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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Worlds, Briere. Hockey Ops, TIFH
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SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

May 26 @ 1:22 PM ET
Briere: We will pick the BPA at #7.

He doesn't think Michkov will be there at #7 but he is not deterred by the political situation.

My take is that if Michkov is there he will pick him as the BPA.

- MBFlyerfan

Link and good!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 26 @ 1:25 PM ET
Anderson either doesn't have his dept developing useful enough information or he's not good enough at selling the value of their data to the hockey ops folks.

Either way, it's been a failure for almost a decade now. Proof is in the pudding.

- Tomahawk


Completely agree. There is zero evidence that the Flyers analytic department is effective.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 26 @ 1:33 PM ET
Link and good!
- SuperSchennBros


https://podcasts.apple.co...496181176?i=1000614546872

Also:

- Danny thinks Hilferty's awesome,
- Danny thinks Jonesy is awesome,
- Danny think analytics are a "big part" of the puzzle, will try to get the assistant coaches to incorporate data more (sounds like Torts is a no-go),
- Danny thinks Cutter looks great at the WC but doesn't want to rush him.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

May 26 @ 1:40 PM ET
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/flyers-daily-with-jason-myrtetus/id1496181176?i=1000614546872

Also:

- Danny thinks Hilferty's awesome,
- Danny thinks Jonesy is awesome,
- Danny think analytics are a "big part" of the puzzle, will try to get the assistant coaches to incorporate data more (sounds like Torts is a no-go),
- Danny thinks Cutter looks great at the WC but doesn't want to rush him.

- Tomahawk

This is what cracks me up. Then clearly the coach doesn't see the GM's vision or what not.

How they allowed a guy in less than years time to run this organization is so funny. He would still be on TV otherwise. Not 1 other team would have hired him.

I bet he thinks Hilfertys awesome!!! gave him a job without doing any due diligence
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 26 @ 1:42 PM ET
Briere: We will pick the BPA at #7.

He doesn't think Michkov will be there at #7 but he is not deterred by the political situation.

My take is that if Michkov is there he will pick him as the BPA.

- MBFlyerfan


To me Michkov is an easy assessment, just like Nolan Patrick. I can have my opinion on what they should do, but ultimately the responsibility lies 100% on the Flyers organization. They have to do their homework they are paid to do and if they pick Michkov and he doesn't come over than they wasted a pick and I see that as worse than not picking him.

Maybe the team picks him, if he is available, and uses him as a trade chip. Other clubs may see it as a major risk and give little to no value for him down the road or they could end up getting a huge package. He could have all the skill in the world, but end of the day if he doesn't play for the team then they might as well draft you or myself.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 26 @ 1:48 PM ET
To me Michkov is an easy assessment, just like Nolan Patrick. I can have my opinion on what they should do, but ultimately the responsibility lies 100% on the Flyers organization. They have to do their homework they are paid to do and if they pick Michkov and he doesn't come over than they wasted a pick and I see that as worse than not picking him.

Maybe the team picks him, if he is available, and uses him as a trade chip. Other clubs may see it as a major risk and give little to no value for him down the road or they could end up getting a huge package. He could have all the skill in the world, but end of the day if he doesn't play for the team then they might as well draft you or myself.

- Glak18



I have 0% doubt that Michkov comes to the NHL when his KHL contract is up. If not sooner.


Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 26 @ 1:51 PM ET
Ek is already smoking rocks this early.

Boeser for provy?
🤣

- Bob Habib


Just what we need, another RW to add to the collection.

Atkinson
Konency
Tippett
Allison
Foerster
Brink

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 26 @ 1:54 PM ET
It's up to the analytic department to develop and mine data that is convincing enough that a decision maker would take advantage of it.
- MJL


Eh, you can lead a Torts to water, but you can't make him drink.

We're talking about a coach that is so fossilized he refused to change up the powerplay or the OT formation despite being worst in the league at both over almost an entire season.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 26 @ 1:56 PM ET
I have 0% doubt that Michkov comes to the NHL when his KHL contract is up. If not sooner.
- MBFlyerfan


Ok that's a lot of confidence for a person who sits on the outside. Plus it's really easy for you to say that because if he doesn't come over you just get to shrug and tell everyone "I didn't say that", but the Flyers don't get that luxury.

