What’s all this now?
- ImThatGuy

Just what Adams has said, and Okposo basically throwing in the Towel in November, and Girgensons getting a D grade for his Non leadership and horrible season. All part of Top 3's winning Game Plan

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/updated-sabres-organizational-depth-chart/ar-BB1oFFEi?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=f3c74120a332450f8777b6328a20d25b&ei=15
- homiedclown

Thanks for the link, decent article.
-Glaring holes on the right side at F and D, which are traditionally harder positions to fill, although Greenway can play both sides at F, and I believe Novikov can play on the right too. Still, all in all kinda weak.
-Depth at C is relatively weak
-Depth at G is non-existant

At the NHL level, as I think we all know:
-3C is an immediate need for probably 2 years, if one believe Ostlund will be ready to go in '26-'27
-RW is an immediate need, at least at L3, unless you believe Savoie makes the jump, I have reservations about it, thinking he needs 1 year in AHL
-RhD is a need IMO to balance the handedness. Not a top need, but organizationally they need to beaf-up the depth.

Alot of the Top 6 targets cited seem to be LW's, I'd prefer to go RW myself. Kane makes all the sense in the world there for a couple of years. His contract would be easily absorbed with them moving away from Skinner one way or another.

Duchene is a guy who makes a ton of sense fit wise as a C/RW. At C he slots in as a decent 2C or high-end 3C, while he can play 1RW or 2RW. Other 3C candidates are likely better found in trades. I'm not sold on Stephenson as a FA for the full term of his likely contract. I still like the idea of Pageau for his remaing 2 years.

Lastly, I wouldn't mind a swap of Joker with Tampa for Jeannot, depending on Joker's contract "demands", but they could Qualify him at $2.6m to give them time to negotiate a new contract.

A bunch of middle six forwards, eh...? 🤔🤔🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/a...ource=user-shared-article

>>> The Sabres need to win now. With that in mind, the No. 11 pick and prospects are going to be part of trade conversations this offseason. Given what you know about this class and the prospect pool, would you prefer to deal the No. 11 pick or one of Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund or Jiri Kulich? How would you rank those assets? — Matt Fairburn

>>> Wheeler: Excluding the Sabres’ timeline/context, I think I’d go with the following based purely on value league-wide:
1. No. 11
2. Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie
4. Noah Ostlund

Kulich and Savoie may shift above the No. 11 pick given their proximity to the NHL, though, for Buffalo, in that they fit the timeline you’re talking about better and Sabres fans are tired of waiting.

>>> Pronman:

1. No 11.
2. Noah Ostlund/Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie

I like all of the forwards listed, but I think they’re all likely middle-six types, I don’t see the true high side in their games. With the No. 11 pick you’re probably hoping to get a player you think can be a true top-four defenseman or top-six forward on a good team. I also don’t think Savoie’s trade value is all that high in the NHL based on my survey of teams.

Can someone tell me if Edmonton or Florida is the slow team because I need someone to justify which team sucks and isn't fast

A bunch of middle six forwards, eh...? 🤔🤔🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/a...ource=user-shared-article

>>> The Sabres need to win now. With that in mind, the No. 11 pick and prospects are going to be part of trade conversations this offseason. Given what you know about this class and the prospect pool, would you prefer to deal the No. 11 pick or one of Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund or Jiri Kulich? How would you rank those assets? — Matt Fairburn

>>> Wheeler: Excluding the Sabres’ timeline/context, I think I’d go with the following based purely on value league-wide:
1. No. 11
2. Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie
4. Noah Ostlund

Kulich and Savoie may shift above the No. 11 pick given their proximity to the NHL, though, for Buffalo, in that they fit the timeline you’re talking about better and Sabres fans are tired of waiting.

>>> Pronman:

1. No 11.
2. Noah Ostlund/Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie

I like all of the forwards listed, but I think they’re all likely middle-six types, I don’t see the true high side in their games. With the No. 11 pick you’re probably hoping to get a player you think can be a true top-four defenseman or top-six forward on a good team. I also don’t think Savoie’s trade value is all that high in the NHL based on my survey of teams.
- kingcong39

Yeah we'll see what they say when he's the next Danny B

Yeah we'll see what they say when he's the next Danny B
- TheSabresTaco

Who: Berkly Catton?

Nobody else in their prospect pool is becoming that.

https://www.capfriendly.c.../armchair-gm/team/5265178
Some fun

A bunch of middle six forwards, eh...? 🤔🤔🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/a...ource=user-shared-article

>>> The Sabres need to win now. With that in mind, the No. 11 pick and prospects are going to be part of trade conversations this offseason. Given what you know about this class and the prospect pool, would you prefer to deal the No. 11 pick or one of Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund or Jiri Kulich? How would you rank those assets? — Matt Fairburn

>>> Wheeler: Excluding the Sabres’ timeline/context, I think I’d go with the following based purely on value league-wide:
1. No. 11
2. Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie
4. Noah Ostlund

Kulich and Savoie may shift above the No. 11 pick given their proximity to the NHL, though, for Buffalo, in that they fit the timeline you’re talking about better and Sabres fans are tired of waiting.

