So, I remain unconvinced that buying out Skinner was the best move for a team that needs to increase scoring. They do need to significantly reduce HDCA however, and the entirety of the roster shares in that hit. - IonSabres
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory Joined: 07.29.2021
Jul 30 @ 9:42 AM ET
One of the responders to his post snarky asked for him "now do the rest of the metrics" inferring once again that Skinner was a drain in the team.
So I decided to look up Jeff's metrics on Natural Stattrick. I usually look at With/Without CorsiFor metric to get a sense of his impact on the game isolated with a player's most common teammates.
I found what I consider to be pretty cool result, in most cases the CF% with individual teammates was higher than BOTH the Teammate's Without Jeff and the Jeff without that teammate's CF%.
As an example:
Jeff & Owen Power =54.26%
Jeff w/o Power = 50.23%
Power w/o Jeff = 50.59%
This result was similar to nearly every other if his most common linemates, except Tage where Tage had significantly higher CF% without Jeff than Jeff did w/o Tage.
Another was Krebs, but both Krebs and Skinner has significantly higher CF% without each other than they did together.
Weird. (I got the memo to use this word a lot).
The metrics above were for the last two seasons.
Skinner also had a very slight negative +/- of -2...not very damning.
Shots For with his most common teammates were consistently higher than Shots against (over 2 year span)
GF were higher in a high % of teammates than GA.
xGF and xGA were very, very close.
Scoring Chances For generally were higher than Scoring Chances Against in most cases
The biggest area where Skinner has bad metrics were in the HDCF vs HDCA ... They were negative in the vast majority of cases.
I'll remind everyone here that the Sabres as a whole +maybe better as a "hole") were terrible as a team in HDCF vs HDCA. Jeff surely contributed here, but so did nearly every player in the roster.
So, I remain unconvinced that buying out Skinner was the best move for a team that needs to increase scoring. They do need to significantly reduce HDCA however, and the entirety of the roster shares in that hit. - IonSabres
Good work on this! Cool stuff.
I do wonder how much of that is environment. If he was on the 3rd line, as he was destined to be next season for us, I would wager that gets pretty ugly.
One of the responders to his post snarky asked for him "now do the rest of the metrics" inferring once again that Skinner was a drain in the team.
So I decided to look up Jeff's metrics on Natural Stattrick. I usually look at With/Without CorsiFor metric to get a sense of his impact on the game isolated with a player's most common teammates.
I found what I consider to be pretty cool result, in most cases the CF% with individual teammates was higher than BOTH the Teammate's Without Jeff and the Jeff without that teammate's CF%.
As an example:
Jeff & Owen Power =54.26%
Jeff w/o Power = 50.23%
Power w/o Jeff = 50.59%
This result was similar to nearly every other if his most common linemates, except Tage where Tage had significantly higher CF% without Jeff than Jeff did w/o Tage.
Another was Krebs, but both Krebs and Skinner has significantly higher CF% without each other than they did together.
Weird. (I got the memo to use this word a lot).
The metrics above were for the last two seasons.
Skinner also had a very slight negative +/- of -2...not very damning.
Shots For with his most common teammates were consistently higher than Shots against (over 2 year span)
GF were higher in a high % of teammates than GA.
xGF and xGA were very, very close.
Scoring Chances For generally were higher than Scoring Chances Against in most cases
The biggest area where Skinner has bad metrics were in the HDCF vs HDCA ... They were negative in the vast majority of cases.
I'll remind everyone here that the Sabres as a whole +maybe better as a "hole") were terrible as a team in HDCF vs HDCA. Jeff surely contributed here, but so did nearly every player in the roster.
So, I remain unconvinced that buying out Skinner was the best move for a team that needs to increase scoring. They do need to significantly reduce HDCA however, and the entirety of the roster shares in that hit. - IonSabres
Nice lon! Little confused on the buy out. Hoping Kulich can step up.
One of the responders to his post snarky asked for him "now do the rest of the metrics" inferring once again that Skinner was a drain in the team.
So I decided to look up Jeff's metrics on Natural Stattrick. I usually look at With/Without CorsiFor metric to get a sense of his impact on the game isolated with a player's most common teammates.
I found what I consider to be pretty cool result, in most cases the CF% with individual teammates was higher than BOTH the Teammate's Without Jeff and the Jeff without that teammate's CF%.
