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Senators Prospect Rankings, 2024 Edition |
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By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
Late August feels like a good time to review the Senators’ prospect system, and there have certainly been some changes in the past year to the top-10. Senators GM Steve Staios added quite a few new faces to the prospect system at the draft, and hasn’t been shy about trading a number of other prospects. Gone from last year’s Top-10 list are the likes of Ridley Greig and Jacob Bernard-Docker (graduated to the NHL), Egor Sokolov and Roby Jarventie (both traded), and Lassi Thomson (returned to Europe). So there are at least 5 new faces on this year’s list, and (spoiler alert) there’s actually a 6th because one of the returning prospects from last year has dropped off this year’s list.
In the interest of transparency, the grading methodology used in this prospect summary was based on an assigned grade of 1-4 based on each prospect’s optimal NHL role (based on their most significant strengths, style of play, etc.), plus an assigned grade of A-D to reflect the probability of the player actually achieving that level of success. A modifier was then applied based on the stage of their development (+/-), in order to recognize players who are closer to having an NHL-impact in the near future. So there is a method to the madness, but it’s obviously still a highly subjective exercise. Whatever… time to review this year’s Top-10 list of Senators Prospects.
1. RD Carter Yakemchuk (CAN), 1st Round Pick 2024 (OTT)
Grade: 2A-, 11.5 Points
There shouldn’t be much surprise to see Yakemchuk at the top of this list. The Senators haven’t added a first-round quality talent to the prospect pool since 2020, and despite needing refinement to his game in terms of defensive zone coverage and decision-making, Yakemchuk is built for the NHL. He’s got the size and skating you want to see in a high-end D-man, plays an assertive offensive style, and isn’t shy to engage physically. They'll hopefully work with Calgary (WHL) to let him focus on developing more of a pro-level two-way dimension to his game, but the fact that he plays such a high-demand position at RD only increases the chances of him being a fixture of the team’s top-4D for many years to come.
2. G Mads Sogaard (DEN), 2nd Round Pick 2019 (OTT)
Grade: 2B+, 9.5 Points
Repeating at the #2 spot on this year’s list is Mads Sogaard, who remains the most promising G in the Senators prospect system. There are still some mechanical issues with his style to work on, but Sogaard has already proven capable of handling games at the NHL level when necessary, and the potential of a mobile 6’7 frame between the pipes is indisputable. The Linus Ullmark trade makes it unlikely for Sogaard to play more than an injury call-up role this year, but his new RFA deal means next year he’ll be on a one-way deal and expected to take over the back-up G role from Anton Forsberg.
3. F Stephen Halliday (CAN), 4th Round Pick 2022 (OTT)
Grade: 2B, 9.0 Points
It might raise some eyebrows to see Halliday ranked as high as #3 on this list, but he absolutely took over the B-Sens just a few games after transitioning from the NCAA, and was their undisputed offensive leader in the playoffs. His skating and defensive play may need some work, but he’s already got NHL size, great offensive vision, and elite-level passing skill. He’s easily the highest-potential scoring forward in the system right now, and with multiple 35+ players on the Senators’ roster and the uncertainty around Norris it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get an NHL call-up opportunity this season.
4. LD Tyler Kleven (USA), 2nd Round Pick 2020 (OTT)
Grade: 3A, 8.0 Points
Few prospects are more emblematic of what’s missing from the Senators’ roster than Kleven. He’s blessed with great NHL size, plays an assertive but disciplined physical game, and is surprisingly poised in terms of making safe transition plays in his own zone. Despite being drafted for his physical edge, he’s proven to be a capable all-round defender against high-level competition at the WJC and World Championships for Team USA. Interviews with GM Steve Staios have suggested that Kleven was specifically kept in the AHL last year to give him optimal development time, but the door is now open for him to become the defensive anchor of the 3rd pairing in training camp.
5. F Zack Ostapchuk (CAN), 2nd Round Pick 2021 (OTT)
Grade: 3A, 8.0 Points
It’s always encouraging when prospects quietly make the most of their opportunities, and that’s certainly become a calling card for Ostapchuk. He’s already been the captain of a WHL team at 18, won two gold medals on Canada’s WJC team by the age of 19, and earned a 7-game NHL call-up during his rookie AHL season. There may be a lack of high-end offensive tools, but Ostapchuk is virtually tailor-made for a 3rd line NHL role given his size, two-way ability, and physical presence. With the opportunities Staios has left open on the 3rd/4th lines, he may also be the most likely rookie forward to crack the NHL lineup.