>>> Pronman:

1. No 11.
2. Noah Ostlund/Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie

I like all of the forwards listed, but I think they’re all likely middle-six types, I don’t see the true high side in their games. With the No. 11 pick you’re probably hoping to get a player you think can be a true top-four defenseman or top-six forward on a good team. I also don’t think Savoie’s trade value is all that high in the NHL based on my survey of teams.
- kingcong39

So your say prospects lose value over time, especially if you don't use them

Can someone tell me if Edmonton or Florida is the slow team because I need someone to justify which team sucks and isn't fast
- TheSabresTaco

Bobrovky’s contract is weighing Florida down, literally.

A bunch of middle six forwards, eh...? 🤔🤔🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/a...ource=user-shared-article

>>> The Sabres need to win now. With that in mind, the No. 11 pick and prospects are going to be part of trade conversations this offseason. Given what you know about this class and the prospect pool, would you prefer to deal the No. 11 pick or one of Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund or Jiri Kulich? How would you rank those assets? — Matt Fairburn

>>> Wheeler: Excluding the Sabres’ timeline/context, I think I’d go with the following based purely on value league-wide:
1. No. 11
2. Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie
4. Noah Ostlund

Kulich and Savoie may shift above the No. 11 pick given their proximity to the NHL, though, for Buffalo, in that they fit the timeline you’re talking about better and Sabres fans are tired of waiting.

>>> Pronman:

1. No 11.
2. Noah Ostlund/Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie

I like all of the forwards listed, but I think they’re all likely middle-six types, I don’t see the true high side in their games. With the No. 11 pick you’re probably hoping to get a player you think can be a true top-four defenseman or top-six forward on a good team. I also don’t think Savoie’s trade value is all that high in the NHL based on my survey of teams.
- kingcong39

A bunch of middle six forwards, eh...? 🤔🤔🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/a...ource=user-shared-article

>>> The Sabres need to win now. With that in mind, the No. 11 pick and prospects are going to be part of trade conversations this offseason. Given what you know about this class and the prospect pool, would you prefer to deal the No. 11 pick or one of Matt Savoie, Noah Ostlund or Jiri Kulich? How would you rank those assets? — Matt Fairburn

>>> Wheeler: Excluding the Sabres’ timeline/context, I think I’d go with the following based purely on value league-wide:
1. No. 11
2. Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie
4. Noah Ostlund

Kulich and Savoie may shift above the No. 11 pick given their proximity to the NHL, though, for Buffalo, in that they fit the timeline you’re talking about better and Sabres fans are tired of waiting.

>>> Pronman:

1. No 11.
2. Noah Ostlund/Jiri Kulich
3. Matt Savoie

I like all of the forwards listed, but I think they’re all likely middle-six types, I don’t see the true high side in their games. With the No. 11 pick you’re probably hoping to get a player you think can be a true top-four defenseman or top-six forward on a good team. I also don’t think Savoie’s trade value is all that high in the NHL based on my survey of teams.
- kingcong39

Rosen has been developing- I was told he was a home run draft pick….not even in the article?

So your say prospects like value over time, especially if you don't use them
- Buff36

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5265178
Some fun
- Buff36

Impressively stupid trade.

Rosen has been developing- I was told he was a home run draft pick….not even in the article?


- washedup20

Oh, Rosen was mentioned...

>>> It is very rare for a forward to become a star in the NHL if they don't cross over an equivalency of 20 in their first eligible draft year.

If they do do it they're almost always younger prospects (born roughly from March on) that start to get more ice time and opportunity after they're drafted.

Since 1990, there have been 907 "older" prospects drafted in their first eligible year that didn't have an equivalency of at least 20 by their draft year.

3. 3!!!!! of them turned into stars. 0.3%. And they were all Euros (Kovalev, Nylander, Semin).

I wonder if teams have any idea how dire those odds are when they take one of these ones relatively high, with hopes of turning them into a star or close to it?

Even more wild when you think that there's often a highly thought of prospect still sitting there that has a high star probability.



https://x.com/ByronMBader...0Awtuf7yJdum6yVwtmPw&s=19

Oh, Rosen was mentioned...

>>> It is very rare for a forward to become a star in the NHL if they don't cross over an equivalency of 20 in their first eligible draft year.

If they do do it they're almost always younger prospects (born roughly from March on) that start to get more ice time and opportunity after they're drafted.

Since 1990, there have been 907 "older" prospects drafted in their first eligible year that didn't have an equivalency of at least 20 by their draft year.

3. 3!!!!! of them turned into stars. 0.3%. And they were all Euros (Kovalev, Nylander, Semin).

