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During a busy offseason for the Carolina Hurricanes, one of the biggest pieces of uncertainty revolves around whether the team will be able to bring back Jake Guentzel.
While it seems as though there's still a chance the team could ultimately end up re-signing the winger, all reports point to him testing the market in free agency on July 1. Elliotte Friedman had even reported the Hurricanes were willing to trade his signing rights for a mid-round pick. However, in a summer that’s bound to see a ton of turnover on the team’s roster, losing Guentzel could be the biggest blow.
In order to acquire Guentzel from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the trade deadline, Carolina parted with a sizable package, including Michael Bunting, three prospects, and a second-round pick. But from the time he arrived, Guentzel arguably exceeded expectations, posting eight goals and 25 points in 17 regular season games.
He was a perfect fit on the team’s top line, finding chemistry with Sebastian Aho. One of the Hurricanes' biggest issues in recent years was that while there was rarely a lack of chances, the team could often struggle to bury their chances. But with Guentzel in the lineup, it felt like Carolina’s forward group was more capable and dangerous than ever.
Obviously though, Guentzel is set-up for a massive pay-day. I’ve projected what Guentzel’s contract could look like at HockeyComparables.com, which can be viewed below:
But while extending Guentzel won’t come cheap, there’s certainly an argument that Carolina should do what it takes to re-sign him. Especially with a Martin Necas trade seemingly inevitable, the only real high-end forwards the Hurricanes have under contract heading into next year are Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov (with a Seth Jarvis extension expected as well). The Hurricanes are in their window to contend, and with other players departing too, losing Guentzel really hurts the team's chances.
The one concern with a Guentzel extension is that he’ll be 30 years old this year. So while we can expect high-end production in the front half of the deal, the final few years of the contract could be rough as Guentzel declines. Considering the Hurricanes are building their forward group mainly around players who are a half-decade younger than Guentzel, him declining too early could cause major issues in the team’s ability to sustain as a contender later on.
Still, if Guentzel walks away, the team will really struggle to replace him this summer. Guentzel will arguably be the top free agent on the market, so even if Carolina looks to sign a forward or two, they won’t have the same impact as the winger. If the Hurricanes look towards a trade to improve their forward group instead, almost any forward providing close to Guenzel’s impact will cost major assets. Patrik Laine is available, but his production has been inconsistent at times from year-to-year, and after missing the majority of this past season, we don’t know exactly what kind of impact he’ll have when he returns to action. But with Guentzel, we’ve seen how well he fits in Carolina, and we know he’d be of high-end production for the years to come.
Carolina has consistently done a great job with their asset/cap management, and we can expect Eric Tulsky to operate with a similar philosophy behind his moves. But Guentzel is the kind of player that’s worth a big contract – and with limited options available to replace him, not re-signing the winger could actually be a bigger risk to the team’s contending window than extending him on a huge contract.
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