As an example:
Jeff & Owen Power =54.26%
Jeff w/o Power = 50.23%
Power w/o Jeff = 50.59%
This result was similar to nearly every other if his most common linemates, except Tage where Tage had significantly higher CF% without Jeff than Jeff did w/o Tage.
Another was Krebs, but both Krebs and Skinner has significantly higher CF% without each other than they did together.
Weird. (I got the memo to use this word a lot).
The metrics above were for the last two seasons.
Skinner also had a very slight negative +/- of -2...not very damning.
Shots For with his most common teammates were consistently higher than Shots against (over 2 year span)
GF were higher in a high % of teammates than GA.
xGF and xGA were very, very close.
Scoring Chances For generally were higher than Scoring Chances Against in most cases
The biggest area where Skinner has bad metrics were in the HDCF vs HDCA ... They were negative in the vast majority of cases.
I'll remind everyone here that the Sabres as a whole +maybe better as a "hole") were terrible as a team in HDCF vs HDCA. Jeff surely contributed here, but so did nearly every player in the roster.
So, I remain unconvinced that buying out Skinner was the best move for a team that needs to increase scoring. They do need to significantly reduce HDCA however, and the entirety of the roster shares in that hit. - IonSabres
My biggest issue with skinner last year was that half way through the year. He just died. He got boarded / cross checked badly into the boards and never looked the same
His speed and stride died after that hit. He played with no pace.
Nice lon! Little confused on the buy out. Hoping Kulich can step up. - Buff36
Yeah given that we really did not use the cap space and have a ? at 2LW, the buy out only seems plausible if there was belief that Ruff and Skinner could not co-exist.
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY Joined: 05.05.2011
Jul 30 @ 10:24 AM ET
One of the responders to his post snarky asked for him "now do the rest of the metrics" inferring once again that Skinner was a drain in the team.
So I decided to look up Jeff's metrics on Natural Stattrick. I usually look at With/Without CorsiFor metric to get a sense of his impact on the game isolated with a player's most common teammates.
I found what I consider to be pretty cool result, in most cases the CF% with individual teammates was higher than BOTH the Teammate's Without Jeff and the Jeff without that teammate's CF%.
As an example:
Jeff & Owen Power =54.26%
Jeff w/o Power = 50.23%
Power w/o Jeff = 50.59%
This result was similar to nearly every other if his most common linemates, except Tage where Tage had significantly higher CF% without Jeff than Jeff did w/o Tage.
Another was Krebs, but both Krebs and Skinner has significantly higher CF% without each other than they did together.
Weird. (I got the memo to use this word a lot).
The metrics above were for the last two seasons.
Skinner also had a very slight negative +/- of -2...not very damning.
Shots For with his most common teammates were consistently higher than Shots against (over 2 year span)
GF were higher in a high % of teammates than GA.
xGF and xGA were very, very close.
Scoring Chances For generally were higher than Scoring Chances Against in most cases
The biggest area where Skinner has bad metrics were in the HDCF vs HDCA ... They were negative in the vast majority of cases.
I'll remind everyone here that the Sabres as a whole +maybe better as a "hole") were terrible as a team in HDCF vs HDCA. Jeff surely contributed here, but so did nearly every player in the roster.
So, I remain unconvinced that buying out Skinner was the best move for a team that needs to increase scoring. They do need to significantly reduce HDCA however, and the entirety of the roster shares in that hit. - IonSabres
This is a good post and you hit on a lot of points some of us have looked into in the past. Another great metric to use here is "relative" that you can use on that site, which tells you how well your guy stacks up with his team mates.
There's a lot of contextual value in between the lines of corsi gf hdcf etc that require a bigger deep dive. But at the end of the day, it came down to this.
1. 9M on the third line
2. Little to no value on ST
3. Slow
4. Won't back check
If money is no object, you keep him. He still provides offensive value. There was little reason to wait another year because that 6M hits no matter what. The Sabres attempted (and failed) to use his cap space thus far. But it will be far more valuable next season.
My biggest issue with skinner last year was that half way through the year. He just died. He got boarded / cross checked badly into the boards and never looked the same
His speed and stride died after that hit. He played with no pace. - Sabretooth9
This is a good post and you hit on a lot of points some of us have looked into in the past. Another great metric to use here is "relative" that you can use on that site, which tells you how well your guy stacks up with his team mates.
There's a lot of contextual value in between the lines of corsi gf hdcf etc that require a bigger deep dive. But at the end of the day, it came down to this.