I wonder if teams have any idea how dire those odds are when they take one of these ones relatively high, with hopes of turning them into a star or close to it?

Even more wild when you think that there's often a highly thought of prospect still sitting there that has a high star probability.



https://x.com/ByronMBader...0Awtuf7yJdum6yVwtmPw&s=19
- kingcong39

The NHL Draft is fun because of the age the prospect is picked at, 17 / 18, so much uncertainty.

Google Success by Draft Selection and you will find numerous articles that have measured Success by various ranges of the number of NHL games on average played for each selection...generally; a very high percentage in the 1 -5 picks (~90%), dropping off through 15 (~70%), further dropping through the end of round 1 (ending ~45%). Rd 2 as a whole is 35%.

OK, good. What about Quality of Success though?
What would be more fascinating to me anyway, is to see what Line these selections generally land on. I'd suggest EV-ATOI would be a good proxy representation. Maybe pick their Age 23 - 25 (D+5-7) range to give them time to fully develop Yet, I can't find any research on that.
I suspect there would be correlation to games played, just curious to see how high it is.

In any event, % of playing >99 NHL Games:
▪︎Savoie at #9 ~ 70%
▪︎Ostlund at #16 ~ 60%
▪︎Kulich at #28 ~ 40-45%
▪︎Benson at #13 ~ 60-65% put that one in the books as a big win as nearly achieving it in his first year and finishing second in his class for scoring (yet some seem to ignore the truth).

The other piece of info that would be interesting is to see is in what D+Year did they achieve their 100th game.

I'm quite sure Ventura has this nailed...wish we had access to it publicly.

Impressively stupid trade.
- kingcong39

If I could take Quinn out, I might think about it. Way it's looking the player you draft at 5 might be ready by the time Rosen Kulich Savoie get a chance

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2024-buffalo-sabres-player-report-card-zemgus-girgensons/
Oh my! Time to take the Train! Loser
- Buff36

"Zemgus Girgensons’ time in Buffalo has almost certainly come to an end, as the pending free agent is expected to test the market later this summer. If this is indeed it for him with the Sabres, he’s going out with a fizzle, not with a bang, as this season was one of the least productive of his NHL career."

Sabres selection at 11 has ~65% of playing >99 NHL games., and likely doesn't begin that journey until 3+/- years out. Savoie at 9 had slightly better odds, and is D+2 ...has likely 1 year left to go to be on target to start his NHL journey..and likely was held back due to the stupid CHL Rule the NHL agreed to. Yet, I'm supposed to believe his is less valuable than the 11th OA. Only reason zi can see to justify that is the selecting team has the choice of player and position being more attractive to them.

https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1804323039523541367?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Horrible Player! Just killing Edmonton
- Buff36

his pk work alone makes him a steal

"Zemgus Girgensons’ time in Buffalo has almost certainly come to an end, as the pending free agent is expected to test the market later this summer. If this is indeed it for him with the Sabres, he’s going out with a fizzle, not with a bang, as this season was one of the least productive of his NHL career."
- homiedclown

Guy misses an average of 15% or 12 games a season (covid seasons removed), and was grossly overpaid over his career, virtually stealing $6m from Pegula over the last 4 years when he should have been paid at the Vet Min.

Sabres selection at 11 has ~65% of playing >99 NHL games., and likely doesn't begin that journey until 3+/- years out. Savoie at 9 had slightly better odds, and is D+2 ...has likely 1 year left to go to be on target to start his NHL journey..and likely was held back due to the stupid CHL Rule the NHL agreed to. Yet, I'm supposed to believe his is less valuable than the 11th OA. Only reason zi can see to justify that is the selecting team has the choice of player and position being more attractive to them.
- IonSabres

2013 pick 11 Samuel Morin
2014 pick 11 Kevin Fiala
2015 pick 11 Lawson Crouse
2016 pick 11 Logan Brown
2017 pick 11 Gabriel Vilardi
2018 pick 11 Oliver Wahlstrom
2019 pick 11 Victor Soderstrom
2020 pick 11 Yaroslav Askarov


2024 pick 11 some random undersized winger

his pk work alone makes him a steal
- homiedclown

I think he would be a decent option if nothing else pans out.

Guy misses an average of 15% or 12 games a season (covid seasons removed), and was grossly overpaid over his career, virtually stealing $6m from Pegula over the last 4 years when he should have been paid at the Vet Min.
- IonSabres

passed on Tom Wilson Tomas Hertl Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Vasilevskiy to get the next Chris Drury

2013 pick 11 Samuel Morin
2014 pick 11 Kevin Fiala
2015 pick 11 Lawson Crouse
2016 pick 11 Logan Brown
2017 pick 11 Gabriel Vilardi
2018 pick 11 Oliver Wahlstrom
2019 pick 11 Victor Soderstrom
2020 pick 11 Yaroslav Askarov


2024 pick 11 some random undersized winger
- homiedclown

Kinda why I put that Montreal trade there.