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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: What To Do At Number Two
Author Message
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

May 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
Maybe I'm a bit naive but, and it is a big but, if Hall plays 60 games this season. Perry doesn't get launched,and the Hawks aren't killed by injuries,I'd figure they'd have an extra 10-15 points in the standings this year.

I figure a 20pt improvement next year is the least we should expect,unless they are decimated by injuries again

- captainserious


I was curious about how much a team "typically" improves from a bottom 3 position and I looked at all the bottom 3 teams of the last 30 seasons (excluding cancelled seasons and adjusted for 82 games). The average improvement was about 13 points and the mean 12 points, but it was a pretty wide spread and not the most huge sample size. Just if anyone is curious.

14.4% of teams lost points (just like we did this season)
35.6% of teams gained points but less than 12.
24.4% of teams gained 12 to 20 points
14.4% of teams gained 21 to 30 points
11.1% of teams gained more than 30 points

This isn't a prediction and doesn't take into account how many years a team was near the bottom, but just a representation of how often teams have climbed and how fast from the bottom 3 on the list.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 12:47 PM ET
Can't be too mad at the result of the lottery, especially considering what happened last year. My one complaint is it seems like the Hawks shouldn't lose access to the lottery for the next five years since they didn't actually move up.
- Hawkeynation



...and that was because another rapid poster here was TOTALLY ignorant of the rules although his know it all tush was sure he did.(me).

I now am happy and will not crititize whomever they select.

and that includes reaches on the forward position or the best dfenseman that fits the Blackhawks long term.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

May 8 @ 12:48 PM ET
Yeah Bread. This is why I wanted that #1 card to be the Hawks so badly. I imagine a Hall, Bedard in year two, Nazar and whomever we sign will pot more goals this year. Maybe even Raddyish too if he's still here. Having a less decimated roster will help too.

We scored 0 or 1 goals in over 30 games last year. There's much room for improvement there.

- Popsghostly


The offensive output when Bedard was hurt (plus all the other injuries) was pretty awful for sure. We had to win games 1-0 to have a chance to win at all.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 12:50 PM ET
I have no idea why San Jose wouldn’t select him. I’m saying it strictly as a precaution in the unlikely event they pass on him. If there’s a trade in play for the Blackhawk’s pick at number 2, I’m just saying make it on the floor after San Jose has picked.
- paulr

and here I was already wastiung the Tampa asset in a trade up from #2 & 20, giving San Jose another bullet but not the best player, which is unrealsitic.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

May 8 @ 12:51 PM ET
Levshunov is apparently up to 215. He's a big boy.

So I took a look at some of the Demidov clips. Ummm wow. The break away where he saucers the puck to himself was wild.

That's the get the puck to Bedard and make teams play player. One of the videos was very specific that he's the perfect player for young Connor.

BUT I get the argument Bill is making. I don't know enough about skating to know how correctable that stance is. The way his knees fold in looks like an ACL pop waiting to happen and a meniscus replacement by 30.

Also looks like he's trying to break his KHL contract and come over this summer which is interesting.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

May 8 @ 12:52 PM ET
Russia is not giving out passports and it could only get worse from here. They need a power forward who can score.
- bjphawkfan

Alex Nylander had a good year with Columbus.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

May 8 @ 12:55 PM ET
Levshunov is apparently up to 215. He's a big boy.

So I took a look at some of the Demidov clips. Ummm wow. The break away where he saucers the puck to himself was wild.

That's the get the puck to Bedard and make teams play player. One of the videos was very specific that he's the perfect player for young Connor.

BUT I get the argument Bill is making. I don't know enough about skating to know how correctable that stance is. The way his knees fold in looks like an ACL pop waiting to happen and a meniscus replacement by 30.

Also looks like he's trying to break his KHL contract and come over this summer which is interesting.

- fattybeef

The way his hip joints are formed it may be natural he can only skate that way.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

May 8 @ 12:56 PM ET
Alex Nylander had a good year with Columbus.
- rpeters01


On paper anyway. Didn't register a point in half the games so it was very much in bunches.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 12:57 PM ET
As I was attempting to say yesterday is Kyle and his staff have an idea of what they want in NHL player additions if they can sign them.
and I was going to say a RD defender via mid UFA type like Carolina's Hatfield but like all thise big ticket guys, it is difficult to imagine getting the taste of playoff from their mouth to sign to be a 2024-25 Blakhawk over a playoff omission in their year.

Most of the kids will turn pro and play inside the farm, but I don't think they approach that #2 any different thanthey did the #19 slection of Moore last year:
They locked on his upside speed versatility and despite the concensus being he needed work to read the details better, he would play.

