In fairness, Seravalli does say that it's obviously just a starting point for Dobson's side . But to me that says he is looking for his contract to be closer to $10M than $9M. I've always operated under the assumption that his deal would come in somewhere around $9.5M, give or take a little. $10M is....fine? People will scoff at the number but the cap is going to go up almost another $20M by the 2027-28 season and then all the sudden that deal doesn't look as bad as it may seem now.

For reference:

A $10M AAV with the cap of $113.5M is 8.8% of the total cap. 8.8% of the present-day cap ($95.5M) would be $8.36M AAV. So, if $8.36M for Dobson right now would look OK to fans, $10M in the 2027-28 season should be the same.
- Gabe Athaus

I'd be hesitant to commit $9 million, let alone $10 million over the long-term to a d-man who looked shaky on D last season, even if his offense is pretty good. So if I'm the Islanders' GM (and not just a HockeyBuzz GM) and I wanted to keep Dobson for now, then I would offer him a bridge contract that says "Show me you can play better defense." Since he's an RFA (with arbitration rights) and not a UFA, maybe I would offer 2 years at $8MM per season.

Otherwise, I'd be offering up Dobson as the centerpiece of the trade for the pick that gets us Hagens.

The guy checking his hair in the mirror in the first part of that clip actually just died, saw that on Twitter this morning




- Gabe Athaus

Sorry to hear that. Still the best hockey movie.

I'd be hesitant to commit $9 million, let alone $10 million over the long-term to a d-man who looked shaky on D last season, even if his offense is pretty good. So if I'm the Islanders' GM (and not just a HockeyBuzz GM) and I wanted to keep Dobson for now, then I would offer him a bridge contract that says "Show me you can play better defense." Since he's an RFA (with arbitration rights) and not a UFA, maybe I would offer 2 years at $8MM per season.

Otherwise, I'd be offering up Dobson as the centerpiece of the trade for the pick that gets us Hagens.
- JohnScammo

They can't offer two years, that's only buying up one UFA year. And the Isles may start at $8M but if that's their ceiling then they may as well just go ahead and trade him right now.

I think he's absolutely worth $9M in this market. $10M is a little steeper, but at ~8% of the cap three seasons from now I don't really have a huge issue with it. The risk is in determining whether or not he's going to be a 60-70pt defenseman or a 40-50pt one. He's probably never going to be a defensive stalwart but if he can move the puck and generate a significant amount of offense from the blueline he's absolutely worth that contract. But if his 70pt season was an outlier and not something he can repeat with some consistency then yeah, $10M is going to be too much.

Sorry to hear that. Still the best hockey movie.
- JohnScammo

Without a doubt. The anthem scene after the pregame brawl cracks me up every time. I'M LISTENING TO THE (frank)ING SONG

In fairness, Seravalli does say that it's obviously just a starting point for Dobson's side . But to me that says he is looking for his contract to be closer to $10M than $9M. I've always operated under the assumption that his deal would come in somewhere around $9.5M, give or take a little. $10M is....fine? People will scoff at the number but the cap is going to go up almost another $20M by the 2027-28 season and then all the sudden that deal doesn't look as bad as it may seem now.

For reference:

A $10M AAV with the cap of $113.5M is 8.8% of the total cap. 8.8% of the present-day cap ($95.5M) would be $8.36M AAV. So, if $8.36M for Dobson right now would look OK to fans, $10M in the 2027-28 season should be the same.
- Gabe Athaus

Would you give him 8.5 ? If so for how long?
If I’m giving him 8.5 it’s for a shorter term like 3 years and have him earn the 8 year deal.
For me he just wasn’t good last year and I want to see more out of him before I’m committing to an 8 year deal.

They can't offer two years, that's only buying up one UFA year. And the Isles may start at $8M but if that's their ceiling then they may as well just go ahead and trade him right now.

I think he's absolutely worth $9M in this market. $10M is a little steeper, but at ~8% of the cap three seasons from now I don't really have a huge issue with it. The risk is in determining whether or not he's going to be a 60-70pt defenseman or a 40-50pt one. He's probably never going to be a defensive stalwart but if he can move the puck and generate a significant amount of offense from the blueline he's absolutely worth that contract. But if his 70pt season was an outlier and not something he can repeat with some consistency then yeah, $10M is going to be too much.
- Gabe Athaus

Okay, that's where we differ. You are measuring him mostly in terms of his offensive output, whereas I think that the main job of a d-man is to keep the puck out of his net. I'm not saying offense isn't important, but it's just less important than defense. Since his D was shaky last season, I would not want to commit major $$ to him for more than the next 2 seasons, even if I'm only buying up one UFA season.

