By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
If the Ottawa Senators should fall just a couple of points short of making the playoffs this year, it will be hard for them to not look back at the first 16 games of the season with a profound sense of regret. Despite having home-ice advantage vs. a sub-.500 team, a 37-19 shot advantage, a 2/6-0/2 PP advantage, a 61% faceoff advantage, an 18-6 turnover advantage, and having held 4 separate leads of 2-1, 3-2, 4-2, and 4-3, the Senators managed just an OT-loss against the Flyers on Thursday. Naturally, one point in the standings is better than no points, but this game could have given them the benefit of a 3-game winning streak to build off of. Instead, they’re left with yet another game that questions their ability to shake a reputation for manufacturing ways to lose.
PHI 5 - OTT 4 (OT) (NHL Game Highlights)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR5wPrh9Fe8/
Giving up high-momentum goals at key moments absolutely 100% cost OTT this hockey game, and it remains a troubling pattern. Goals against from the first-2 shots of the game killed them last year, and it reared its head once again. Dominating periods with nothing to show for it has been an issue, and sure enough they found a way to go into the 2nd intermission tied 2-2 despite a 26-7 shot advantage and having had a lead with just over 1 minute left in the period. Giving up goals in batches has cost them multiple games this year, and sure enough they surrendered 2 goals in just over 2 minutes late in the 3rd period to blow another hard-earned lead. Any one of those would have been a problem worthy of discussion… the combination of all 3 was beyond frustrating to watch.
The Good - The Senators clearly did a lot of things well in this game, and if they had gotten even one save at a key moment they likely would have earned 2 points despite their multiple errors. They dominated the majority of this game, and played with good energy… it’s just a matter of limiting their key mistakes. The revised top line of Tkachuk-Norris-Greig led the way once again with 2G-3A, 11 shots, 8 hits, 60% faceoff wins, and a combined +5 rating. The D-pairing of Chabot-Jensen had another solid night, with a combined 2A, 6 shots, and +2 rating. Adam Gaudette scored his 7th goal of the season, which should have been the insurance marker, but still makes him the only NHL player in the top-50 of goal-scoring to have less than 13min/GP of ice time (10:39min/GP).
The Bad - The Flyers played very poorly for the majority of this game. You can’t expect much good to happen when you get outshot 13-3 and 13-4 in the first two periods of a road game. That is, of course, unless you catch the Senators on “Mandatory Regression Towards Mediocrity Night”, which on Thursday featured a masterclass by Linus Ullmark on ways an NHL goaltender can cost you a hockey game. It was a legit 64-minute effort as well, given that he managed to give up 1G on 3 shots in the 1st, 1G on 4 shots in the 2nd, 2G on 9 shots in the 3rd, and 1G on 3 shots in OT. It’s obviously just one game, and Ullmark played well in BOS/TOR… but this was Korpisalo stuff. Also, there seems to be something off with the D-pairing of Sanderson-Zub… they were a combined -5 in this game, Zub doesn’t really look 100%, and it may be time to reel Sanderson back a bit because he’s been exposed for key goals against on several occasions over the past few games. He’s also now a -9 on the season, which ties him for 5th-worst in the league among NHL D-men.
The Ugly - The problem the Senators have with yielding high-momentum goals just keeps rearing its head. Ullmark was certainly part of the problem on this night and probably should have had at least 2 of their goals, but he wasn't alone. For all the good they did on this night, how do you lapse so much in your defensive awareness to give up a breakaway to Konecny... their top-scoring forward by a mile... at such a late stage of the 2nd period after working so hard to earn a 2-1 lead? Why is Kleven of all people pinching aggressively in the offensive zone late in the 3rd period of a 4-3 game, where they’ve already given up a bad goal to allow the Flyers to get back into a game they have no business being in? They desperately need to find a way to defend leads more aggressively without putting themselves into these kinds of high-risk odd-man situations where the other teams are routinely exposing them and just flat-out robbing them of points.
Let’s also be clear about the statistical importance of having the lead at intermission. They’re now 7-1-0 when leading after 1 period, and 6-1-0 when leading after 2 periods. Not leading or tied…
leading. That means the goal they gave up with just over 1 minute to play in the 2nd period took them from a situation where they were 6-1-0 to a situation where they’re now 2-6-1. It's also not just a this year thing... last year they were 24-5-1 when leading after 2 vs. 13-36-3 when they weren’t… and 26-2-2 the year before vs. 13-33-6 when they weren’t. Now obviously being tied isn't the same as being behind at the intermission, but the difference in starting the 3rd period with a lead really can’t be overstated - and should be front-of-mind for anyone on the ice in a situation to protect a late-period lead. It’s maybe time for a sports psychologist to get involved, because they’re never going to string more than 2 wins together if they persist in disrespecting the importance of their leads late in periods/games, and refuse to play a more defensively responsible style at critical times.
Despite the loss, it was actually the first “loser point” the Senators have earned this year, and semi-improves their record to 8-7-1 on the season. This is slightly better than the 8-8-0 record they held at the same point last season, but it represents a lost opportunity to extend their winning streak before taking on a more challenging stretch of games vs. CAR, VGK, EDM, VAN, and CGY. That little gauntlet will start on Saturday night vs. CAR, who currently have the best winning % and goal differential in the Eastern Conference. Of course, the Senators have demonstrated a tendency to perform better against high-quality opponents this year, so it’s hard to know what to expect. That said, at this point they will most likely be the underdog in all 5 of those games, which means they’ll need a far better performance in goal if they expect to have even a .500 record by the 20-game mark of the season.
What did you throw at the television during the Senators’ 5-4 OT loss to the Flyers? Please leave your comments below, and as always thanks for reading!
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