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“I don’t want you to come to Nashville to retire, I want you to come to Nashville to win.”
- Barry Trotz
Trotz is onto something with this quote. It’s long overdue that we retire the cliched mentioning of cowboy hats and guitars whenever the Preds are mentioned. The reason a player should want to become a Nashville Predator needs to be to win. Low taxes, great to raise a family, etc. can all be incredible negotiating points, but winning needs to be put at a premium. And, as we have seen, if winning is not at the forefront, then your services are no longer needed in Nashville. Occam and his razor would approve.
As for on-ice play . . .
The major problem that many Preds fans, myself included, had with David Poile of late was the clear lack of vision in the final 5 or so years. The chasing of a Cup, which we can all understand, loomed heavy in his mind. It does for me and I’m not in the business of winning one, so I fully understand his desire and sole mission to bring Lord Stanley’s Cup to Nashville. 42 years at the helm of an NHL franchise without one can do that to a man. After 26 years leading the Preds, Poile has finally stepped aside. The amount of good he has done for hockey and for Nashville in particular, cannot be overstated, and I cannot thank him enough. It’s safe to say my love for hockey is in large part due to that man. But a new era has begun. An era that has come as quite the culture shock, literally, to many who are inexperienced to such sudden changes.
This era, of course, is that of Barry Trotz the manager, something that seems to already be very different from that of Barry Trotz the coach. An evolving commitment to the process no matter the feathers he may ruffle on that journey. Many have argued in the past that Trotz would be a rich-man’s version of John Hynes, defensively minded while grinding out 1-0 and 2-1 games. How would this translate to management? You know, the Trotz Islanders days. A strong team, but not really one that would keep your eyes glued to the game. But now, the hiring of Andrew Brunette, a high-flying skill-based coaching style throws a wrench in the Trotzian heuristic. The days of winning 1-0 is gone. The days of high possession and a 7-5 win are the more likely experience. I’m ok with that. But where are the goals coming from? Defense undoubtedly remains present regardless of style. It’s the Nashville way.
As the legendary Scotty Bowman would be the first to tell you, one cannot manage the way they coach and vice versa. It’s a different world. If there’s one thing we can be certain about Trotz, it’s that he’d rather overextend a player in Milwaukee than to bring him immediately to the show not being ready. This history helps us analyze the culture shift taking place. It’s going to be a grind and oftentimes confusing to the casual observer and experts, alike. But rest assured. There’s a plan.
So let’s get to the analysis . . .
There’s a youth movement and these guys need minutes, but the Trotz process does not include forcing failure upon young, impressionable players with tons of upside but in want of confidence. The 5-year plan starts now, if you can call it that. The common hockey adage is that you have to re-build through the draft. But perhaps there’s a different way. Whatever the process is, there’s once again hope in Nashville.
Johansen Trade & Duchene Buy-out
It’s impossible to change the culture and system without fully committing. It’s like keeping your ex-girlfriend’s number in your phone after you’re in a new relationship. You’re never fully committed because you’ve left one foot out the door. The new path isn’t going to work because you aren’t committed to it. Poile struggled with deleting the number. Trotz beat the phone with a hammer and discarded anyone who may even attempt to convince you of how good life was before.
The offloading of Nino, Ekholm and Granlund demonstrated the beginning of the shift that change was in the air. Jeannot was likely a different story with TBL bringing an offer the Preds couldn’t refuse as opposed to him not being a viable part of any plan moving forward. TBL was making another push and Jeannot fits into that heavy style. He still fits into that TBL mold with the recent Maroon exit.
As for the two contractual elephants in the room, they have undoubtedly been available for some time (think exposure in the expansion draft two years ago, the recent trade of Johansen, and the rumored shopping of Duchene). The term and dollar amount remaining on both made such a move virtually unappealing to anyone, unless the Preds were willing to stomach some tough moves to ensure a more hopeful path forward.
