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Last summer, the Los Angeles Kings made yet another major offseason addition to their forward group, acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets.
It was a big commitment for Los Angeles, not just in trade assets, but also in cap space. As part of the deal, Dubois signed an eight-year contract with the Kings, carrying an $8.5 million cap hit. That said, he looked like the perfect fit to slot in as the team’s second-line center, and should’ve instantly made a difference in the forward group.
One year into the deal though, and there’s almost surely some buyer’s remorse. Dubois had a disastrous first year with Los Angeles, managing just 16 goals and 40 points, prompting speculation that a buyout could be considered already. However, this was quickly shot down by general manager Rob Blake, who confirmed there were not plans for a Dubois buyout.
Rob Blake also said today there are no plans to buy out Pierre-Luc Dubois https://t.co/3MLsr7XcX8
While Blake may have already noted there won’t be a buyout though, is this the correct decision for the Kings?
Perhaps the biggest reason for a potential buyout would be based on Dubois’ age, and what that means for the structure of a buyout. Typically, it would require two-thirds of the remaining salary to be paid out over twice the numbers of years left on the contract. However, because Dubois is just 25 years old, this would be a chance for the Kings to do it at one-third cost.
In this scenario, for the next seven years, a buyout penalty would cost the Kings between $1.6 million and about $3.8 million (year-dependent), according to CapFriendly. From 2031 onwards until 2038, Los Angeles would then have a $1.13 million penalty against the cap.
Obviously, no matter how you slice it, it would be an incredibly significant buyout for the organization. But at the same time, this would be their only opportunity to really get out of the contract.
Now, as Rory Boylen noted in a Sportsnet article discussing the contract, it’s also possible the Kings may not even have the option of a one-third buyout, depending on when the NHL playoffs end. The buyout window usually opens 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final ends, and Dubois turns 26 years old on June 24, which could make him ineligible for a one-third buyout.
But assuming the Kings at least did get the option, there’s at least legitimate merit to the thought of a buyout.
If Dubois can’t turn things around, it could jeopardize the team’s entire salary cap structure for the foreseeable future. At $8.5 million per year, Dubois will account for almost 10 percent of the team’s total cap space, and while the cap will rise through the duration of his contract, that’s a sizeable chunk even in the later years. With the extra cap space, the Kings could look for a better alternative.
There’s a chance management’s decision to not buy out Dubois could also be rooted in a bit of a sunken cost fallacy. The team traded away Gabriel Vilardi, among other pieces, to bring in Dubois, and buying him out would mean admitting a mistake. But assessing the current situation – independent of previous invested assets – is the only way to get an accurate read on the options available.
At the same time though, can Dubois turn things around?
The reality is he’s only in year one of an eight-year contract, and is still in his mid-20s. Dubois’ age puts him right in the window where he should be playing some of the best hockey of his career. That’s to say that Dubois should at least be in a position to find his game again.
We also saw Dubois struggle during his first season in Winnipeg. Following the trade out of Columbus, Dubois managed just eight goals and 20 points in 41 games. The following season, he rebounded for a 28-goal, 60-point year, before posting the best results of his career in 2022-23 with the Jets.
If Dubois is able to bounce-back to be consistent for 25-30 goals and 60-70 points, the Kings are a much better team than they would be without him. He could also possibly get an extended look playing on the wing next season instead, to see if it can alleviate some of the responsibility and give him a little bit more freedom.
Still though, committing to not buying out Dubois takes things out of management’s hands, and really puts all faith in the player (and Jim Hiller), being able to turn things around.
This isn’t to argue that a buyout is the correct course of action, or the reverse. But this offseason could serve as the one opportunity the team has to get out from under the deal, with as limited impact as possible. If they wait another year, and worst-case scenario strikes with a similar season from Dubois, Los Angeles has basically no way out. The contract would result in a much more significant buyout penalty, and the deal would be utterly untradeable.
It seems clear that the Kings have made their decision not to buyout Dubois, and will instead hope for a bounce-back. We’ve seen Rob Blake seemingly go back on his comments previously though, when he noted that Todd McLellan would remain in place for the rest of the season as head coach, before firing him a few weeks later.
But opting to forego a buyout is undoubtedly a gamble, with the organization signalling they’re in it for the long haul with the forward. It’s a decision that will end up having huge implications for the team in the coming years, one way or the other.
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