Hello All,

The playoff seeding is set and the Washington Capitals are playing the Presidents Trophy winning Florida Panthers in the first round. Today I am breaking down some in-depth regular season head-to-head stats from the three games played between these two clubs. Oddly enough, all three games were played in November. Warning...if data is not your thing, this might not be your favorite read.

Here are the stats from all three games. I added everything together from the three games and averaged it out where appropriate. At the end, I created a scoring system to try to calculate which team was the better team head-to-head this season. Its not perfect but lets have some fun:

Shots on Goal Per Game Played:
WSH – 32.66
FLA – 35.33
*Washington led in SOG in 2 of the 3 games played*

Shots on Goal (5v5) Per Game Played:
WSH – 27.66
FLA – 27.00
*Washington led in SOG (5v5) in 2 of the 3 games played*

1st Period Shots on Goal:
WSH – 12.33
FLA - 12.66
*Florida led in 1st Period SOG in 2 of the 3 games played*

2nd Period Shots on Goal:
WSH – 14.33
FLA - 8.66
*Washington led in 2nd Period SOG in 2 of the 3 games played*

Third Period Shots on Goal:
WSH – 6
FLA - 13.33
*Florida led in 3rd Period SOG in 2 of the 3 games played*

xGF:
Game 1: WSH 2.4, FLA 2.92
Game 2: WSH 2.6, FLA 1.85
Game 3: WSH 2.16, FLA 5.78

xGF Averages:
WSH - 2.39
FLA - 3.51
*Florida led in xGF in 2 of the 3 games played*

Corsi For %:
WSH – 47.39%
FLA – 52.61%
*Washington led in Corsi For % in 2 of the 3 games played*

Corsi For % (5v5):
WSH – 50.39%
FLA – 49.61%
*Washington led in Corsi For % (5v5) in 2 of the 3 games played*


Power Play:
WSH – 1/7
FLA – 3/10
*Advantage Florida*

Hits:
WSH – 30.66
FLA – 25.66
*Advantage Washington*

Blocks:
WSH – 10.66
FLA – 10.66

Scoring Chances For:
WSH – 26.33
FLA – 28.66
*Washington led in "Scoring Chances For" in 2 of the 3 games played*

Scoring Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 23.66
FLA – 20.66
*Washington led in "Scoring Chances For (5v5)" in 2 of the 3 games played*

High Danger Chances For:
WSH– 8.66
FLA – 10.33
*Washington and Florida each Led in "High Danger Chances For" in one game played. The teams tied HDCF in game two on 11/26/21*

High Danger Chances For (5v5):
WSH – 7.66
FLA – 7.66
*Florida led in "High Danger Chances For (5v5)" in 2 of the 3 games played*

Goaltending:

Ilya Samsonov
Saves - 80/91 (.879)
High Danger Saves - 12/18 (.666)
Medium Danger Saves - 31/35 (.885)
Low Danger Saves - 33/34 (.970)
Goals Against - 11
Goals Against Average - 3.66 GAA
Expected Goals Against Average - 2.91
Pulled (Y/N) - Y

Vitek Vanecek
Saves - 13/15 (.867)
High Danger Saves - 3/4 (.750)
Medium Danger Saves -5/5 (1.0)
Low Danger Saves - 4/5 (.800)
Goals Against - 2
Goals Against Average - 2.0 GAA
Expected Goals Against Average - 1.3
Pulled (Y/N) - N

Sergei Bobrovsky
Saves - 55/62 (.887)
High Danger Saves - 9/13 (.692)
Medium Danger Saves - 22/25 (.880)
Low Danger Saves - 20/20 (1.0)
Goals Against - 7
Goals Against Average - 2.33 GAA
Expected Goals Against Average - 1.73
Pulled (Y/N) - N *did leave two of three games due to injury*


Spencer Knight
Saves - 31/36 (.879)
High Danger Saves - 7/10 (.700)
Medium Danger Saves - 7/9 (.777)
Low Danger Saves - 13/14 (.928)
Goals Against - 5
Goals Against Average - 2.5 GAA *did not play a full game either game*
Expected Goals Against Average - 1.24
Pulled (Y/N) - N/A


Who was the "better team" for a majority of these three games played? Lets check out my point system...

Point System - I developed a hypothetical scoring system to evaluate who the better team was in the three game series. If the statistical category graded is what I consider to have a low correlation to the outcome of the game i.e hits, blocks, etc, than that category is worth "1-point". The team that held a the advantage in a at least two of the three games played earned that point. If the statistical category is something I consider to have a high correlation to the outcome of the game i.e expected GF, Corsi For %, high danger chances, etc, I awarded "2-points". Its not perfect, but lets see what happens...

Washington Capitals Win:
-Shots on Goal = 1 point
-Shots on Goal (5v5) = 1 point
-2nd Period Shots on Goal = 1 point
-Corsi For % = 2 points
-Corsi For % 5v5 = 2 points
-Hits = 1 point
-Scoring Chances = 2 points
-Scoring Chances (5v5 = 2 points
-High Danger Chances = 0 (Tied)

Total Points for Capitals = 12

Florida Panthers Win
-1st Period Shots on Goal = 1 point
-Third Period Shots on Goal = 1 point
-Expected Goals For = 2 points
-Power Play = 2 points
-High Danger Chances = 0 (Tied)
-High Danger Chances 5v5 = 2 points
-Goaltending = 2 points

Total Points for Panthers = 10 points


Well there you have it. The proof is in the pudding. Its science! In a three game sample size back in November with completely different rosters, the Capitals were the better team. They are basically Cup bound at this point.

In all seriousness, my biggest takeaway is simply that the Capitals CAN and WILL make this a competitive series. I expect ZERO experts to pick the Capitals and rightfully so. We have struggled down the stretch in all capacities of the game. However, us in Caps land know that this team thrives best when there is zero expectations. A true underdog with nothing to lose. Lets go have some frankin fun. C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS!

Thanks for reading and GO CAPS!

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