Johansen still has the attributes of being a solid center, he’s just no longer a number one that Nashville had hoped when he was acquired from CBJ. His remaining 2 years at $8m/year explains the hockey and business decisions that were made to get the deal to Colorado done. The deal makes sense for Colorado because Johansen still has skill and he will be surrounded by guys who know how to score and make plays. 2 years at $4m/year isn’t a bad gamble for them. Although it’s always tough to eat money as was done here through 50% retention (2 years $4m/year), this freed up a roster spot to play with.
The real consternation for Preds fans comes down to the decision to buy-out Matt Duchene, a player who has produced considerably more than Johansen and arguably is still performing well. There’s more to it than a simple explanation. The quote at the beginning of this article seems to be a shot across the bow from Trotz. Duchene loves Nashville and will, most likely, ultimately retire here. He has a young family and perhaps Trotz thought he wasn’t in winning mode. There’s nothing wrong with being content, but contentment doesn’t bring championships. This was not a numbers move because no matter how you frame it, the Preds did not benefit from this monetarily or cap hit. Ownership will save roughly $4.6m over the course of 6 years, while the cap space saved is:
$5,444,444; $2,444,444; $1,444,444; $6,444,444; $6,444,444; $6,444,444. Duchene signed a one-year deal at $3m with Dallas, so he’ll come out ok and almost made whole. People need to also remember that the league won’t view this as cold-hearted as many pundits are portraying it to be. It’s a new GM with a new vision. Duchene was always Poile’s diamond in the rough when he first sought to get him in the Turris deal. We were able to get Duchene a bit later via free agency because, well, he wanted to retire here.
Free Agency
The Preds made somewhat shocking moves come July 1 based on the common conception most pundits and fans had following the aforementioned moves and Trotz’s own comments somewhat degrading, for lack of a better term, the ensuing free agency class. Nonetheless, a vision is starting to become evident with the moves that were made. I’ll focus here on the NHL-signings but will give honorable mentions to Anthony Angello and Troy Grosenick who will be solid AHL additions. Angello could find some time in gold next season too based on the way he closed out his 22-23 season with the Admirals.
UFAs
Ryan O’Reilly, center, from TOR 4-year $4.5m/year
Luke Schenn, D, from TOR 3-year $2.75/year
Gustav Nyquist, RW, from MIN 2-year $3.185/year
The trend here is not speed and youth, but all 3 of these players absolutely suck playing against. They step up when it counts and make you earn every single inch. O’Reilly and Schenn in particular know how to win and know what it takes. Every night is a battle and these players will show everyone how it’s done.
RFA re-signings
Cody Glass 2-year at $2.5m/year
This is a contract that will allow Glass to demonstrate whether he has what it takes to make it in this league. The former 6th overall pick has to find the back of the net. His future in the NHL depends on it.
Alex Carrier 1-year at $2.5m
This is Carrier’s make it or break it year. He never become an Ellis-type replacement player we had hoped for, but if he can stay healthy this year it’ll be his time to shine. He has a solid outing, he will earn a bit of term. But if it’s similar to the past few years, he won’t be back in gold.
Draft Re-Cap
I’m not as in tune with this year’s draft class as I usually am, but from watching highlights and reviewing their playing styles there’s a clear trend that is being created: Skill as a premium with size or speed as a secondary factor. The players will not be ready to be in gold for some time, but the sky is most certainly the limit for many of these players. While I wanted Michkov, it seemed as if he was committed to going to Philly. I’m very pleased that the Preds did not part ways with Askarov. Hearing the idea that he became available a few hours before Round 1 was unnerving. I’d part ways from Saros before I even considered parting with Askarov. We need to keep everyone on the same trajectory and elite goaltending is hard to come by in this league.
Below is a detailed list of Preds action on the two days of the draft:
Round 1
15 Matthew Wood, UCONN Hockey East NCAA RW/C
24 Tanner Molendyk Saskatoon Blades WHL D
Round 2
Preds traded #47 and #147 to Detroit for #43.