If they pick him and there's drama with him coming over then the Flyers suck, if they don't pick him and he comes over then the Flyers suck. So the only options they have is hope he gets picked before them or have the same confidence as you. Because 2 years from now when there is article after article questioning whether he comes over then it's going to end badly.
funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

May 26 @ 2:01 PM ET
It's up to the analytic department to develop and mine data that is convincing enough that a decision maker would take advantage of it.
- MJL

Or the end users aren’t the right people for the job.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

May 26 @ 2:02 PM ET
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/flyers-daily-with-jason-myrtetus/id1496181176?i=1000614546872

Also:

- Danny thinks Hilferty's awesome,
- Danny thinks Jonesy is awesome,
- Danny think analytics are a "big part" of the puzzle, will try to get the assistant coaches to incorporate data more (sounds like Torts is a no-go),
- Danny thinks Cutter looks great at the WC but doesn't want to rush him.

- Tomahawk


Best Player Available is the same as "build the right way". The definition of which rests solely in Danny's head. Danny will pick whoever he wants based on whatever criteria he decides and that player will be announced as the BPA.

That term get's overused in all sports.


funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

May 26 @ 2:03 PM ET
Eh, you can lead a Torts to water, but you can't make him drink.

We're talking about a coach that is so fossilized he refused to change up the powerplay or the OT formation despite being worst in the league at both over almost an entire season.

- Feanor

You can have all the compelling evidence and data in the world but if the decision makers are flawed and choose not to leverage it, it is not at the fault of producers of the data.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

May 26 @ 2:04 PM ET
Eh, you can lead a Torts to water, but you can't make him drink.

We're talking about a coach that is so fossilized he refused to change up the powerplay or the OT formation despite being worst in the league at both over almost an entire season.

- Feanor


This is the guy they've decided they can't live without and half the fanbase loves.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 26 @ 2:05 PM ET
Best Player Available is the same as "build the right way". The definition of which rests solely in Danny's head. Danny will pick whoever he wants based on whatever criteria he decides and that player will be announced as the BPA.

That term get's overused in all sports.

- Flyers_01


Agreed 100%.

The only thing that matters is if the teams hits or misses.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 26 @ 2:06 PM ET
Ok that's a lot of confidence for a person who sits on the outside. Plus it's really easy for you to say that because if he doesn't come over you just get to shrug and tell everyone "I didn't say that", but the Flyers don't get that luxury.

If they pick him and there's drama with him coming over then the Flyers suck, if they don't pick him and he comes over then the Flyers suck. So the only options they have is hope he gets picked before them or have the same confidence as you. Because 2 years from now when there is article after article questioning whether he comes over then it's going to end badly.

- Glak18



Not at all. Why would I care enough to lie about something that is easily proven otherwise?

I just think money talks, even in Russia. And pointing to what happened to Fedotov (not you specifically) as some sort of proof is disingenuous at best. He was literally playing for a Russian Army sponsored team and tried to get out of his obligation.


mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

May 26 @ 2:07 PM ET
Or the end users aren’t the right people for the job.
- funmaster18


I have to agree. Are other team's analytics group just better salespeople or something? Not sure how the data other teams produce is significantly more accurate than what the Flyers team provides.

I just feel like other teams have end users that are willing to use the data to inform decisions.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 26 @ 2:10 PM ET
How do we know there is nothing wrong with the current analytics department? What is the evidence of that. It is their responsibility to develop and provide data that would convince end users that changes need to be made. If the Flyers are basing what data they generate on the end users requests. They're doing it wrong.
- MJL

A. The analytics dept is incompetent
B. The analytics dept is ignored
C. A combo of A & B

When you jettison a useful player ( Ghost) to overpay for an inferior player (Risto), when you blow 3 draft picks on Deangelo, when you sign a possession black hole (Nic D) to a 4 year deal with trade protection then one of the above has to be true.

Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

May 26 @ 2:10 PM ET
I have 0% doubt that Michkov comes to the NHL when his KHL contract is up. If not sooner.
- MBFlyerfan


How can you have "zero doubt"? Do you have zero doubt that Michkov's father went for a walk at night and accidentally drowned in a pond? Do you have zero doubt he won't miraculously "decide to sign a contract extension" in the K before the contract expires? The KHL itself was a Putin-driven initiative. It's intertwined with Russian politics. Every player transfer is case by case, especially with the MOU having been canceled and Russia banned by the IIHF.