1. 9M on the third line
2. Little to no value on ST
3. Slow
4. Won't back check
If money is no object, you keep him. He still provides offensive value. There was little reason to wait another year because that 6M hits no matter what. The Sabres attempted (and failed) to use his cap space thus far. But it will be far more valuable next season. - TheSabresTaco
When does a GM become a detriment to Your Team. Seems hearing NO is starting to effect the on ice product. - Buff36
the on ice product has sucked long before Adams shown up
my big issues is
10 months ago 6k was the #3 goalie and now we have almost 24 mil tied up in him
4th round picks we give up on right away when we are thin at d depth and giving contracts to guys like Jack Rathbone, Colton Poolman and Dennis Gilbert plus the kid has a hot mom.
draft picks like savoie are now worth pennies on the dollar due to lack of moves when the time was right to strike
the gm talks like he is going to make big moves then grabs 4th liners
I am not sure he is the guy to construct a cup competing team and he really has slow played pissing away dahlins tenure as a sabre
Location: Formerly Visionville, Now Purgatory Joined: 07.29.2021
Jul 30 @ 11:25 AM ET
the on ice product has sucked long before Adams shown up
my big issues is
10 months ago 6k was the #3 goalie and now we have almost 24 mil tied up in him
4th round picks we give up on right away when we are thin at d depth and giving contracts to guys like Jack Rathbone, Colton Poolman and Dennis Gilbert plus the kid has a hot mom.
draft picks like savoie are now worth pennies on the dollar due to lack of moves when the time was right to strike
the gm talks like he is going to make big moves then grabs 4th liners
I am not sure he is the guy to construct a cup competing team and he really has slow played pissing away dahlins tenure as a sabre - homiedclown
How about, as a base line:
Your career as a GM is a failure once fans start to wish Darcy Regier would come back. At least then we were middling.
the on ice product has sucked long before Adams shown up
my big issues is
10 months ago 6k was the #3 goalie and now we have almost 24 mil tied up in him
4th round picks we give up on right away when we are thin at d depth and giving contracts to guys like Jack Rathbone, Colton Poolman and Dennis Gilbert plus the kid has a hot mom.
draft picks like savoie are now worth pennies on the dollar due to lack of moves when the time was right to strike
the gm talks like he is going to make big moves then grabs 4th liners
I am not sure he is the guy to construct a cup competing team and he really has slow played pissing away dahlins tenure as a sabre - homiedclown
Yes, but Adams could have changed that with better moves and timing.
Your career as a GM is a failure once fans start to wish Darcy Regier would come back. At least then we were middling. - QuinnFan
As it was mentioned he probably gets fired twice in this time frame under any other ownership
Its gross. Sitting here a bit more than a month away from training camp knowing there is little more than hope to separate us from the bottom 15 is a (frank)ing joke
As it was mentioned he probably gets fired twice in this time frame under any other ownership
Its gross. Sitting here a bit more than a month away from training camp knowing there is little more than hope to separate us from the bottom 15 is a (frank)ing joke - ieetbred
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL Joined: 03.10.2013
Jul 30 @ 11:53 AM ET
This is a good post and you hit on a lot of points some of us have looked into in the past. Another great metric to use here is "relative" that you can use on that site, which tells you how well your guy stacks up with his team mates.
There's a lot of contextual value in between the lines of corsi gf hdcf etc that require a bigger deep dive. But at the end of the day, it came down to this.
1. 9M on the third line
2. Little to no value on ST
3. Slow
4. Won't back check
If money is no object, you keep him. He still provides offensive value. There was little reason to wait another year because that 6M hits no matter what. The Sabres attempted (and failed) to use his cap space thus far. But it will be far more valuable next season. - TheSabresTaco
I appreciate the feedback Taco, as I am not an expert in these Advanced Analytics, but do try to understand them and put them into forming a bigger picture... Although, at times I wonder if it is an Impressionistic painting more than a picture, lol.
The issue with the Buyout is the Cap Hit in Year 3 of $6.4m up from $4.4m in Year 2 and $1.4m this upcoming season.
To reduce the impact, the Sabres could have waited until the final year of his Contract and spread out the hit over 2 years.
Meh, it is what it is. I just don't like the narrative presented that he is an albatross.
Apparently, he took was injured in the back half of the season after getting off to a relatively blazing start.
