Deprecated: Automatic conversion of false to array is deprecated in /var/www/hockeybuzz.com/classes/clsBlog.php on line 243 HockeyBuzz.com - Ben Shelley - Season Recap: Did the Ducks make any progress?
The Anaheim Ducks played their final game of the 2023-24 season roughly two weeks ago, capping off another disappointing year for the team.
Despite a strong start to the season, things quickly fell apart for Anaheim, who ended up finishing 14th in the Western Conference. The Ducks were able to win nine of their first 15 games of the season, but followed up with only 18 wins in their remaining 67 games from there. It marks the sixth straight season in which the Ducks have missed the playoffs.
While missing the postseason was always a realistic (and expected) outcome, the season was about making strides towards a more competitive era. I’ve already written about some of the successes of the season, which can be viewed below.
But with Greg Cronin’s first year behind the bench now in the rearview mirror, were the Ducks able to take a step forward? Apologies in advance, but buckle up for about 2,500 words as we recap the year, and look to answer that question.
Comparing the Numbers
Looking at how this year’s group compared to last year, points-wise, they were basically in the exact same position. While they did increase their win total from 23 up to 27, they managed just 59 points, a year after hitting only 58 points. They didn’t finish last this year, but that just speaks to how bad Chicago and San Jose were.
Then in terms of offense, the Ducks saw no improvement, managing 2.48 goals per game, compared to 2.51 goals per game in 2022-23.
However, Anaheim actually did take a bit of a step defensively. Last year, the Ducks averaged a league-worst 4.09 goals per game, and while they were still imperfect this year, that dropped to 3.57 goals against per game. Then on top of that, they had a lower expected goals against per game, which sat at 3.44, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. Again, not great, but a little better.
In terms of special teams: Anaheim did see a bit of improvement on their power play, going from 15.7 percent in 2022-23 (31st) to 18.3 percent (23rd). It points to just how much trouble Anaheim had scoring at 5-on-5, but at least it’s something. The penalty kill, on the other hand, was just as bad though. It operated at 72.4 percent this year (31st), compared to 72.1 percent in 2022-223 (also 31st).
So at least statistically, there wasn’t a ton of major progress made.
However, that’s not the only way to judge progress. Part of it is about successfully integrating young talent, so below, we take a look at how each part of their roster looked, position by position.
Forwards
Obviously, Frank Vatrano was one of the highlights of the Ducks’ season, exploding for 37 goals and 60 points in a breakout year. Nobody could’ve expected that kind of success, with no track record pointing to that ever being possible. The one caveat to his big year is that considering his age and contract status (UFA 2025), there’s a very likely chance he may not be part of the long-term makeup of the roster. Nevertheless, it was a great year.
In terms of the other Ducks’ veteran forwards aside from Vatrano though, the levels of success were a little more mixed.
Troy Terry took a bit of a step back, but it shouldn’t be any reason for concern. He only scored at an 82-game pace of 22 goals and 58 points, but was still one of the team’s best players even in a down year. Anaheim needs more talent in the top-six, and that’s coming as young roster players continue to develop.
Alex Killorn was decent, and while he missed some time, I think he was a good fit while in the lineup. The Ducks overpaid for him in free agency, but he was never worth $6.25 million to begin with, and his production was always going to decline outside of Tampa Bay. Overall, Killorn proved to be a good add.
Ryan Strome performed about as expected, but perhaps that’s because most fans would’ve lowered their expectations for him coming into the year, after his first season with the Ducks. He managed 41 points yet again, but has failed to provide the kind of impact the team was likely hoping for when they signed him. Still, he’s a fine middle-six forward.
In terms of the young talent though: Trevor Zegras had a disappointing season, getting into only 31 games and producing at a lower rate than expected. That said, he was better after returning, posting eight points in his final eight games of the year. Without a full year, it’s difficult to really assess his development, and the hope is he can really hit the ground running in October.
Meanwhile, Mason McTavish took a step production-wise. While he still needs to round out his game a bit, he’s on his way to establishing himself as a long-term, high-end center.
Then of course, Leo Carlsson making the jump to the NHL right away was a bonus, and he never really looked out of place. Some load management and injuries kept him out of the lineup for a lot of the year, but 29 points in 55 games as a rookie is a great start. Carlsson has no shortage of talent, and could become the team’s next franchise forward.