43 Felix Nilsson Rogle BK JR. Sweden Jr. D
46 Kalan Lind Red Deer Rebels LW
Round 3
68 Jesse Kiiskinen Pelicans Finland Jr. RW
Preds traded #79 to Dallas for 2024 3rd round pick and 2024 6th round pick.
83 Dylan MacKinnon Halifax Mooseheads QMJHL D
Round 4
111 Joey Willis Saginaw Spirit OHL C
Preds traded #115 to TBL for a 2024 4th round.
121 Juha Jatkola KalPa Kuopio Sm-Liga Finland G
Round 5
143 Sutter Muzzatti R.P.I ECAC NCAA F
Round 6
175 Austin Roest Everett Silvertips WHL C
Round 7
Preds traded 2024 7th round pick in an honorary trade between Poile and the Preds first captain and current NJ Devils GM for #218.
218 Aiden Fink Brooks Bandits AJHL RW
What’s Next?
According to Capfriendly, the Preds have roughly $8.7m of cap space for the 23-24 season with 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies filled on the NHL roster following their Free Agent frenzy and recent RFA signings. This leaves one additional spot up for grabs on the 23-man roster come opening night. Evangelista is likely the target for this spot, which would bring the available cap space to around $8m. However, he, like Livingstone, is waivers exempt so he could find himself going back and forth.
I’d argue that Trotz and Co. do not see the youth success at the end of last season to be a fluke. Remember, until the 23-24 season opens, teams are able to go 10% over the cap. This year the cap is $83.5m so the Preds gain an additional $8.35m to play with and make something interesting happen. Trading for someone with term isn’t likely in the cards because next season brings forth a ton of free agents needing new deals. The pending free agents come July 1 next season are:
UFAs:
Trenin, Novak, McCarron, Sherwood, Smith, Barrie, Carrier, Lankinen
Trenin and Novak will be back if they continue their current play. Sherwood is a toss-up. Barrie is also a potential short-term deal if he has a strong year offensively. MCarron, Smith are likely gone. Lankinen will be a mixture of how he performs this year and how much Askarov progresses. He’s closer than not to being in gold.
RFAs:
Tomasino, Parssinen, Fabbro.
Tomasino and Parssinen will be back. No brainers, unless something crazy happens.
Fabbro is likely traded or not re-signed, unless he has a huge year. I hope he does because the potential is still there, but we can only hope for potential for so long. He’s on a one-year deal for a reason. Similar situation to Carrier.
It’s never ideal going into one season without commitment to all of your players, but it’s just a fact if this team wants to compete. It’s critically important to look long-term. The biggest headaches that must be dealt with for any player will be the cap hurdles beginning this season and extending most significantly through the 25-26 season.
Dead Cap Hits
23-24: roughly $8,805,556 (Johansen and Ekholm cap retention; Turris and Duchene buyouts)
24-25: $11,805,556m
25-26: $8,805,556
Where does the current roster likely stand?
Forsberg – ROR – Parsinnen/?
Sherwood Parsinnen/Novak - Evangelista
Nyquist – Glass – Tomasino
Trenin – Sissons – Smith/McCarron
Josi – Schenn
McDonagh – Barrie
Lauzon/Carrier/Fabbro
Livingstone is waiver exempt so he will likely float back and forth between Milwaukee and NHL depending on need, etc.
It’s an interesting thought experiment playing with the potential lines and who can be added across the league from the UFA market or trade. It’s easy to put on your NHL EA Sports hat, but trickier to operate in reality. Defense could use another shutdown defender, but the true need is a top line center and a true scorer.