Would you give him 8.5 ? If so for how long?
If I’m giving him 8.5 it’s for a shorter term like 3 years and have him earn the 8 year deal.
For me he just wasn’t good last year and I want to see more out of him before I’m committing to an 8 year deal.
- nyisles7

I'm not sure he'd do it, but at that number maybe 3 or 4 years would work for me. But they'd have to be fully prepared to either lose him for nothing or be forced to trade him regardless of where they were in the standings in the final year of his deal.

Okay, that's where we differ. You are measuring him mostly in terms of his offensive output, whereas I think that the main job of a d-man is to keep the puck out of his net. I'm not saying offense isn't important, but it's just less important than defense. Since his D was shaky last season, I would not want to commit major $$ to him for more than the next 2 seasons, even if I'm only buying up one UFA season.
- JohnScammo

He's still not quite at that age where defenseman can usually be considered fully-developed. I think he still has growth left in his game. A lot of the analytics don't have his defense nearly as bad as you believe it is. And I'm not taking those as gospel either, but I do take it into account.

Example:



Also, I don't only care about his offense. He's one of the only defenseman we have (if not the only) that can consistently exit the defensive zone with control of the puck. That counts for a lot because guys like Mayfield just going glass-and-out and turning over possession in the neutral zone are only putting them right back in their own end. Not trying to gloss over some of his poor decision-making and blown assignments in the d-zone, because there are undoubtedly issues, but I just think it's not as bad as you do and believe there's still some room for him to grow between the ears.

I'm not sure he'd do it, but at that number maybe 3 or 4 years would work for me. But they'd have to be fully prepared to either lose him for nothing or be forced to trade him regardless of where they were in the standings in the final year of his deal.
- Gabe Athaus

Yeah I think it will be 8 to 9 million for 3 or maybe 4 years.
Edit: Let me add, trading him could be Toews 2.0 and for the love of God i couldn’t take reading that on the internet for the rest of Darsch’s term!

Yeah I think it will be 8 to 9 million for 3 or maybe 4 years.
- nyisles7

It could be a route he's interested in going, it's definitely getting somewhat more popular among some of the better players in the league. That would carry him to his age 28 or 29 season and he could still cash in on one more huge deal at that age.

It could be a route he's interested in going, it's definitely getting somewhat more popular among some of the better players in the league. That would carry him to his age 28 or 29 season and he could still cash in on one more huge deal at that age.
- Gabe Athaus

Yes, and honestly I don’t want to trade him unless it’s a haul.

He's still not quite at that age where defenseman can usually be considered fully-developed. I think he still has growth left in his game. A lot of the analytics don't have his defense nearly as bad as you believe it is. And I'm not taking those as gospel either, but I do take it into account.

Example:



Also, I don't only care about his offense. He's one of the only defenseman we have (if not the only) that can consistently exit the defensive zone with control of the puck. That counts for a lot because guys like Mayfield just going glass-and-out and turning over possession in the neutral zone are only putting them right back in their own end. Not trying to gloss over some of his poor decision-making and blown assignments in the d-zone, because there are undoubtedly issues, but I just think it's not as bad as you do and believe there's still some room for him to grow between the ears.
- Gabe Athaus

I wish I knew how to read that graph you posted. I'm guessing that bigger numbers are good and lower numbers are bad? I'm going mostly by the eye test where he seemed to be on the ice for a lot of goals against, which is backed up by his plus-minus of -16 which is lowest on the team of any D-man. However, I recognize the shortcomings of plus-minus, and the fact that Dobson's plus-minus took a hit, because he's one of the guys they put out there when they frequently had to pull the goalie, because they were trailing near the end of the game. It's not entirely fair to blame him for the empty net goals against. That's why I was interested in your advanced analytics.

Yes, and honestly I don’t want to trade him unless it’s a haul.
- nyisles7

It would have to be something good, unless they were way apart on a deal and weren't able to come to an agreement. In which case they could either trade him now or go to arbitration, take the one year contract, and move him at the deadline. Risk with either one of those options though.

Buffalo is almost certainly going to have to move JJ Peterka and seems like they may move Bowen Byram also. I wonder if there's not a deal there where they could trade both plus the #9 pick for Dobson and maybe another asset.

