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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: What Are The Hawks Getting in Bedard
Author Message
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 13 @ 10:16 AM ET
Mr. Wiz hate to rain on your parade here but the picks after the first round rarely bring anything.

Look at the stats

In the last 10 drafts, over 300 picks, only 20 guys have played 300 NHL games. Less than 7% kind sir.

In the past 5 drafts, over 150 picks, only 8 players have played 100 games.

Stockpiling picks sells the Hockey News Draft Edition and hope but doesn't move the needle.

Davidson needs to draft at the very top of the draft, find free agents from Europe, and trade for talented guys stuck behind loaded rosters or out of favor.

Sabres are better than the Hawks at 19 of 20 positions right now and could not make the playoffs.

Not going to be easy.

- stevefrmglencoe


Don't 2nd round picks need more time to develop? 2 seasons in and you barely have anyone who's played a 100 games. So 3 years to develop then another year and a half to play over 100 games.

To be fair i wouldn't even count the last 4 years for 2nd round picks, the 2019 draft doesn't even have any player playing over 300 games.

If you give those players time to develop you end up from 2014 to 2019, about 50 players who've played over 100 games.

RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

May 13 @ 10:33 AM ET
Back to the Connor Garland discussion. Per Frank Seravalli....

Seravalli says that he’s been told that the Canucks have been calling around over the past few weeks to gauge the cost to move some of their contracts.

“The main focal point is that the Canucks are active on trying to move Conor Garland’s salary. You heard Brock Boeser say at the end of the season that he doesn’t really want to be traded. It’s still certainly possible that they find a new home for Boeser. And they always have a break glass in case of emergency play with J.T. Miller before his no-trade clause kicks in on July 1. Garland is someone they’ve really keyed in on with the term remaining on his deal he might provide some flexibility. So Garland is one name that they’ve been focusing on.”

The price is steep as they are hoping someone will take a contract that has more than one year and at almost $5 million a season (referring to Garland).

- boilermaker100


Well the Canucks select at #11 and they are over the cap limit now. Dumping
players isn't impossible but can be quite expensive. Are they willing to trade the #11 pick as part of the deal to offload one of the big salaries they don't want? KD might listen.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

May 13 @ 10:46 AM ET
Well the Canucks select at #11 and they are over the cap limit now. Dumping
players isn't impossible but can be quite expensive. Are they willing to trade the #11 pick as part of the deal to offload one of the big salaries they don't want? KD might listen.

- RickJ


Garland & 11th for 19th? or Garland & 2024 1st for FC or maybe Mitchell or a 2024 3rd rounder.

Garland's remaining contract of 3 years probably fits KD's timeline.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

May 13 @ 10:55 AM ET
Garland & 11th for 19th? or Garland & 2024 1st for FC or maybe Mitchell or a 2024 3rd rounder.

Garland's remaining contract of 3 years probably fits KD's timeline.

- boilermaker100

To take on a pretty big contract I’d hope for more than a swap of firsts. I’d like to see Chicago keep that 19th and offer a later pick.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 13 @ 11:15 AM ET
To take on a pretty big contract I’d hope for more than a swap of firsts. I’d like to see Chicago keep that 19th and offer a later pick.
- paulr


I would agree give back a 2nd and/or 3rd. Package maybe 11th and 19th and move back up into the top 3?
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

May 13 @ 11:20 AM ET
To take on a pretty big contract I’d hope for more than a swap of firsts. I’d like to see Chicago keep that 19th and offer a later pick.
- paulr


You'll get nothing and like it!
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

May 13 @ 11:24 AM ET
Think we can end any hope that Kane and Toews being resigned. Can’t find the print but WBBM just had a blurb where it was stated KD plans on looking toward the future and had no intention on signing Kane or Toews. Any one have print to match this?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 13 @ 11:26 AM ET
Just popping in to snicker about the Leaves and mention a couple things I found interesting.

