 1,115 (4th)
The team has also had one of the stranger schedules in the first-half of the season, which featured an extended 9-game road trip. Tankathon projects the Senators’ remaining schedule as the 23rd most difficult based on their opponents current winning%, while the Wild Card rival Detroit Red Wings have the most difficult schedule ahead. The difference gets even more extreme when you consider that DET will have just 17/40 home games in the 2nd half of the season, while OTT will have 22/40 at home - including 8 of their last 9 games of the season. So there's reason for optimism in the second half, if the Senators continue their improved defensive play.
What are your thoughts on the first half of the Senators’ 2024/25 season? Please leave your comments below, and as always thanks for reading!
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