Let’s look at the most popular trade options first:
Alex Debrincat
Debrincat is an RFA currently and he’s looking for something at 8 years north of $8m AAV. He’s a bona fide goal scorer but I’m not willing to do it. I’m not giving anyone more than 4 years for the foreseeable future with 5 being a rare possibility to sweeten the pot. The Preds are recovering from crazy deals and are paying the consequences. I’d be willing to make it happen if we could get a 4-year deal, but that’s not going to happen. He will hold out and get what he wants. It’s a nice theory, but Preds and their fans should move on. Anyone Ottawa would want, we wouldn’t want to part with.
William Nylander
Nylander has another year left at $6.962m before he’s a UFA next summer. He’s not going to take a discount to his peers in Toronto and will stop nothing short of $9m and likely wants 8 years too. This is the more palatable option compared to Debrinkat and the current $6.9m cap hit could make an interesting option as a smaller amount goes a ton further in Nashville than in Toronto. Nylander would be someone I’d flirt with 5 years in the event we could make a trade happen.
He’s 27. Toronto’s cap predicament continues and the loss of Schenn and ROR means they have holes to fill. They need tenacity all around their lineup and they have certainly added that with Bertuzzi, Domi, and Reeves. The backend still needs some. A Lauzon could be of interest. I like the player on a bottom pairing, but the way Preds fans, etc. talk about him it’s difficult to sell someone everyone doesn’t like. I’d still consider it. I think he would fit very well in Toronto. But I know the response already, excited for your comments back.
Brett Pesce
Pesce has entered the conversation lately. He’s 28 with a current cap hit a little north of $4m until he’s a UFA next July. It’s an interesting conversation and would be a nice addition, but I’m not sure why the focus would be here. The Preds have to have someone to offer. A Carrier or Fabbro would work I suppose, but you have to remember if you don’t want someone and/or they are on an effective try-out bridge, why would another team want them? The biggest selling point here is that Carolina is looking for a bottom 4 due to their recent pickup of Orlov. They now have Skej, Orlov, Burns, Slavin. A Fabbro would actually fit into their lineup very well.
Alexis Lafreniere
To really make it interesting, someone I’d really be looking into would be pending RFA out of the Big Apple: Alexis Lafreniere. Rumors are NYR may be moving away from him. How substantiated this is, I have zero idea. But I’d strongly test the waters here. How could we make this work? Well, we know that now is the time for NYR to make a move and win and Laviolette knows how to do just that. Chris Drury coming out and saying the rumors are false holds about as much weight as Trotz saying he wasn’t interested in any UFAs. The ongoing negotiations with K’Andre Miller also limit the amount of money NYR have for both with there being about $6m+ in cap space for both players with Miller likely searching for around $5m in his own right. The Rangers need some help with the cap as they’re obviously veteran-discount shopping as seen in their most recent additions, most close to league minimum.
Kaapo Kakko
For similar reasons as mentioned above, Kakko could be of interest due to him carrying a $2.1m cap hit this season and becoming a UFA next July. Taking him off the books for the Rangers and permitting them to sign Miller and Lafreniere could be a way to sweeten the pot too. For both of these players, NYR would likely be looking for a bottom 6 due to their win now mode and top six being pretty covered with the usually suspects.
And then some UFAs. I doubt the Preds explore further in this category. But in the event we were all curious . . .
Vladimir Tarasenko
I would absolutely love this pickup if the Preds could make it happen. I’d honestly consider breaking the bank this season to test out this Russian sniper. Rumor is he wants term. But I wager he ends up taking a one-year somewhere. Why not Nashville? How about a one-year at $7m or two-year at $13m? I’m sure we could get more creative, but I’d be sniffing around this one. Injury history aside, it would be a fun experiment. Pure goalscoring is most certainly the most glaring issue on the Preds current roster.
Partrick Kane
I put this on here because you’re all thinking it, so we may as well say it. I’ll just leave it at that. It’s not a terrible thought. Just because, why not?
I could continue writing, but I guess it’s best to wrap things up and save it for another day. As the possibilities are endless in this sport.
Nashville Predators Blogger • 
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