The New York Islanders managed to extend their first round series against the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, grinding out a 3-2 double overtime win in Game 4.
After erasing an early deficit, then eventually taking an third period lead, the Islanders allowed the tying goal with under six minutes to go in the final regulation frame, squandering a late lead for the second time in the series. However, New York arguably had the better chances in a scoreless first overtime period, and then less than two minutes into double overtime, Robert Bortuzzo’s point shot redirected in off Mathew Barzal, leaving the Islanders with their first win of the series.
I think naturally, it’s easy to view the Game 4 win as the Islanders just delaying an inevitable fate. Facing a 3-0 deficit, it’s a tough road forward. Plus, with the Game 2 meltdown still very recent in the rearview mirror, it’s difficult tough to get too optimistic.
The thing is, in Games 1, 3 and 4, the Islanders were either the better team, or it was a 50/50 game at worst. They couldn’t capitalize on their chances in Game 1, didn’t really get the goaltending they needed in Game 3, then finally had some bounces go their way in Game 4.
Carolina, who was so dominant to end the regular season, has also not played up to what we saw of them post-trade deadline. They have yet to put together a full effort, and while that’s worrisome for the Islanders in a way, in the sense that they already find themselves in a hole with Carolina likely not playing up to their ability, more than anything, it’s an opening for New York.
So what will it legitimately take for New York to climb back into the series?
Special teams, and more so discipline, will remain maybe the most important aspects. The Hurricanes have capitalized on the power play as expected, going 4-for-14 on the man advantage. However, the Islanders have actually operated at the exact same rate on their power plays (at 2-for-7), right at 29 percent.
The difference is the Islanders have taken twice as many penalties as Carolina. We know based on the regular season that if New York takes penalties, they’re going to get scored on, so they need to find a way to limit the amount of opportunities they’re giving up.
Ultimately, Semyon Varlamov needs to be great as well. The one area where New York could possibly best Carolina for the remainder of the series is in goal. Frederik Andersen has been good overall, but he’s not unbeatable, and with Varlamov playing as consistently as he has been, he’s going to give the Islanders the goaltending they need.
At the same time though, New York has had a hard time converting on their chances most nights, and still have just nine goals across the four games. What they do have going for them though is that they’ve actually gotten some depth scoring, with Anders Lee stepping up his game in the playoffs, and all of Pierre Engvall, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Kyle MacLean scoring as well.
The Islanders need more consistent offense out of their top four forwards in Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. Barzal had two goals in Game 4 (while Horvat had two assists), but prior to that, each were held to a single point in the first three games. Noah Dobson also has just a single assist, after being such a key contributor from the blue line. At a certain point though, a team needs their top players to step up and reach another level, and New York is still waiting on that to be consistent from game to game.
Realistically, the Islanders’ odds of getting out of the round remain low. It’s well-documented how few teams have climbed back from a 3-0 series deficit.
However, that’s not the Islanders’ situation anymore, having taken the first step. There are a whole lot more teams who have climbed back from down 3-1, and if the Islanders can take Game 5 on the road, we’ll legitimately have a series. At that point, the series is going back to New York with a chance to tie it, and you’d have to think internal doubt on Carolina's end starts to creep in about their ability to finish the job.
It remains a longshot that the Islanders battle back to win this series, but a Game 5 victory at least makes things interesting. Based on how the teams have matched up thus far, it's not all that farfetched to see New York pushing off elimination once again.
Game 5 goes Tuesday night in Carolina.
OTHER ARTICLES FROM THE PLAYOFFS
- Previewing Round 1: Islanders vs. Hurricanes
- Islanders come up short in Game 1, fall 3-1 to Hurricanes
- Islanders blow 3-goal lead to collapse in Game 2, fall behind 2-0 in series
- Islanders on the brink of elimination after Game 3 loss to Hurricanes
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