I'm not saying Michkov won't be over in three years. I am saying it's not a guarantee and that securing the transfer will take a lot of behind the scenes work that you don't have with a player drafted from literally any other hockey country (I'm excluding Belarus because it's effectively a satellite country to Russia).
funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

May 26 @ 2:11 PM ET
I have to agree. Are other team's analytics group just better salespeople or something? Not sure how the data other teams produce is significantly more accurate than what the Flyers team provides.

I just feel like other teams have end users that are willing to use the data to inform decisions.

- mickel25

Many fans have been complaining about the archaic nature of the flyers leadership. It’s not unreasonable to think they have chosen not to leverage what’s available to them. I can’t say for sure that’s the main issue but it certainly seems very possible. Odd to me that everyone is jumping to the conclusion that the analytics department is the problem and not considering that there are key people in the organization failing to leverage it.
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

May 26 @ 2:11 PM ET
Best Player Available is the same as "build the right way". The definition of which rests solely in Danny's head. Danny will pick whoever he wants based on whatever criteria he decides and that player will be announced as the BPA.

That term get's overused in all sports.

- Flyers_01


BPA is in the eye of the beholder. The question is what defines best player available to Briere?
This draft has potential 1990 similarities. If Michkov is available and the dont pick him because of political issues he will be a HOFer ala Jagr.


funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

May 26 @ 2:14 PM ET
A. The analytics dept is incompetent
B. The analytics dept is ignored
C. A combo of A & B

When you jettison a useful player ( Ghost) to overpay for an inferior player (Risto), when you blow 3 draft picks on Deangelo, when you sign a possession black hole (Nic D) to a 4 year deal with trade protection then one of the above has to be true.

- BiggE


Given the frequency of head scratching decisions made over the last several years, I lean towards B. Of course I have no clue but there has been so much ineptitude by those running the show from Dave Scott down that it seems highly likely to me.

I work in IT/data field and there are several examples in my own work where staff ignore, don’t value or don’t trust the overwhelmingly obvious indicators that data science and analysis can provide.
Minnyhock
Minnesota Wild
Joined: 06.26.2021

May 26 @ 2:14 PM ET
They already did that and spent a ton of money in doing so. One of the largest analytics departments in the league. Been that way for a couple of years now.
- Joe Nardone


Yeah, the Flyers and Leafs are routinely acknowledged as having the largest analytics departments in the league. The Leafs and Canes embraced analytics earlier than the rest of the league. How much does size matter? Which team has the best analytics people? Quality over quantity.

MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 26 @ 2:14 PM ET
How can you have "zero doubt"? Do you have zero doubt that Michkov's father went for a walk at night and accidentally drowned in a pond? Do you have zero doubt he won't miraculously "decide to sign a contract extension" in the K before the contract expires? The KHL itself was a Putin-driven initiative. It's intertwined with Russian politics. Every player transfer is case by case, especially with the MOU having been canceled and Russia banned by the IIHF.

I'm not saying Michkov won't be over in three years. I am saying it's not a guarantee and that securing the transfer will take a lot of behind the scenes work that you don't have with a player drafted from literally any other hockey country (I'm excluding Belarus because it's effectively a satellite country to Russia).

- bmeltzer



Fair enough. I just think in the end money is what talks.

Question. Would you take Michkov if he falls to 7?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

May 26 @ 2:16 PM ET
Torts wants to win on his terms. He wants to be the main reason.

This is why he dismisses analytics to a point. If they don’t jive with his “gut” and “eye test” then he deems them irrelevant. Would make him look bad if they were correct and he wasn’t.

Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 26 @ 2:22 PM ET
Not at all. Why would I care enough to lie about something that is easily proven otherwise?

I just think money talks, even in Russia. And pointing to what happened to Fedotov (not you specifically) as some sort of proof is disingenuous at best. He was literally playing for a Russian Army sponsored team and tried to get out of his obligation.

- MBFlyerfan


I think the biggest difference between our perspectives is you feel every team is on the same playing field. If he gets drafted by one team you probably think it would be the same for the Flyers, I don't. There's a reason why certain teams draft/sign more Russians than others. It is highly political. If Vancouver drafts Michkov I have little doubt he doesn't come over.

Now if we were talking about Leo Carlsson and he had a signed 3 year contract obligation I wouldn't hesitate to still draft him. Unfortunately the political side and relations plays a bigger part with Russian players.
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