You can find how this Blues team is different
here and my more in depth statistical preview
here but here are my four keys to the series.
Score 1st and survive the 1st period
The Blues are 11-2 when they score first and only 1-5 when the opposition scores first. The Bruins are equally as good as they are also 11-2 when they score first and have only won one game when the opposition scored first. Additionally, the Bruins hold a big 1st period goal differential with a +10 differential while the Blues have a -1 differential.
Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending
Tuukka Rask has been simply dominate this playoff season, easily the odds on favorite for the Conn Smythe trophy. Rask has yet to post a save percentage below 90.5% this post season. He has only posted three games below 91.3% and has posted six games at or above 96.8%. These are Tim Thomas type numbers with a 94.2% overall save percentage, up from 91.2% in the regular season.
Jordan Binnington has been good but not anywhere near as great, posting a 91.4% save percentage, down from 92.7% in the regular season. Binnington does have six games at 95.7% or above but has seven games at or below 90.3% with two of those being below 80%. Interestingly, Binnington has been better in the 3rd period than Rask has been this playoff season, perhaps adding more color to his “do I look nervous” comment.
Binnington is a perfect 8-0 against the Atlantic division, posting a 1.59 goals against average and a 94.7% save percentage. He also was fantastic against the Eastern Conference, posting a 1.85 goals against average and a 93.5% save percentage.
Rask was fantastic against the Central division but didn’t enjoy as much success, posting a 1.72 goals against average and a 94% save percentage but only going 5-1-2.
I don’t believe Binnington has to flip the script and end up with a Finals save percentage that is a percent and a half higher than Rask but the Blues will need Rask’s save percentage to regress down to around 91% or for Binnington to match Rask’s higher level.
Will Rask come back to earth? Will it include some low valley save percentages that regress his averages back to normal? Will Binnington “look nervous” in the Stanley Cup Final? Will the time off effect either netminder?
Stay disciplined and at least be even on special teams
The Bruins have arguably been the best power play producer this year, ranking third in the regular season and leading the post season with an incredible 34% thanks in part to a number of goals against the weaker Leafs penalty kill.
During the regular season, the Bruins had the best home power play conversation rate at almost 32%. Their penalty kill was middle of the road, ranked 16th stopping 79.9% of the chances but they have improved it a lot in the post season, raising it to 86.3% thanks to facing two of the worst power play units in the post season.
An interesting note from Round 1, over 40% of the goals in their seven game, 1st round series came on the power play. Would they have survived the series without such a high level of power play efficiency?
While the Blues power play conversation rate has fallen from 21.1% to 19.4%, this decrease is a result of a below 10% conversion rate against the Stars who had the 5th best penalty kill in the regular season and an insane 94.6% kill rate in the playoffs. Against the Sharks and Jets whose regular season average kill rate of 80% is in line with Boston’s 79.9%, the Blues converted on over 25% of their chances.
The Blues penalty kill has also regressed in the playoffs, down from 81.5% to 78%. This regressions is easily explained when you look at the quality of competition and frankly, I’m surprised it didn’t regress more. The Blues faced the 4th, 6th and 11th best power play teams in their three rounds. What may surprise you is that they had the least success against the Stars, the 11th ranked power play, stopping only 71.4% of the chances. They stopped 82.1% of the chances against the better power plays. This shouldn’t surprise Blues fans as they have played better against tougher competition all season. Will they continue to rise to the higher competition and stop 80+% of the 3rd ranked Bruins’ chances?
While the Blues penalty kill is significantly better than the Leafs, they can’t provide too many opportunities for the Bruins. While the Bruins penalty kill is average at best, they need to make sure they continue to take advantage of their power play opportunities.
Win the 3rd period, win the close games, win the series.
While on the surface it looks like the Blues only have a slightly better 3rd period goal differential, accepting that at face value would be a mistake. Once you remove empty net goals, the Blues 3rd period goal differential is more than twice that of the Bruins. The Blues have a +12 goal differential once you remove empty net goals while the Bruins only have a +5 adjusted goal differential. Half of the Bruins 3rd overall period goal differential is due to their +5 positive empty net goal differential. The Blues have a -1 empty net goal differential.
The Blues are 8-3 in one goal games this post season while the Bruins are only 3-4. When you remove empty net goals, the Blues record goes to 8-4 while the Bruins are 5-4.
As I mentioned earlier, Binnington has bested Rask in the 3rd period statistics, stopping an incredible 94.1% of the shots he has faced. Rask has been very good, just not as good, stopping 92.9% of the shots against him.
Can the Blues keep games close and continue their third period dominance?
Injuries may also play a part in the series. Zdeno Chara is expected back after missing Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Brad Marchand missed practice due to “maintenance” after appearing to injure his left hand or wrist in the Bruins scrimmage last Thursday. As a side note, I wouldn’t put much stock in David Pastrnak’s comments that Marchand was only “playing with the crowd a little bit” in regards to the left hand/wrist injury. Perhaps this is the case but if it is, it likely means Marchand has another nagging injury.
Robert Thomas has been taking regular maintenance days lately and did again yesterday. It’s clear he has a nagging injury but is expected to play tonight. Vince Dunn is skating again and is expected to play later in the series but is out tonight.
World Championship note
Congrats to Finland for winning the Men’s IIHF World Championship. Seems they took a page from the Blues?
Finland should hold both the Women’s and Men’s championships right now.
It’s a great day for hockey.
NHL Champions for Charity Playoff Edition
In what I hope becomes a Hockeybuzz tradition, Bruins Hockeybuzz writer
Anthony Travalgia and I placed a wager on the series. If the Blues win, Anthony has agreed to make a donation to the
Gateway Area Multiple Sclerosis Society (@mssociety on twitter) whose mission is help each person affected by MS in St. Louis address the challenges of living with MS. They help by raising funds for cutting-edge research, driving change through advocacy, facilitating professional education and providing programs and services that empower people with MS and their families to move their lives forward. I picked this charity to honor Blues anthem singer, Charles Glenn. Read more about Charles’ battle with MS
here. If the Bruins win, I will donate to the
JDRF (@JDRF on twitter) whose mission is improve lives today and tomorrow by accelerating life-changing breakthroughs to cure, prevent and treat T1D and its complications.
Sharks Hockeybuzz writer
Steve Palumbo and I placed a wager on the series. Since the Blues won, Steve should be making a donation to the
Gateway Area Multiple Sclerosis Society (@mssociety on twitter) whose mission is help each person affected by MS in St. Louis address the challenges of living with MS. They help by raising funds for cutting-edge research, driving change through advocacy, facilitating professional education and providing programs and services that empower people with MS and their families to move their lives forward. I selected the MS Society to honor St. Louis Blues Anthem singer Charles Glenn. Read more about Charles
here.
I hope that our wagers will inspire players and fans to pledge donations for each win their team makes in the NHL playoffs.
NHL Champions for Charity Regular Season
Given that the Predators pulled out the division title, all be it not without some controversial officiating in the last couple of games, Best Buddies Tennessee
https://www.bestbuddies.org/tennessee/ is the beneficiary. Best Buddies Tennessee is dedicated to establishing a volunteer movement that creates opportunities for one-to-one friendships, integrated employment, leadership development and inclusive living opportunities for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. As a side note, I recently got to experience a Best Buddies even in the St. Louis area that was led by the Eureka high school football team. It was a lot of fun and brought a lot of joy to those involved.
It’s a great day for hockey.
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