That is why I see no issue with a swing for the fences with Cayden Lindstrom or ANY OTHER guy they truly love at slot 2.
I was really wishing that last night one of the gutless teleprompter readers would have SAID the opinion about Eiserman and the drop....but since last year's broadcast had the same Kevin Weekes look like clowns with that Blue jacket non announcement that took away any drama.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 1:08 PM ET
The way Demidov's hip joints are formed it may be natural he can only skate that way.
- rpeters01


It is a matter of not using his edges though his skating stance looks slumped.

If Kyle & company think he is the guy, take their word over mine.

The NHL ice will not allow an attacking player to get in that stance to stay standing. You see how strong many players in the league are? They can use their hands and knock the opposition down with hand checks.
Although the game in Russia is played exactly like we now play it in North America, there is less ROOM to get out of that wide body stance and you go more laterally, but it seems like HE WON'T.
Oh he is powerful and good laterally to a point and it is less problem on the perimeter, but don't you want you NHL scorers to be able to adjust on plays and reposition in front of the net?
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 1:10 PM ET
On paper anyway. Didn't register a point in half the games so it was very much in bunches.
- fattybeef


Has any one seen if he has used his legs and cross overs?

(Demidov/former Hawk Nylander hav skating issues?)


wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 8 @ 1:12 PM ET
The way his hip joints are formed it may be natural he can only skate that way.
- rpeters01


I can agree...

Bob Pulford told me at the Terry Ruskowski press signing that in 1979 draft he thought Gartner's bent over skating would be the reason the Blackhawks would not take him.

I think I recollect him having more than a few 40 & 50 goal seasons with Washington skating bent over.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

May 8 @ 1:23 PM ET
This one is easy. Ivan Demidov all the way.
- MjulQvist


Any thoughts on the big strong Finnish winger Emil Hemming at #20, MjulQvist?
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

May 8 @ 1:26 PM ET
Levshunov is apparently up to 215. He's a big boy.

So I took a look at some of the Demidov clips. Ummm wow. The break away where he saucers the puck to himself was wild.

That's the get the puck to Bedard and make teams play player. One of the videos was very specific that he's the perfect player for young Connor.

BUT I get the argument Bill is making. I don't know enough about skating to know how correctable that stance is. The way his knees fold in looks like an ACL pop waiting to happen and a meniscus replacement by 30.

Also looks like he's trying to break his KHL contract and come over this summer which is interesting.

- fattybeef

I watched several too. He is something but it is a hilite reel which rarely show the negatives.

I also wonder about the level of competition he's playing against. There was one clip I saw where his opponents looked like they were 12.

As Bedard found out this year there are some things you can pull off against 16 and 17 year olds that you can't get away with in the NHL.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 8 @ 1:36 PM ET
Russia is not giving out passports and it could only get worse from here. They need a power forward who can score.
- bjphawkfan


The story was that Russia was not going to let their embassies perform consular services (including passport renewal). Hence, people would have to return to Russia in order to renew, or obtain, a passport. Yes, it's shady, but not quite as dire as some reports say. Also, FWIW, Russia has denied this is the case.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

May 8 @ 1:42 PM ET
KD has shown he's a wheeler-dealer on draft day. I don't think he'll trade down from #2, but will try to move up from 20. I wouldn't be surprised if he packages a pick, roster player or prospect with #20 to move higher IF there is someone on the board he desperately wants.
- boilermaker100


I had a good bit of catching up to do, and the content was solid, over at The Athletic yesterday. They had a post lottery mock last night with the team's beat writers making picks and thru #16 Catton was still on the board!!

This kid has a real chance to be an NHL top 6 guy, maybe even a 1st unit PP guy, and probably isn't getting enough love from some circles. If a kid like him, Iginla, Yakemchuk falls anywhere near 15-16 it might be a time to do what needs to be done to move up, including overpaying.

But, it could also be that KD and Crew are diggin a Hemming, Hage, Boisvert and figure he'll be there at #20.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

May 8 @ 1:46 PM ET
The story was that Russia was not going to let their embassies perform consular services (including passport renewal). Hence, people would have to return to Russia in order to renew, or obtain, a passport. Yes, it's shady, but not quite as dire as some reports say. Also, FWIW, Russia has denied this is the case.
- Chunk


I think I read the piece/blurb the same way. Boiled down the story said Russian citizens would have to come back to the motherland to get their passports renewed. ...... May or may not happen but at minimum it adds aq bit more funk/uncertainty to drafting a Russian.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

May 8 @ 2:07 PM ET
We really only know about Bedard upfront. Kurashev is not top 6 on a winner at this point.
- rpeters01