6. RD Maxence Guenette (CAN), 7th Round Pick 2019 (OTT)
Grade: 3B+, 6.5 Points
The value of RH-shot D has been made clear in recent years, and Guenette stands as the most NHL-ready RHD of any Senators prospect. He’s also a rare example of a 7th round pick to earn an AHL all-star appearance, and a D-man whose offensive production is arguably more impressive in the AHL than it had been in junior. The current uncertainty at the #3 RHD position may be all the opportunity Guenette requires to make a case in training camp that he’s ready for a permanent NHL role.
7. G Leevi Merilainen (FIN), 3rd Round Pick 2020 (OTT)
Grade: 2C, 6.0 Points
It’s been an unusual development path for Merilainen, who in the past 3 years has played for an OHL team, a WJC team, a SM Liiga team, an ECHL team, an AHL team, and also had 2 starts in the NHL. However, he continues to play well in virtually whatever scenario he’s cast in, and the Senators have now cleared the path for his development with the Kevin Mandolese trade earlier in the summer. Expect Merilainen to play a clear #1B role in Belleville for the coming season, and likely take over as the #1G in the following season.
8. F Xavier Bourgault (CAN), 1st Round Pick 2021 (EDM)
Grade: 2C, 6.0 Points
First-round pedigree is in limited supply among the current group of Senators prospects, but GM Steve Staios was able to add some by acquiring Bourgault from EDM in exchange for the injury-prone Jarventie. Bourgault has yet to put all the pieces together at the AHL-level, but he’s just two years removed from helping to lead his Shawinigan junior team to a QMJHL championship. He’s also developed some decent two-way ability, so if provided with more of an opportunity in Belleville to refine his offensive game they may be rewarded with a solid middle-6 forward in a couple years.
9. RD Hoyt Stanley (CAN), 4th Round Pick 2023 (OTT)
Grade: 2C-, 5.5 Points
Stanley may be the third-ranked RD on this list, but his skating and defensive awareness may be the best among the three. His transition from the BCHL to the NCAA has been relatively seamless, and if there’s a RD prospect that plays more in the style of Zub/Jensen it would be him. Despite not being the most exciting D-man prospect, if there’s one thing the Senators have no doubt learned over the past few years it’s that solid two-way D-men who can effectively complement a more offensive-minded partner can be exceptionally valuable.
10. LD Jorian Donovan (CAN), 5th Round Pick, 2022 (OTT)
Grade: 3B-, 5.5 Points
Another very strong-skating D-man prospect is Donovan, who this year continued to exceed the expectations of his 2022 draft position. What started as a nice story about the son of Shean Donovan being drafted by the Senators has transitioned into some very notable achievements, including playing on Canada’s WJC team and winning a Memorial Cup with Saginaw. There are some concerns about his defensive game, and the degree to which he’ll be able to transition effectively to the AHL/NHL level. But at this point he’s earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of speculated potential, and the opportunity to continue to prove people wrong.
HM - F Javon Moore (USA), 4th Round Pick, 2024 (OTT)
Grade: 3B-, 5.5 Points
Regarded by many pundits as one of the potential mid-round steals of the 2024 draft, Javon Moore is a highly athletic 6’4 200 lbs winger who has the raw tools of a future power forward. His lower round draft selection was likely related to his decision to play most of the season with his Minnetonka HS team instead of the USHL. However, he finished the year as his team’s leading goal scorer, and was named a finalist for the Minnesota “Mr. Hockey” award. His game will need a lot of refinement, but his development should benefit greatly from playing at least 2-3 years with a first-class NCAA program at the University of Minnesota.
So that’s the list for this year, but one thing I really noticed was that for the first time in a while I could have written paragraphs for at least 10 more prospects, including Pettersson, Jenik, Boucher, Eliasson, Andonovski, Montgomery, Reidler, Ellinas, Nordberg, and Hamara... not to mention the likes of Johansson, Nikitin, Wallberg, Toure, Chiasson, Wallenius, and Sebrango. The lack of high-end talent remains a conspicuous issue, but with so much of the young core in place and signed long-term it’s really these kinds of supporting roles that will help sustain a competitive window for the team (even if just as trade deadline currency). It will be interesting to see how these players develop, and which actually wind up contributing to the success of the NHL team this year.
Do you agree with these top-10 prospects, or would you have ranked them differently or included someone else? Please leave your comments below, and as always thanks for reading!
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