In my last blog, a very concerned Oilers fan asked me about how the Oilers will manage to be cap compliant, prior to the season starting. The Oilers as of today sit $354,167 over the cap and still need to sign both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.
Let's start by signing both of these players. Holloway is a 22 year old winger who is coming off playing 38 games in the regular season, going 6-3-9. 3 goals and 2 assists of those numbers came in his final 6 games of the season. In the playoffs he played 25 games, going 5-2-7. Broberg played in only 12 regular season games, averaging 11:30 a game and had 2 assists. He appeared in 10 playoff games, averaging just under 16 minutes a game and had 2 goals and 1 assist.
Both players were making $925,000 last season and neither player has arbitration rights giving them very little power within these negotiations. A reasonable guess is that both players will make between 1.1 and 1.3 million next season on a one or two year deal. Let's go in the middle and sign both players for 1.2 million.
That leaves the Oilers now at $2,754,167 over the cap. So how do they become cap compliant?
OPTION 1: BARE BONES ROSTER
With a bit of juggling, the Oilers can ice a cap compliant roster. Corey Perry is sent to the minors, as is Troy Stecher and Josh Brown. That leaves the Oilers with 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies with
$183,333 in cap space. Another option could be sending Cody Ceci down, having Stecher play and the team could also have Corey Perry up as well. That still leaves the team with 12 forwards, 6 defense, 2 goalies and $295,833 over the cap.
Other options exist if the team can sign Broberg and Holloway for a bit cheaper. For example, if they can shave $100,000 total; say by signing Broberg at 1.2 and Holloway at 1.1 million, the team can have Corey Perry and Cody Ceci on the roster and be
cap compliant at $33,333.
These are workable options but involves a ton of extra shuffling and limits the flexibility the coach has on a nightly basis. This I believe will be a last resort and not how Edmonton will proceed.
OPTION 2: CODY CECI TRADE
Cody Ceci may have much in terms of value around the NHL, but this is not an untradeable player. Ceci is a third pairing player who plays a low event game and can contribute to a penalty kill. He has a cap hit of 3.25 but he is in the last year of his contract, making him a low risk add to a team. I don't see many playoff contending teams in the running for his services but could easily see a team like the Sharks, Kraken, Hawks, Blue Jackets, or Senators to name a few be interested in bringing a veteran to provide support.
The trade could be a 6th round pick or it could be "future considerations," the value the Oilers get in a Cody Ceci trade is cap flexibility. With Ceci off the books, the Oilers can have 13 forwards (Derek Ryan as the extra), 7 defensemen (Stecher as the #6 and Brown as a #7), and their 2 goalies. This team has
$495,833 in cap space. Ultimately I think this is the way the Oilers end up going, with their focus at the trade deadline being adding a top 4 RD.
OPTION 3: EVANDER KANE ON LTIR
Here is the complicated one. Evander Kane has dealt with a number of injuries these past couple seasons but the most prominent ones that we believe are still an issue are a hip injury and a sports hernia. There is a chance that the player may require surgery that could keep him out for months or potentially the entire season.
LTIR is a complicated beast and it isn't as simple as just putting the player on LTIR and having cap space. Here is a direct explanation of LTIR from PuckPedia:
If a team is cap compliant on opening day without using LTIR, or uses LTIR at any point during the season, the LTIR Pool is the Cap Hit of the LTIR player less the team’s cap space when the player goes on LTIR. For example, if a player with a $4M Cap Hit goes on LTIR when the team has $100K of Cap Space, the LTIR pool is $3.9M ($4M-$0.1M). Because of this, team’s often make several roster moves right before a player goes on LTIR in order to be as close to the cap as possible, in order to maximize the LTIR Pool
If a team cannot be cap compliant on opening day without using LTIR, the LTIR Pool is the amount the team exceeds the Cap. For example, if a team is $3M over the Cap and places a player on LTIR with a $4M Cap Hit for the opening roster submission, the LTIR Pool is the $3M that the team exceeded the cap
Put simpler, it is far more beneficial to a team to be cap compliant, prior to placing a player on LTIR than it is to already be over the cap and then place the player on LTIR. Edmonton could do this.
Going back to Option 1, the Oilers sign Broberg and Holloway at a combined cap hit of 2.3 million instead of 2.4. They send down Troy Stecher and Josh Brown and Derek Ryan, leaving the team with Evander Kane on the roster at
$33,333 in remaining cap space. Right before the season begins, the team then place Kane on LTIR to maximize their pool. When the season begins they could then recall the likes of Brown, Stecher, Ryan, etc with that new space.
Obviously there are other issues that can be created with Kane on LTIR, specifically if it is not a season long injury but that is a concern for another day and as the Oilers could find other ways to create cap space over the season in preparation for the deadline.
Regardless there are a number of options that are present for Jeff Jackson and the Edmonton Oilers in order to become cap-compliant. It's part of that reason that I don't think we see a Broberg or Holloway contract signed until much later in the off-season, as the organization continues to figure out where the chips will fall with the likes of Kane and Ceci.
Thanks for reading!
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»