A. Matthews is going into the last year of his contract. Currently his full NMC doesn't kick in until the new NHL season starts( July 1?). Technically he is tradable to the Leaves for the next roughly 3 months. His agent set it up perfectly to pretty much screw over Toronto and Matthews gets to go where he wants for the price he wants.

While I'm pleased the Hawks have 6 picks in the top 55 this draft year, I did notice the Wings have 5 picks in the top 44 including 3 consecutive picks in round 2. KD and the Hawks may not be the only team active on draft day.

- Rota's Rooter


The Wings have those 3 picks in front of us in the 2nd round, i wouldn't be surprised if that's where the Blackhawks draft the best goalie prospect still available, i think the Wings drafted a goalie last year
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

May 13 @ 11:32 AM ET
To take on a pretty big contract I’d hope for more than a swap of firsts. I’d like to see Chicago keep that 19th and offer a later pick.
- paulr

Vancouver needs a lifeline or new blood flowing eventually to their NHL team. No where else to get that but through the draft. They still select a good player at #19. L

Meanwhile KD will find a bonafide forward with top line ceiling at #11. Two forwards in top eleven -
LATE ADD: St Louis has extra a picks - a few teams have multiple picks in first and or second round. Other teams without picks in round one might be facing a seller’s market. Our KD might have some teams with a few picks willing to outbid or outmaneuver him and I do not know if it is necessarily a buyer or seller market as far as Chicago’s moving draft choices. In short it could be a wild and very active first two rounds both prior to and during the first two rounds
stevefrmglencoe
Joined: 05.21.2013

May 13 @ 11:33 AM ET
Don't 2nd round picks need more time to develop? 2 seasons in and you barely have anyone who's played a 100 games. So 3 years to develop then another year and a half to play over 100 games.

To be fair i wouldn't even count the last 4 years for 2nd round picks, the 2019 draft doesn't even have any player playing over 300 games.

If you give those players time to develop you end up from 2014 to 2019, about 50 players who've played over 100 games.

- BetweenTheDots


Good point for sure.

100 games is a low bar. I think 300 games defines a significant NHL player and as I recall the number was 7% of 2nd rounders hit it even looking back further. Thanks for pointing this out.

boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

May 13 @ 11:36 AM ET
Think we can end any hope that Kane and Toews being resigned. Can’t find the print but WBBM just had a blurb where it was stated KD plans on looking toward the future and had no intention on signing Kane or Toews. Any one have print to match this?
- Popsghostly


KD more or less implied it in an interview on the Score yesterday. Link on page 22.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

May 13 @ 11:40 AM ET
You'll get nothing and like it!
- mohel

Don’t you have a bar mitzvah to attend?
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

May 13 @ 11:42 AM ET
KD more or less implied it in an interview on the Score yesterday. Link on page 22.
- boilermaker100


Thanks Boiler. Must have missed it while watching Leafs/Cats last night. Intrigued about the Leafs next steps. 1 of the Big 4 not Tavares has to be moved. Even with a coaching change, of the 3 remaining, think either Nylander or Matthews might be moved depending their intentions. Depending on the partner maybe for solid D prospects and draft capital?
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

May 13 @ 11:43 AM ET
Yep, and having Matthews score AT ALL would have been helpful too. No goals in the five-game series.
- Chief4Feathers


16 mil $ man
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

May 13 @ 11:47 AM ET
I would agree give back a 2nd and/or 3rd. Package maybe 11th and 19th and move back up into the top 3?
- SteveRain

How the hell did the Canucks, early in its rebuild with very little talent get into salary cap hell? I hope KD is watching to make sure he doesn’t make the same mistakes.
stevefrmglencoe
Joined: 05.21.2013

May 13 @ 11:56 AM ET
Since you're unable to answer the previous question, how about we narrow it down to the Hawks....

At least two (often three) of the top six were drafted after the first round. So was Keith. And Crawford. And Hammer. And Bolland, Kreuger and Shaw. And Bickell.

You are full of crap.

- mohel


Maybe you and Pulford were right all along. It's the bottom of the roster that wins Cups not the high end talent.

