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Forums :: Blog World :: Puck Pix : Kevin Gibson on th Leafs.
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Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Saturday @ 8:56 AM ET
Opportunities to acquire players of Rantanen’s caliber don’t come along often.

They can change the fortunes of an entire franchise, the way Tkachuk put the Florida Panthers over the top, or Jack Eichel did the same for the Vegas ....

Why not roll the dice on 16 being as he will be a UFA and trade him for what could conceivably put the team over the top... instead of paying him Drai money which he will probably want.. N of 13 mil.

- dozerD10


Ultimately it comes down to how the conversations are going and what Marner wants. If Rantanen wanted - as they said - $13-$14m and was inflexible on the amount and Colorado was never going to go near that amount, then this was the best move they could make.

That being said Colorado received two years of Necas, who is a good player and probably - if he slots in with MacKinnon - capable of reaching 100 points given that he's on pace for 92 at the moment on a defensive-centric Canes team. After Necas they get Jack Quinn, a 2nd and a 4th. So the Avs are worse today than they were yesterday.

So the question is - is Marner inflexible? Will his salary demands cripple the Leafs? Is he perfectly willing to move and doesn't really care? If those conditions are true, then who would offer the Leafs a player that would be nearly as good, but not as good and make it worthwhile? Noting that Marner would also have to waive an NMC to make it happen.

Keller on Utah? Utah may be lovely but I doubt a team on the outside looking in provides the waiving appeal some think it would.

Eichel on Vegas? If Vegas actually thought Marner would make them better, I bet they would do this. Both players have NMCs and Vegas has no motivation to actually make the deal given that they're sitting atop of their division (perilously).

Konecny? Panarin? I wouldn't waive to go to Philly to be honest, but both Vegas and the Rangers could have appeal. That said Panarin is several years older, has an NMC and is more expensive . . .

The point is that I'm not sure what would be available that you could blockbuster out of it and keep your team as competitive.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Saturday @ 9:02 AM ET
I dont think this trade initiates more of the same caliber. This just worked for all involved
- Fakepartofme


I haven't heard any analysis of the trade. How does this work for Chicago? They get a 3rd round pick, lose Hall and eat half of Rantanen's salary for that?

From what I can tell it's a dreadful deal on all accounts for Chicago . . . I mean even the trade off in salary is about $1.4m when you consider dumping Hall and retaining on Rantanen. At the TDL Hall is likely worth a 2nd and perhaps a 1st if someone is desperate enough.

Carolina gives up next to nothing here in terms of what they receive and walks out of it with Rantanen and Hall. I mean there's one team that it really worked for.
GalacticStone
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: We shoulda let Uncle Billy finish the job.
Joined: 01.29.2013

Saturday @ 9:34 AM ET
I haven't heard any analysis of the trade. How does this work for Chicago? They get a 3rd round pick, lose Hall and eat half of Rantanen's salary for that?

From what I can tell it's a dreadful deal on all accounts for Chicago . . . I mean even the trade off in salary is about $1.4m when you consider dumping Hall and retaining on Rantanen. At the TDL Hall is likely worth a 2nd and perhaps a 1st if someone is desperate enough.

Carolina gives up next to nothing here in terms of what they receive and walks out of it with Rantanen and Hall. I mean there's one team that it really worked for.

- Monkeypunk


Carolina definitely got the better of this deal for now. But, in the end, their goaltending is still not good enough to plan a parade. If they flame out in the first or second round, and can't resign Rantanen, then not so much.

Hall probably wasn't going back to Chicago anyway and the retention is just one year, but I think they should have gotten a second at least or a prospect thrown in.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 9:52 AM ET
Carolina definitely got the better of this deal for now. But, in the end, their goaltending is still not good enough to plan a parade. If they flame out in the first or second round, and can't resign Rantanen, then not so much.

Hall probably wasn't going back to Chicago anyway and the retention is just one year, but I think they should have gotten a second at least or a prospect thrown in.

- GalacticStone


People always overate rental returns

Nelson and Petterson are the only rental that will get a 1st round pick in the deal. And that’s not even gaurenteed

Guentzel didn’t have one in his deal last year
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Saturday @ 10:16 AM ET
I haven't heard any analysis of the trade. How does this work for Chicago? They get a 3rd round pick, lose Hall and eat half of Rantanen's salary for that?

From what I can tell it's a dreadful deal on all accounts for Chicago . . . I mean even the trade off in salary is about $1.4m when you consider dumping Hall and retaining on Rantanen. At the TDL Hall is likely worth a 2nd and perhaps a 1st if someone is desperate enough.