What we get down the lineup though is a lot of forwards still trying to carve out a spot for themselves.
Max Jones can show flashes of being a more capable player, but if he’s going to be around for the coming years, it should be as no more than a fourth-line winger. We’ll see what his next contract looks like.
Meanwhile, Isac Lundestrom, while turning into a fine depth center, has failed to really take his game to another level. He can provide a good defensive impact and does have offensive upside (especially when he attacks with speed), but at this point, he looks like he’d be best suited as a fourth-line center.
Brett Leason also had a good end to the year and could be a candidate to return, while Ben Meyers and Benoit Olivier-Groulx provided a bit of depth. Meanwhile, Ross Johnston was brought in to play a very specific role, and while we can debate whether he’s really needed to play that role with the team, I suppose he was basically what anyone would’ve expected.
Lastly, Jakob Silfverberg’s Ducks’ tenure came to an end, retiring from the NHL after over a decade. While Silfverberg may not have provided the same impact in recent years that he did in the mid-to-late 2010s, he had a massive impact on the organization.
Then in terms of the trades impacting the forward group: the Cutter Gauthier/Jamie Drysdale deal could end up going down as a franchise-altering move. While we only got to see Gauthier suit up for the Ducks in their season finale, there should already be excitement around what he can do next season.
In the major deadline deal: Adam Henrique was in the midst of another good year, posting 18 goals and 42 points in 60 games, before Anaheim flipped him and Sam Carrick to the Edmonton Oilers at the deadline for a package including a first-round pick. It’s tough to see Henrique go, and while his departure seemed pretty much inevitable, the Ducks got good value in the return.
Factoring everything in, the forward group took another step this season, even if some things didn’t pan out. We’re starting to see the long-term pieces fall into place with all of Carlsson, Zegras, McTavish, Terry and now Gauthier likely locks to be top-six pieces for the Ducks for the foreseeable future. Mix in the veterans in Vatrano, Killorn and Strome, then any depth pieces that return in Jones, Lundestrom and Leason, and the team’s forward group may not look all that different next year. With others like Sam Colangelo, Pavol Regenda and Nikita Nesterenko getting into action as well, the team will have options for any limited remaining spots.
More than anything, it’ll be a matter of the Ducks’ young forwards continuing to develop. But this year, they were given the space and opportunity to do so, and you can argue that most took advantage. Especially after this season, the possible long-term core of the forward group is really starting to take shape, and while the team’s progress may be slow given it’s tied to these players taking steps, the Ducks are heading in the right direction.
All of Carlsson, Zegras and McTavish have lots of room still before reaching their respective ceilings, and Gauthier could make an immediate impact next year. So while the team’s offense could end up looking pretty similar next season, and the team had their scoring issues this season, we can expect a more dynamic offense next year as young talent takes another step.
Defense
On the blue line, I think things went about as expected. The group was improved with the veteran additions and integration of young talent, even if it was still a work in progress.
Cam Fowler gets a lot of criticism, but I think it’s important to factor in how much misuse could play a factor in his struggles. For the last three years on a very thin Ducks blue line, Fowler’s role has been increased to the point where he’s averaging more than 24 minutes per game. For reference, Radko Gudas averaged the second-most minutes per game of any player on the team, at 19:30, and he was almost a full five minutes less per game than Fowler, which is an almost unbelievable gap.
On most contending teams, Fowler would probably be a second-pairing defenseman facing easier matchups, playing around 20 minutes per game while paired with a strong, defensive partner. He can transport the puck and add some offense, but just isn’t the kind of player who should be relied upon to do it all. Fowler still managed 39 points this season and brings value, but he's overexposed in a way that’s beneficial for neither himself, nor the team.
On the flip side, Radko Gudas was basically a perfect fit on Anaheim’s blue line this year. In a year where Fowler had the worst plus/minus on the team, at a brutal minus-36 rating, Gudas was better than any other player on the team, at plus-14. Defensively stable, physical, and great in battles, Gudas was a piece that the Ducks were sorely missing a year ago, and it’s hard to picture him having much of a better first year in Anaheim.
After their two veterans though and following the trade of Ilya Lyubushkin, the rest of the group was made up of prospects and defenders trying to secure a full-time role for themselves.