Except for the fact that Kane, Toews, Hossa and Seabrook all were drafted 1st round. Buffs minutes went to Bickell then covered by Richards and there are dozens of supporting guys on the Cup. They played roles because there is a salary cap and these are not all-star teams. Our third line can outplay their third line but when Hammer plays in AZ he's just another guy. Bolland drank himself out of the League. Krueger is playing in Europe. Shaw was just a guy in Montreal. Bickell very unfortunate situation with the MS.

Koptiar, Doughty, Carter, Richards, Brown all high picks.

Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Sergachev, Hedman.

The Top 50 scorers. The Norris Winners, The Needle Movers. With a few notable exceptions, that are amazing accomplishment, come from the Top of the Draft. First Round Picks play 300 games, score 100 goals, positive +/- and Win.

You may not like it but it isn't crap. It is why Davidson gutted the orgainzation. He knows.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 13 @ 11:56 AM ET
As of the yesterday, Chicago picks #1, #19, #35, #44, #51, #55, #67, #88, #99.

Oh, I am not stressing on Kyle Davidson’s announcement he has draft capital, and probably will not use all the selections.

We are getting THE best player available in awhile to start things, but he made the point himself, in a strong top half of the first why would a team trade out?

The only reason I could see is if the team is lacking chances in the later rounds, and I WILL respect Glencoe Steve’s idea that many later picks don’t pan out, but the depth in this crapshoot is incredibly different than the statistical curves of past ones.
So Kyle is in one breath saying, he is gonna let newbies find their way w/o adding impact vets, but then isn’t going to bring NINE newbies into the system.
Yeah I know where we are depth wise, but I also know all nine prospects will be ready at different future years and dates, so it is not like he is forced to drop the eight after #1 in in 2024 and let them play.

My first thoughts after the Lottery win was that the Hawks might want offer Columbus one for def. Stanislav Svozil, Connor’s best bud, to ease the transition in training camp.
He played a few pro games and having him close (Rockford) just seems a nice comforting thought unless the Bedard family are moving in the Bismarck hotel permanently.

As drafting, I am completely puzzled as to why you dump picks, just b/c you have them.

When Davidson dealt for Rangers, Ottawa, Dallas just a few months ago, why didn’t he ask for “other years” if he felt he was getting overloaded?

Did he truly feel that they were so valuable he could trade them for one better in the upcoming drafts?

I guess this plays out, but to me, at present, this is the essential question to be asked of Kyle when he made those deals.

Is he sending the Jones brothers (with salary retention of the older brother’s cap hit) somewhere with some of these later picks to move up?

I guess my naive self sees where a dropping Michkov might be a target at Montreal’s #5, or Philly’s #7, all before the Capitals take him at #8....Vancouver’s #11, Arizona’s, #12….but Kyle’s STILL got some manlike for the two players projected to go at #2 & #3, and I am not sure his draft capital gets him up there whether he trades and retains a half dozen Hawks to those teams.

Again, why would anyone trade out of the top dozen? (Last year KD was able to tarde assets for #7 & #13, a different draft class , for sure, but these teams traded out, nonetheless.

They would have to be making the NOW move to justify it the return would have to be both now and later improvements to their roster, and the reasoning, “We have enough youth and now need to bolster our _______ position.”

Conversely, isn’t that what KYLE saying about having all those”too many picks?”

I an intrigued.
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

May 13 @ 12:00 PM ET
How the hell did the Canucks, early in its rebuild with very little talent get into salary cap hell? I hope KD is watching to make sure he doesn’t make the same mistakes.
- paulr


Exactly. Rushed the rebuild after Hughes & Petersson broke through. Did well with JT Miller and Horvat, but then got Myers, OEL and Garland to double down and compliment the youth. Contracts came up and then doom!!!

Speaking of OEL… What ever happened to Tanner? Loved how he made OEL the second coming of Orr.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

May 13 @ 12:21 PM ET
As of the yesterday, Chicago picks #1, #19, #35, #44, #51, #55, #67, #88, #99.

Oh, I am not stressing on Kyle Davidson’s announcement he has draft capital, and probably will not use all the selections.