Carolina gives up next to nothing here in terms of what they receive and walks out of it with Rantanen and Hall. I mean there's one team that it really worked for.

- Monkeypunk


I think for the Hawks ....Rantanen's only $6M in cash this year ...60% of the season is gone so they're only absorbing 50% of 2.4M .....$1.2M in cash ....they aren't a Cap team so the cap space is almost irrelevant to them.

1.2M in .......Hall and his 1M in remaining salary out. And they net a good 3rd round pick.

It's like trading Hall and 200k (and some irrlevant cap space) for a very good 3rd round pick. Good deal for Hawks b/c Hall may not have been worth much at the deadline because he's on the verge of death every shift.
GalacticStone
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: We shoulda let Uncle Billy finish the job.
Joined: 01.29.2013

Saturday @ 10:23 AM ET
Marner is munching edibles and hunting you in Call of Duty : https://archive.is/K3fAI
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Saturday @ 10:24 AM ET
Carolina definitely got the better of this deal for now. But, in the end, their goaltending is still not good enough to plan a parade. If they flame out in the first or second round, and can't resign Rantanen, then not so much.

Hall probably wasn't going back to Chicago anyway and the retention is just one year, but I think they should have gotten a second at least or a prospect thrown in.

- GalacticStone


Aho and Rantanen are besties so you'd hope Carolina knows what they're getting in terms of having to negotiate a long term deal.

Is Aho cool with Rantanen getting 12.5+M when he's getting 9.5M? Hope so or this kid is going to hit the market. AVs had 11.5M on the table and he said no way. I'm not saying it's a bad deal for Carolina at all but it's a huge risk.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Saturday @ 10:35 AM ET
Another reason I don't think Marner goes anywhere ..

A week or so ago Tree said "you could throw a dart at the number that Marner will end up signing" meaning the difference between the two sides is small. Big enough to prevent a deal but in the big scheme of things small stuff.

I'd imagine it's a 12.5 vs. 13.5 kind of battle. If I'm Tree I just keep it status quo and see how the next 4-5 months go for Mitch and that'll determine if my offer goes up.

Although this was the time of year last year when he blinked on Nylander's negotiation.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 10:40 AM ET
Another reason I don't think Marner goes anywhere ..

A week or so ago Tree said "you could throw a dart at the number that Marner will end up signing" meaning the difference between the two sides is small. Big enough to prevent a deal but in the big scheme of things small stuff.

I'd imagine it's a 12.5 vs. 13.5 kind of battle. If I'm Tree I just keep it status quo and see how the next 4-5 months go for Mitch and that'll determine if my offer goes up.

Although this was the time of year last year when he blinked on Nylander's negotiation.

- The Law



I don't even like Marner that much in terms of players I like to root for. But I want him signed.

Leafs make that trade and Necas comes back down to earth and is a 65 point player and the we basically traded Marner for a 65 point winger and a Connor Dewar.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Saturday @ 10:56 AM ET
I don't even like Marner that much in terms of players I like to root for. But I want him signed.

Leafs make that trade and Necas comes back down to earth and is a 65 point player and the we basically traded Marner for a 65 point winger and a Connor Dewar.

- Santo_44


Ya, lots of teams desperate for elite talent. Prices be damned on July 1st. Some team(s) will go to 14M x 7 for him so ~13M x 8 is just going to be the cost of doing business with stars.

If he flames out in the playoffs maybe you keep the 13M if you think there's a better way to improve the team ...but I doubt it.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 11:21 AM ET
Ya, lots of teams desperate for elite talent. Prices be damned on July 1st. Some team(s) will go to 14M x 7 for him so ~13M x 8 is just going to be the cost of doing business with stars.

If he flames out in the playoffs maybe you keep the 13M if you think there's a better way to improve the team ...but I doubt it.

- The Law


Cap is going up so much...You do it he is a fantastic player and will help us be a playoff team for the duration of his contract. It is up to management to be smart about adds.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 11:22 AM ET
Dewar on IR. Greb called up.

Man I have tried hard to like Dewar but I just don't know. I like that he can play C but I just feel there is better out there this TDL and could be a cap casualty.
GalacticStone
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: We shoulda let Uncle Billy finish the job.
Joined: 01.29.2013

Saturday @ 11:27 AM ET
What's Phil The Thrill doing now? Did he officially retire?

He would be a cheap addition. If the Leafs must have a pylon on their roster (Reaves), then why not get a pylon who can chip in a goal or two?

