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Senators’ Roster Facelift: Next Steps |
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By Ken Hawkins (a.k.a. khawk)
There has been relatively little movement from the Ottawa Senators since the flurry of action leading up to the start of free agency. However, it would be hard to suggest that GM Steve Staios hasn’t addressed the absolute top priorities of their off-season. This would include: resolving the goaltending situation, trading Jakob Chychrun, adding a defensive-minded top-4D, and re-signing RFA Shane Pinto. That said, the Senators roster was in need of revisions beyond that scope, and the team still has ~$3.5M in cap space to spend. However, they still only have 10 confirmed forwards for the coming season, so at most that cap space reflects a maximum additional AAV of ~$1.9M (i.e. assuming the last 2 forward spots are for near-league minimum $0.8M AAV players).
So what does GM Steve Staios need to focus on before the start of the season? What follows here is a review of the current status of the team’s top-6 forwards, bottom-6 forwards, top-4 defence, bottom-3 defence, and top-2 goaltenders, including a relative grade, estimated % of cap allocation, and assessment of whether there is likely to be changes before training camp in the fall.
Top-6 Forwards: 8/10
Tkachuk [W], Stutzle [C], Giroux [W], Norris [W], Batherson [W], Pinto [C]
$39.8M AAV, 45.3% of Salary Cap
One of the key strengths of the Senators’ lineup is their top-6, which features a good mix of skill, size, veterans, and youth. Norris is definitely the wild card of the group, but the RFA signing of Pinto gives stability to the 2nd line, and the UFA addition of Perron gives them a veteran who can move up the lineup to support, as needed. Over the past 3 seasons they’ve only had 71, 90, and 91 combined GP from Norris/Pinto, and Stutzle had something of a sophomore slump in his 2nd season in the #1C role. So improvement is definitely possible from this group, if Green can get them mentally and physically prepared for the expectations of the coming season.
Next Steps: This top-6 forward group is pretty much set, and their collective success will really be a function of health and preparation. It will be interesting to see how they deploy Norris/Pinto, but one way or another they’re a far better team when both are playing in the lineup.
Bottom-6 Forwards: 5/10
Perron [W], Greig [C], Amadio [W], Gregor [W]
$8.3M AAV, 9.4% of Salary Cap
If there’s one part of the Senators’ lineup that’s still actively under construction, it’s the 3rd/4th lines. In addition to trading Joseph, last year’s 4K collection (Kastelic, Kubalik, Kelly, Katchouk) have all been removed, and it’s likely MacEwan will be buried in the AHL. Greig is the only carry-over from last year, as Staios went out of his way on the first day of free agency to add Perron, Amadio, and Gregor as veteran support. He’s also amassed a number of AHL-eligible depth forwards to further support this group, including Highmore, Gaudette, Rees, and Jenik. Drafted AHL forwards Crookshank and Ostapchuk will also get strong consideration in training camp.
Next Steps: Given the extent of the turnover among the bottom-6 forwards, it’s hard to know at this point how effective they will be. However, given that Greig is the youngest of this group and last year had more than 2x the faceoffs taken vs. the other 3 veteran depth forwards combined, you have to think Staios may still be looking for another C.
Top-4 Defence: 7/10
Sanderson [LD], Chabot [LD], Zub [RD], Jensen [RD]
$24.7M AAV, 28.1% of Salary Cap
The most significant player removed from the team during this off-season is unquestionably Jakob Chychrun, who was immediately traded to WSH for Nick Jensen once it became clear that RHD were going to be such hot commodities on the UFA market. The trade wasn’t as major as some might have liked, but it achieved two key objectives - adding a veteran defensive presence at RHD, and not getting stuck with a contract with an irrational AAV/term. Chabot and Sanderson are quality puck-moving D-men, and should benefit from additional PP minutes. Zub will no doubt appreciate having more support in terms of managing key defensive assignments and PK minutes.
Next Steps: With so little cap space remaining, it’s pretty clear that this will be the top-4D group heading into the season. The hope is that more defensive support from Jensen will enable Chabot/Sanderson to be more aggressive with their offensive play, but developing chemistry among the D-pairings in training camp will be critical.
