Brian Sickles: Will Auston Matthews Finish His Career With More Goals Than Ovechkin?

Brian Sickles: Will Auston Matthews Finish His Career With More Goals Than Ovechkin?
- Brian Sickles

HELL NO

Probably not, and Ovi probably won't catch Gretzky.

Doubtful. Ovechkin is amazingly durable. Scoring would need to keep increasing league wide for Matthews to outscore him IMO.

Probably not, and Ovi probably won't catch Gretzky.
- Zezel

I wanted to believe that for a long time, but it’s far from unrealistic. Ovi has got a serious shot.

Ofc he’ll never even sniff his points totals, but goals is well within reach.

I think he really wants it, too. He’ll hang around a little longer than he should in order to achieve it if that’s what’s required.

And it’s not like he’s really slowing down too much. He still has the touch and players around him who can set him up.

He’s what, 36? Needs 125 more to break the record? He’s signed for 4 more years. Touch over 31 on average.

Well within his reach. I give him better than 50% odds.

As for Matthews? Nah. He’ll shoot passed 500, and 600 wouldn’t surprise me in the least, but he’s not catching Ovie.

Hahahahahahahs

No.

Matthews scoring more than Ovi depends on a 3 main factors (and many more not listed):

1) Continued increase in league scoring. If the general rate of goal scoring goes up then Matthews could get more per season than Ovi. That's not really a predictable factor, but Matthews has already had an advantage in his first 6 seasons and doesn't have more goals.

2) Health. So far Matthews has missed more games. When he's not out of the lineup, he is sometimes been hampered by lingering injuries. It's no a guarantee that he'll continue to have issues - but wrist surgery at age 23 doesn't bode well for future durability.

3) Longevity. Of the thousands of players to play in the NHL, only Ovi has been able to keep scoring at such an impressive rate this late in his career. He's a unicorn. Matthews would need to build up a serious lead on Ovi in seasons 7-12 if he has a shot. I could see him hitting 70 in a season (like Hull, Mogilny, Selanne, Bernie f-ing Nicholls, etc.) but it's highly unlikely he can sustain it for as long. No one else has.

Not likely, but nobody had OV scoring 50 in his late 30's...so who knows. We also don't know when a lockout or random poop happens like what happened to OV three times.

Brian Sickles: Will Auston Matthews Finish His Career With More Goals Than Ovechkin?
- Brian Sickles

Why post something so stupid?

Longevity is so huge, and so difficult to predict. Matthews will beat OV’s single season record next year, if he plays full season. At his peak, he’s undoubtedly the better goal-scorer. But will he stay healthy? Who knows

Longevity is so huge, and so difficult to predict. Matthews will beat OV’s single season record next year, if he plays full season. At his peak, he’s undoubtedly the better goal-scorer. But will he stay healthy? Who knows
- AxlRose91

No Matthews is not undoubtedly a superior goal scorer compared to Ovechkin in his prime. Ovi crushed the competition and has nine Rockets in his career. With several being far ahead of the competition.

- AlfieisKing

Delete your account

Why post something so stupid?
- halo63

I am sorry my blog offended you

Probably not, and Ovi probably won't catch Gretzky.
- Zezel

You dont think Ovi can average 29 goals for his next four seasons?

Longevity is so huge, and so difficult to predict. Matthews will beat OV’s single season record next year, if he plays full season. At his peak, he’s undoubtedly the better goal-scorer. But will he stay healthy? Who knows
- AxlRose91

Fair point! If Matthews scores 65 next year...

Matthews scoring more than Ovi depends on a 3 main factors (and many more not listed):

1) Continued increase in league scoring. If the general rate of goal scoring goes up then Matthews could get more per season than Ovi. That's not really a predictable factor, but Matthews has already had an advantage in his first 6 seasons and doesn't have more goals.

2) Health. So far Matthews has missed more games. When he's not out of the lineup, he is sometimes been hampered by lingering injuries. It's no a guarantee that he'll continue to have issues - but wrist surgery at age 23 doesn't bode well for future durability.

3) Longevity. Of the thousands of players to play in the NHL, only Ovi has been able to keep scoring at such an impressive rate this late in his career. He's a unicorn. Matthews would need to build up a serious lead on Ovi in seasons 7-12 if he has a shot. I could see him hitting 70 in a season (like Hull, Mogilny, Selanne, Bernie f-ing Nicholls, etc.) but it's highly unlikely he can sustain it for as long. No one else has.
- ElbowingPenalty

Thanks for the comment, love the input!

No Matthews is not undoubtedly a superior goal scorer compared to Ovechkin in his prime. Ovi crushed the competition and has nine Rockets in his career. With several being far ahead of the competition.
- jfkst1

I get it, it’s blasphemy to even suggest that a 24 year old might be superior to the all-mighty OV. But I’m afraid it’s true. Matthews scored 60 goals in 70 games this season, a goal-per-game pace that (to use your words) “crushed the competition”

Compare Matthews to prime OV at even-strength, which is often the most effective litmus test for goal-scoring ability. You’ll see what I mean.