Shoot Reaves into the Sun and replace him Phil The Thrill.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:41 AM ET
MEGADEAL!!!
- Fakepartofme

sounds like something you'd get at McDonalds for potus.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:44 AM ET
Well if it was him wanting to test the market I get it

If it was then not wanting to pay him fair dollars I don’t. Necas had a hot start but he’s no where near Rantanen.

Also the hawks traded hall for a 3rd and had to retain 5M of Rantanens contract…for those who think getting other teams to retain is expensive

- Santo_44

oh, that's just bad negotiations by Davidson
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 11:46 AM ET
oh, that's just bad negotiations by Davidson
- dmnted

Every past deal I see is usually a 5th round pick. 4th high end and 6th low end.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:47 AM ET
Opportunities to acquire players of Rantanen’s caliber don’t come along often.

They can change the fortunes of an entire franchise, the way Tkachuk put the Florida Panthers over the top, or Jack Eichel did the same for the Vegas ....

Why not roll the dice on 16 being as he will be a UFA and trade him for what could conceivably put the team over the top... instead of paying him Drai money which he will probably want.. N of 13 mil.

- dozerD10

three little letters

NMC!
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 11:48 AM ET
Wonder what the cost would be for Seth Jones at 50%.

He grades out at a 5-5.5M D as it stands today.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:51 AM ET
Ultimately it comes down to how the conversations are going and what Marner wants. If Rantanen wanted - as they said - $13-$14m and was inflexible on the amount and Colorado was never going to go near that amount, then this was the best move they could make.

That being said Colorado received two years of Necas, who is a good player and probably - if he slots in with MacKinnon - capable of reaching 100 points given that he's on pace for 92 at the moment on a defensive-centric Canes team. After Necas they get Jack Quinn Drury, a 2nd and a 4th. So the Avs are worse today than they were yesterday.

So the question is - is Marner inflexible? Will his salary demands cripple the Leafs? Is he perfectly willing to move and doesn't really care? If those conditions are true, then who would offer the Leafs a player that would be nearly as good, but not as good and make it worthwhile? Noting that Marner would also have to waive an NMC to make it happen.

Keller on Utah? Utah may be lovely but I doubt a team on the outside looking in provides the waiving appeal some think it would.

Eichel on Vegas? If Vegas actually thought Marner would make them better, I bet they would do this. Both players have NMCs and Vegas has no motivation to actually make the deal given that they're sitting atop of their division (perilously).

Konecny? Panarin? I wouldn't waive to go to Philly to be honest, but both Vegas and the Rangers could have appeal. That said Panarin is several years older, has an NMC and is more expensive . . .

The point is that I'm not sure what would be available that you could blockbuster out of it and keep your team as competitive.

- Monkeypunk


time will tell i guess.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:56 AM ET
Every past deal I see is usually a 5th round pick. 4th high end and 6th low end.
- Santo_44

Marlow and a 1st!!!!

that's all I have to say.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Saturday @ 11:59 AM ET
Wonder what the cost would be for Seth Jones at 50%.

He grades out at a 5-5.5M D as it stands today.

- Santo_44

Niemela + 3rd 2026 (for retention )
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 12:00 PM ET
Marlow and a 1st!!!!

that's all I have to say.

- dmnted


That was at the draft....

Very very very different clearing a full 6M cap and 6M salary from a replacement level player right before FA rather than a 60-70% paid off salary + multiple teams accumulating an abundance of cap space.

I mean it isn't hard. go look at trade history.

4-6th round picks has been the cost for years. And when it is a 4th it is usually because it is in a draft 2-3 years into the future. Like when Dubas got a 4th for retaining a few M from Lehners contract at the TDL.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Saturday @ 12:00 PM ET
Didnt take long for ek to need some clicks.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Saturday @ 12:02 PM ET
oh, that's just bad negotiations by Davidson
- dmnted

Ya thats a horrible deal for chicago. He got bent over.
We've all seen the chart for what it cost to retain
But some think this is nhl 22 ps4 negotiating......actually its too bad you couldn't retain in those games in gm mode.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Saturday @ 12:14 PM ET
Ya thats a horrible deal for chicago. He got bent over.
We've all seen the chart for what it cost to retain
But some think this is nhl 22 ps4 negotiating......actually its too bad you couldn't retain in those games in gm mode.

- Fakepartofme

To his credit it is their own 3rd so it will be basically a 2nd from a top 5 team.

He essentially traded Hall and retained around 2.5M in actual dollars to move up around 40-50 draft selections assuming they could have brokered and received a 4th rounder.
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