As drafting, I am completely puzzled as to why you dump picks, just b/c you have them.

- wiz1901


Maybe KD thinks he get can get more 2023 picks, cap dumps come to mind, at the draft. Then with 10 or 11 picks in the first hundred, he could group some of them together to move up "x" number of slots in the earlier rounds and still have 7 or 8 picks. I still think he wants to get another 1st rounder somehow.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 13 @ 12:22 PM ET
It starts at the 11:30 mark

https://youtu.be/-9tc8UsfNcM

Wiz was obviously multi-tasking,going over the latest mock draft for 2023?

- captainserious


You know an ad came up in the middle and when it returned to the KD interview I guess it by passed that part about only one guy can have the puck at a time.

If Kyle Davidon thinks the centre position forever is locked and loaded with Nazar, Reichel and Bedard, I think he's overly optimistic.

I liked the narrative about how the organization has changed, very well constructed response, the guy can speak.
What bother me (and I know maybe KD cannot say who he is selecting, but I start to worry when I hear him come back around to the two centres after Bedard.

Maybe there IS a Lindros rejection coming that has not been made public through the Bedard family and the Blackhawks are aware off...I know, I worry, get anxious but either I just don't like the eloquence of Kyle's public speaking, but why after winning Connor Bedard, after I have perseverated on for three entire years for this to luckily happen, do I have to worry he is not coming?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 13 @ 12:23 PM ET
Good point for sure.

100 games is a low bar. I think 300 games defines a significant NHL player and as I recall the number was 7% of 2nd rounders hit it even looking back further. Thanks for pointing this out.

- stevefrmglencoe


Considering no one from 2019 has played 300 games? My point is if you are going to gauge 300 games played by 2nd rounders a fair measure would be to go back before 3 years to develop then at least another 4 years to actually be able to play 300 games so pre 2016 season.

10 players from 2010
12 from 2011
7 from 2012
7 from 2013
5 from 2014
7 from 2015 with a few close to 300 like Cernak, Sprong and Siegenthaler

Aho and Hintz drafted in that 2nd round as well.

Looks like 2014 was not such a good draft class, even then that number is 15%

According to Wiz this is the best draft class he's ever seen, if that's true than you realistically have a 30% chance of drafting a quality NHL player and the Blackhawks have 4 chances at it right now.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 13 @ 12:26 PM ET
Maybe KD thinks he get can get more additional 2023 picks, cap dumps come to mind, at the draft. Then with 10 or 11 picks in the first hundred, he could group a some of them together to move up "x" number of slots in the earlier rounds and still have 7 or 8 picks. I still think he wants to get another 1st rounder somehow.
- boilermaker100


Oh, I know I want one or two more first rounders, but I just don't see it unless they find a team as stupid as the Blackhawks WERE when we traded out of the 1st round so Dallas could take their current goalie and we could take Henri Jokiharju.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

May 13 @ 12:28 PM ET
Oh, I know I want one or two more first rounders, but I just don't see it unless they find a team as stupid as the Blackhawks WERE when we traded out of the 1st round so Dallas could take their current goalie and we could take Henri Jokiharju.
- wiz1901


I hope we draft as well as Dallas or Carolina.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 13 @ 12:31 PM ET
I would love to think the hawks could retain that second #19 overall AND get additional first rounders before and after it.

But that's when Glencoe Steve's logic comes in play big time.

Jumping out above #19, why oh why would a team drop out unless they are sure the seconds the acquire (and Hawk players) are guys they really like, or there is a bevy of prospects they like and feel the long term additions (plus the Hawk throw in) are worthy of the move.

wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 13 @ 12:35 PM ET
Let's get crazy and assume they are planning a Caleb departure, and they find a taker of SETH JONES, Bowmans last big get.

I see plenty of teams interested especially with the hawks eating the Seth Cap hit of $9.5 million until 2029.
Kyle said he isn't going UFA fishing until we pay our present youngsters...Seth has a NO MOVEMENT CLAUSE.
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