Tonight, we will find out who wins the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. Bedard seems like a sure fire star player who will greatly change the fortunes of whatever team lands him. While the Penguins are in the draft lottery they are not eligible to land Bedard. The best the Penguins can do is move up ten spots which would be significant. The Penguins are currently 14th overall so getting to fourth is a significant jump in the odds of getting an impact player. More importantly, the odds of getting an NHL capable player, sooner.

I’ve been pretty transparent about wanting the Penguins to trade the 14th overall pick. Hitting on the 1.5% chance and moving up to 4th overall would obviously change the calculus. The odds of getting quality players in the NHL draft, even in round one, can be disappointingly low. Getting into the top five mitigates a lot of the risk the middle to lower picks have. It is a long shot, but there’s a path to where I would want the Penguins to actually use their first-round selection.

The overwhelming odds have the Penguins staying at 14th overall. I went to the Tankathon site and ran about 40 or 50 simulations and they were at 14th almost every time. There were two exceptions. I got the 4th overall pick once… but I also landed on another low probability outcome where the Penguins actually drop to 15th overall. This situation would take place if the Nashville Predators or Calgary Flames hit on their low odds and moved up ten spaces.

If the Penguins do move up ten spaces I’m here for the conspiracy theories. They’ll be great.

Thanks for reading!

Join the Discussion: » 25 Comments » Post New Comment

» Penguins news and notes

» Getting your Penguins fix

» My thoughts on Penguins thoughts

» It's their fault

» Still alive, for now