Follow @stlgoalie

***UPDATE*** - Edited to add the conditions
As many of us speculated, the Blues were likely going to be in the market for a defenseman given the medical situation of Jay Bouwmeester. Well GM Doug Armstrong didn't wait long to fill that need, obtaining Marco Scandella from the Montreal Canadiens for a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a conditional 4th round pick in 2021. Brenden Dillon had come off the trade market just 20 or so minutes earlier, going from the Sharks to the capitals for a 2nd round pick and a conditional 3rd round pick with the Sharks retaining 50% of Dillon's cap hit.

Like Bouwmeester, Scandella is a left defenseman. He carries a similar cap hit ($4 million vs $3.25 million) and also will be a UFA at season's end. Scandella actually would seem to be a bit better fit than Dillon. Over the past 2+ seasons, Scandella averaged 2:16 of short handed minutes per game compared to Bouwmeester's 2:20 while Dillon only averaged 1:28. Scandella also averaged 19:50 of total ice time during that period, 1:03 less than Bouwmeester but 1:49 more than Dillon. Given that the compensation was less though I would have suspected a 3rd rounder, not a 2nd rounder, the Scandella acquisition appears to be worth the gamble. The Blues simply had to insure themselves relative to what became a pretty big whole to fill in the lineup.

Even more telling might be that Dillon had a 51% offensive zone start ratio, while Scandella had 49.8% and Bouwmeester had an incredible 43.6%. A very illustrative stat on how much the Blues relied on Jaybo as a defensive stalwart on the back end.

It's being reported that the conditions are as follows - If either 1) STL re-signs Scandella before 10/7/2020 or 2) the Blues win two rounds and Scandella plays in half the playoff games or more, Montreal will receive the Blues fourth round pick in 2021.

Of course, this means Mikkola has been sent back to San Antonio.
*********************************************************************

The Blues season has been a season in contrasts. This tale of two seasons has been the flip side of last season, going from almost first to almost worst. Well, at least not cumulatively, at least not yet.

Calendar year 2019 represented the first half of the season, 41 games. Through it, the Blues had earned the 2nd highest points per game, on pace for 119 points. Only the Washington Capitals were better (121 pace). They were 4th in goals against per game, 7th on the power play and penalty kill, and 9th in shots against per game. While they were in the middle of the pack or worse on offense, ranking 23rd in shots per game and 13th in goals per game but it didn’t matter.

They were winning two thirds of their one goal games (3rd best rate) and had won almost 82% of the games in which they scored first (also 3rd best rate). All of this was being done with middle of the road shot statistics, SAT% Close ranked 15th and USAT% Close ranked 17th. They also were not getting a lot of power play time, ranking 25th in the league. It appears the wins were coming thanks to their 5th best 5v5 save plus shot percentage and their six overtime wins.

Once the calendar flipped to 2020, the switch appears to have gone off for the Blues, earning points at a 4th worst rate of 44.4%, not even two thirds the rate during the 1st half of the season. You’ve heard the phrase defense wins championships, well it sure seems that for the Blues, defense earns points.

During this abysmal stretch, the Blues have actually improved their goals per game ranking four spots to 19th, two spots in their power play to 5th, and one spot in shots per game to 22nd while getting more power play time, ranking 22nd.

Unfortunately, for Blues fans, their defensive rankings have fallen off a cliff, giving up the highest goals against per game of any team in 2020, giving up over a goal more per game at 3.61 per game. The penalty kill has been extremely poor, ranked third worst at only 70%. It appears to be a quality, not quantity issue as the Blues are giving up shots per game at the 9th lowest rate.

Making matters worse, they have the league worst record in one goal gams in 2020, winning only 25% of those games. Their winning percentage in games they score first dropped to 50%, 27th in the league. Their combined 5v5 shooting and save percentages dropped to 17th in the league.

Something else you may want to note and file away, especially when considering what some see as “advanced” statistics, the Blues USAT% Close ranking improved during this poor performing time, moving to 12th from 17th while their SAT% Close ranking stayed the same.

Of course, the medical situation with Jay Bouwmeester makes managing this deadline and trying to climb out of this bad stretch an even more difficult situation. Sure the additional of Vladimir Tarasenko would be nice to have in the lineup but replacing Bouwmeester, his minutes and his role will be extremely challenging. More on the deadline in the coming days.

As to more pressing matters, Coach Berube is trying to shake things up with new forward combinations tonight:
Schwartz–O’Reilly-Schenn
Sanford-Thomas-Perron
Steen-Bozak-Kyrou
Blais-Sundqvist-Barbashev

The defense looks much the same. I’m not likely the only one who is a little disappointed by this as I’d like to see Niko Mikkola get into a game. Perhaps that happens Thursday or Friday. Note that Jordan Binnington is expected to start.

It’s a great day for hockey.

Join the Discussion: » 12 Comments » Post New Comment

» There is no quit in these Blues

» Helter Skelter Game 3

» Blues play a stronger game two and keys to game three

» Blues play weak in Game One

» Often less is more at the trade deadline