Bottom-3 Defence: 4/10
Hamonic [RD], Kleven [LD], Bernard-Docker [RD]
$2.8M AAV, 3.2% of Salary Cap
If there’s a major soft spot on the projected roster, it would be among the #5D-7D. Staios went out of his way to remove Brannstrom from the #3LD spot to make room for Kleven, but there’s limited LD depth beyond that. Bernard-Docker and Hamonic are both capable of playing a depth RD role, but their upside is quite limited. They also have Guenette pushing for an NHL role after a strong AHL season, who will be waiver-eligible this fall. Given his stay-at-home nature, it’s not impossible that Hamonic could be shifted to the LD side in a pinch, but there are legitimate questions about this group.
Next Steps: There’s a small amount of cap space remaining, and Staios may be looking for opportunities to add another veteran D-man to this group. Bernard-Docker would be the logical inclusion if they were exploring a trade, but if the market for him is too soft they may just wait and see how everyone looks in training camp and risk waivers.
Top-2 Goaltenders: 7/10
Ullmark [G], Forsberg [G]
$7.8M AAV, 8.9% of Salary Cap
The most celebrated move of the Senators’ off-season was the much-anticipated trade for Linus Ullmark, who brings a degree of quality to the Senators’ net that they haven’t had since Craig Anderson. Whether a matter of goaltending or team defence, the Senators had nothing short of a catastrophic 2023/24 season in terms of goals allowed and %PK. Even an average season from Ullmark would be a significant improvement, and help give the team a chance to win on a more regular basis. Forsberg is reliable enough in the back-up role, and there’s quality AHL depth in the form of Sogaard/Merilainen.
Next Steps: The last thing Staios wants is for his biggest trade as Senators’ GM to end with Ullmark going to UFA next year. Expect a lot of work to be done to sign Ullmark to a long-term extension, which could very likely include full NMC protection.
% Cap Proportions
What’s quite striking about the distribution pattern resulting from this breakdown is the relative proportions among these groups in terms of the % of the cap they account for. Whether intentional or not, it could be revealing a general sense of thresholds that Staios and the management team are leaning towards in terms of balancing salary cap investments. Based on the existing roster deployments, the proportions are generally as follows in terms of the % cap space allocation, projected AAV, actual AAV, and salary range within each category:
Top-6F - 45% - $6.6M Proj. AAV, $6.6M Actual; $3.8M-$8.4M Range
Top-4D - 30% - $6.6M Proj. AAV, $6.2M Actual; $4.1M-$8.1M Range
Top-2G - 10% - $4.4M Proj. AAV, $3.9M Actual; $2.8M-$5.0M Range
Bottom-4F - 10% - $1.5M Proj. AAV, $1.7M Actual; $0.8M-$4.0M Range
Bottom-3D - 5% - $1.5M Proj. AAV, $0.9M Actual; $0.8M-$1.1M Range
Even as just a general framework, we can compare this with the current roster to see where there is the most significant variance - which could be something of a predictor of future changes. For example, this model would suggest that an extension for Ullmark could fall into the ~$7M-$8M range without disruption to other roster areas, if they promote one of Sogaard/Merilainen into the back-up role by next year and increase their relative cap spending at G by 1% to bring it up to the expected % cap allocation. The model also suggests the Perron signing deviates from the standard AAV for a bottom-6 role, but this reflects that the signing provides insurance against another major injury to Norris.
From a pure cap distribution perspective, the most significant gap would have to be the Bottom-3D, where they appear to be under-spending by ~40%. This would translate to the addition of: a) a more established #5D on the 3rd pairing in the $2.0M-$2.5M range (which implies removing one of the existing Bottom-3D), or b) another veteran depth D-man in the $1.0M-$1.5M range to help bolster the LD side. However, from the perspective of a pure roster need, a veteran C to bolster the Bottom-6F may be the more critical addition. Playoff-quality teams are typically strong down the middle, and it’s unclear how much Staios will be willing to risk by over-relying on their young C.
Do you agree that these are the most important remaining needs for the Senators to address? Please leave your comments below, and as always thanks for reading!
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