Matthews hasn’t won 9 Richard trophies because he hasn’t been in the league long enough. So that stat is irrelevant. But he’s won 2, and I suspect there are many more coming

It’s all about health, and that’s nearly impossible to predict

I get it, it’s blasphemy to even suggest that a 24 year old might be superior to the all-mighty OV. But I’m afraid it’s true. Matthews scored 60 goals in 70 games this season, a goal-per-game pace that (to use your words) “crushed the competition”

Compare Matthews to prime OV at even-strength, which is often the most effective litmus test for goal-scoring ability. You’ll see what I mean.

Matthews hasn’t won 9 Richard trophies because he hasn’t been in the league long enough. So that stat is irrelevant. But he’s won 2, and I suspect there are many more coming

It’s all about health, and that’s nearly impossible to predict
- AxlRose91

The statement of Matthews being a superior goal scorer in his prime is where I take issue. ES scoring is higher now than in Ovi's prime. Also it ignores the fact that Ovechkin is a uniquely gifted PP weapon. If the statement was Matthews is a superior ES scorer to Ovechkin in his prime I would probably agree. Though Matthews has had two great seasons and Ovechkin was far more accomplished in his age 20 and 21 seasons as well. I even believe Matthews is a better overall player, but for goal scoring prowess alone I seriously question he is Ovechkin's equal.

I get it, it’s blasphemy to even suggest that a 24 year old might be superior to the all-mighty OV. But I’m afraid it’s true. Matthews scored 60 goals in 70 games this season, a goal-per-game pace that (to use your words) “crushed the competition”

Compare Matthews to prime OV at even-strength, which is often the most effective litmus test for goal-scoring ability. You’ll see what I mean.

Matthews hasn’t won 9 Richard trophies because he hasn’t been in the league long enough. So that stat is irrelevant. But he’s won 2, and I suspect there are many more coming

It’s all about health, and that’s nearly impossible to predict
- AxlRose91

You have to take league averages into consideration. If 07/08, when Ovechkin scored 65 goals, the total goals scored was 6691. This past season, there were 7664, an increase of 14.5%. However, there were 2 fewer teams in 07/08, so if we adjust for 2 extra teams, we're at 7137 goals in 07/08, which lowers the factor to 7.4%. Scaling Ovechkin's season by 1.074 puts him at the 69/70 mark.

Of course I'm doing this based on quick averages, I'm sure there's a much more advanced modeling method out there, as not every player in 07/08 would have an increase of exactly 7.4% if they played today, not to mention there's no guarantee that overlal scoring would have increased by exactly 7.4%.

Will he, probably not but if anyone could it would be him.

Based off his career so far he is scoring at a .63 goals per game. If you put him at that pace over 13 more years at 82 games (He'd be 37) he would score 670 goals over that time + 256 he has already which would be 926 goals total.

Logically he should but Matthews has only had two seasons without missing any games and has missed between 9-20 games per season(I dont know if COVID played a factor in any missed games). As he gets older that number is likely going to increase. On he has played a total of 407 games out of 454 which puts him at 74 games per season average. Replace the 13 seasons at 82 games with 74 games and his total + current goals drops to 861 goals which is just 33 goals shy of Gretzky.

So it really will likely come down to whether or not Matthews will still be scoring at a 50 goal per season rate at Ovechkin's age and how his health holds up.

Its 100% doable.

This is a ridiculous analysis. What makes Ovi one of a kind is that he has been ELITE for so long. Lots of flashes in the pan: lots of elite players for spurts. Fewer that can Austin it for a decade. And none that have sustained it for as long as he has.

He is also remarkably durable.

Not to mention he did it when a big chuck of his career was when league scoring was down.

Not to mention he has had to deal with multiple lockouts and a pandemic.

Will someone someday pass Ovis 900 plus goals? Yes. Could it be Matthews? Sure. Is it likely to be Matthews…not even close. The probability is much much higher that Ovis record stands longer than Gretzkys than it is that Matthews passes him.

I wanted to believe that for a long time, but it’s far from unrealistic. Ovi has got a serious shot.

Ofc he’ll never even sniff his points totals, but goals is well within reach.

I think he really wants it, too. He’ll hang around a little longer than he should in order to achieve it if that’s what’s required.

And it’s not like he’s really slowing down too much. He still has the touch and players around him who can set him up.

He’s what, 36? Needs 125 more to break the record? He’s signed for 4 more years. Touch over 31 on average.

Well within his reach. I give him better than 50% odds.
- Hesh_

Agree he has a shot. I just think he's going up against Wayne Gretzky and Father Time. That's a daunting task.