Obviously, Pavel Mintyukov was the standout in terms of Ducks’ prospects on the blue line, posting 28 points in 63 games and showing signs that he could be the team’s next No. 1 defenseman. It didn’t come without growing pains, and Mintyukov does need a better read at times on when to jump into the play and when to play a little more conservatively, but his season remains a massive success.
Jackson LaCombe’s rookie season may not have had the same level of intrigue around it, but was nonetheless a positive as well. I think the main thing for LaCombe will be about trying to establish himself as a player that fits into the team’s long-term plans. With so many other blue line prospects coming up, he may get lost in the mix, but averaging over 19 minutes per game while starting the season at 22 years old remains a solid feat. His upcoming contract may tell us something about how the organization views him, but expect a bridge deal.
Olen Zellweger also joined the roster near the end of the season, providing some reason for excitement. Zellweger was maybe the frontrunner to make the Ducks coming into the year, but ended up heading to San Diego, where he posted excellent numbers. While it was a small sample size with the Ducks, we can expect Zellweger to be an NHL regular next season.
Then with Urho Vaakanainen and Gustav Lindstrom, both were pleasant surprises. I think either probably remains a fringe NHLer next season if they return, factoring in possible additions to the blue line in the offseason, but I think both proved they can play a depth role on the blue line.
Despite how the season went, the Ducks’ defense was still a big step up from 2022-23. Especially considering how young the group was, I think there’s a lot to like. The majority of this blue line will be back next season, and with another year of development, I think we should see improved results next season.
Goaltending
The story of the season in goal was how much of a workload Lukas Dostal was able to take on.
After splitting the previous year between the NHL and AHL, Dostal made the full-time jump to the Ducks’ roster this year. By the end of the season, Dostal had taken on a huge workload, essentially splitting time with John Gibson.
For Dostal, it’s a huge sign that he’s going to be the netminder the organization was hoping he’d become. At only 23 years old, Dostal was able to post a .902 save percentage on a weak team, which was basically right on pace with the league average of a .903 save percentage.
With time and a better team in front of him, Dostal projects to be a legitimate starter.
For John Gibson though, slice it however you want, but an .888 save percentage for a veteran netminder who was at one time considered to be one of the best in the world doesn’t look good. It marks the fifth-straight year that Gibson has posted a negative goals saved above average.
To be fair, Gibson’s end to the season, where he posted an .838 save percentage across his last eight games, did obliterate his numbers. But his workload and stats both continue to decline and we can expect the Ducks to run with close to a 50/50 workload split in goal next season, as Dostal continues to take over the crease.
What Comes Next
While reaching the playoffs was never likely, it was important to see the Ducks take some steps. Based on where they finished, that improvement is a little hard to quantify. But actually breaking down their direction and roster pieces, Anaheim is still moving in the right direction. They were able to integrate all of Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LacCombe, and later Olen Zellweger into the lineup. Other young pieces in Mason McTavish and Lukas Dostal were able to grow their respective roles. The results didn't come this year, but the Ducks are building a roster that can compete long-term, and I think next season, they get a lot closer to the playoffs.
With so much young talent, Anaheim would improve with time as players continue to develop – though more additions could help expedite the process. I think we could certainly see Anaheim look to add a right-shot, defensively reliable defenseman, and possibly another forward this summer. Plus, they'll benefit from yet another top-five draft pick, which never hurts.
I think a big question will be what the team wants to do at center. While the team could run with a one-two-three punch of Carlsson-Zegras-McTavish, if the plan is for Zegras to be featured more on the wing long-term, I wonder if Anaheim looks to add a veteran third-line center. Ryan Strome can play there if needed, but it seems like he’s still better off on the wing for any extended periods.
Regardless, we could see another notable addition or two over the summer, but again, the Ducks’ main catalyst for improvement will be the development of their young talent. Considering we saw players integrated, fit well, and take steps, the season can be viewed with a bit of positivity for those reasons alone. Anaheim’s long-term core is taking shape, and there should be some excitement for the coming seasons.
In terms of what comes next for offseason Ducks’ coverage here: for the month of May, I’ll be putting out a weekly article. This won’t include any breaking news, which could end up resulting in additional posts, but I’ll have a new post out every Friday, touching on a different topic regarding the team.
Check back next Friday for an article assessing Pat Verbeek’s tenure as Ducks’ General Manager to this point.
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