Sorry, I should have been more clear, these forwards are a nice foundation, not all necessarily top six, and of course they need much more talent up front.
Zach Jarom
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.01.2019

May 8 @ 2:34 PM ET
OK, so Zach and Scott Powers both are pretty sure that it is between Levshunov and Demidov. Is this just projection, or is this based on any actual information? From what I've seen there is a ton of difference of opinion on the 2-10 players.
- Chunk


After Celebrini these are the only two other prospects I have really looked into and as of now seems like its going to come down to them. I am going to take sometime to look into other options as well. This was just my spur of the moment first reaction opinion
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

May 8 @ 2:37 PM ET
I was curious about how much a team "typically" improves from a bottom 3 position and I looked at all the bottom 3 teams of the last 30 seasons (excluding cancelled seasons and adjusted for 82 games). The average improvement was about 13 points and the mean 12 points, but it was a pretty wide spread and not the most huge sample size. Just if anyone is curious.

14.4% of teams lost points (just like we did this season)
35.6% of teams gained points but less than 12.
24.4% of teams gained 12 to 20 points
14.4% of teams gained 21 to 30 points
11.1% of teams gained more than 30 points

This isn't a prediction and doesn't take into account how many years a team was near the bottom, but just a representation of how often teams have climbed and how fast from the bottom 3 on the list.

- breadbag


If they hit 14.4% again it could be a +20 pt increase

I guess it all depends on who they sign or trade for during the offseason.
I expect improvement from Bedard,Vlasic and Korch.
Fingers crossed for Reichel improvement,but not holding my breath.
If they draft Levshunov, does he go back to Michigan State? Or does he go pro?
If Levshunov can be something similar to Duncan Keith(as far as impacting a game not playing style) then I think they should go Levshunov over Demidov.

Everyone talks about Kane and Toewa,but no way in hell the Blackhawks are as dominant without Keith being a cyborg on the back end.
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

May 8 @ 2:38 PM ET
Hey Wiz!
Just out of curiousity...if Oliver Moore was in this draft class,where would he be ranked? Top 10?15?20?
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

May 8 @ 2:45 PM ET
Wiz as well as other voices in this board do not believe that KD has tipped his hand who he will select with the #2 overall.

Although I am not expecting a trade down in order to get both first round choices in the top ten, we just don't know if KD even considers such a move

I do know how how as fans sitting on the sidelines that we can dream to secure two top picks. All indications right now is that at #20 we will not get as good a prospect as at #19 last draft with Moore

Below is a point I want the board to seriously consider- as I am sure that KD must have already done

This idea about best player available is just so nefarious. I mean who is a consensus best available at #2 and even through our #20 overall. Lots of different answers if we peruse the shopping list or rating on each GM

So let us look at it another way: .Is there a forward at second overall ideally suited or desirable to play along side Bedard for the next decade plus? And....are you going to accept the strength as well as weaknesses from said player all the while strategizing what sort of player would complement as the third player on the line? Thr third member has to be a power forward who skates well and is reliable in defensive play too. Correct?!

Go ahead make your case for who to put along side Bedard. If it is Demidov though I want to know if he is able to re - learn skating with using his edges. He could compete much better if he uses his edges, right?

You know who the too dmen prospects are. I lean tiward taking a dman although I really want a forward with our second overall. I see the dman as a more solid pick. Just cannot see what is on KD's mind
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

May 8 @ 2:49 PM ET
Russia is not giving out passports and it could only get worse from here. They need a power forward who can score.
- bjphawkfan


That is pure speculation and not an issue atm. Sure anything can happen with crazy s**t going on around the world. There is also possibility that Levshunov doesn´t want to sing with the Hawks if drafted by them and goes somewhere else.

What we know now from Demidov´s agent Dan Milstein is that his client wants to come to NA after his contract is up. But of course a lot can happen in a year.
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

May 8 @ 2:54 PM ET
Any thoughts on the big strong Finnish winger Emil Hemming at #20, MjulQvist?
- Mr Ricochet


I think he could be considered there depending who is taken before that pick. Hemming is a big winger who has really good shot. I see he could have a breakout season in Liiga next year if he can be more consistent. He is really good skater too for his size.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

May 8 @ 3:13 PM ET
LA posted this in the last thread and I wanted to make sure it was seen. Injury concerns to his knees due to his skating style:

"On The Hockey Prospects show last weekend on NHL radio they said Demidov’s skating style is a knee injury in the making, especially cause he does not have Mitchkov’s build".

Who was making that statement LA, were there multiple guys saying it and did all of the people agree?
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