I wish I knew how to read that graph you posted. I'm guessing that bigger numbers are good and lower numbers are bad? I'm going mostly by the eye test where he seemed to be on the ice for a lot of goals against, which is backed up by his plus-minus of -16 which is lowest on the team of any D-man. However, I recognize the shortcomings of plus-minus, and the fact that Dobson's plus-minus took a hit, because he's one of the guys they put out there when they frequently had to pull the goalie, because they were trailing near the end of the game. It's not entirely fair to blame him for the empty net goals against. That's why I was interested in your advanced analytics.
- JohnScammo

I gotta go back and find the primer on how they account for those numbers, as in what analytics they're using to tabulate those "scores". But Andy and Rono (the twitter account/website that posts those particular player cards) are pretty well respected among the media. I'm not the diehard analytics guy that thinks posting a chart that says someone is good is the end-all, be-all of evaluating a player (and I generally hate that crowd)...but I do think they are useful.

It would have to be something good, unless they were way apart on a deal and weren't able to come to an agreement. In which case they could either trade him now or go to arbitration, take the one year contract, and move him at the deadline. Risk with either one of those options though.

Buffalo is almost certainly going to have to move JJ Peterka and seems like they may move Bowen Byram also. I wonder if there's not a deal there where they could trade both plus the #9 pick for Dobson and maybe another asset.
- Gabe Athaus

Very interesting the Buffalo angle.

Very interesting the Buffalo angle.
- nyisles7

I'd suspect Dobson alone wouldn't be enough to get Peterka (who is an RFA in need of a deal also), Byram, and the 9th overall. Maybe Peterka and Byram alone, but even then I'd imagine that they want to get something else from Darche.

Regardless, that creates a hole down the line at RHD. They could re-sign DeAngelo to fill Dobson's void for the next couple years, but they don't have any notable RHD in the system.

https://www.dailyfaceoff....i-dobson-pageau-kane-rust

I'd suspect Dobson alone wouldn't be enough to get Peterka (who is an RFA in need of a deal also), Byram, and the 9th overall. Maybe Peterka and Byram alone, but even then I'd imagine that they want to get something else from Darche.

Regardless, that creates a hole down the line at RHD. They could re-sign DeAngelo to fill Dobson's void for the next couple years, but they don't have any notable RHD in the system.
- Gabe Athaus

RHD are scarce in the league.
I would definitely sign Tony D to a deal.
I thought he was better than Dobson as far as transporting the puck. His stretch passes were really good and honestly the only one on the team that could do them well.
Have to think you can get him at a good deal considering his past.

I'm not sure he'd do it, but at that number maybe 3 or 4 years would work for me. But they'd have to be fully prepared to either lose him for nothing or be forced to trade him regardless of where they were in the standings in the final year of his deal.
- Gabe Athaus

Or if he grows and becomes a difference maker you extend him. No reason you have to loose him.

Or if he grows and becomes a difference maker you extend him. No reason you have to loose him.
- nyisles7

Or course, but he's also exponentially more likely to test the UFA market as a 29yo looking for his last massive payday. Not implying they couldn't extend him, just that they run the risk of him wanting out or wanting to go to market where he can field a ton of offers. Obviously in that scenario the Isles would still have the bargaining chip of the 8th year, but you never know where the team will be by then.

It's a tough call if they're going into the final year of his deal with no extension in place or on the horizon and they're, say, a likely bubble playoff team. Do they treat him like a rental and go for it? Or do they mitigate their risk and get a haul for him on the trade market and take the assets?

Or course, but he's also exponentially more likely to test the UFA market as a 29yo looking for his last massive payday. Not implying they couldn't extend him, just that they run the risk of him wanting out or wanting to go to market where he can field a ton of offers. Obviously in that scenario the Isles would still have the bargaining chip of the 8th year, but you never know where the team will be by then.

It's a tough call if they're going into the final year of his deal with no extension in place or on the horizon and they're, say, a likely bubble playoff team. Do they treat him like a rental and go for it? Or do they mitigate their risk and get a haul for him on the trade market and take the assets?
- Gabe Athaus

I think as you said that depends on how competitive they are in 3 years. He may be a stud at that point and maybe even captain material. Only time will tell.
I just don’t want to move him yet. Unless he wants out for some reason or another.
Darsch has his work cut out for him.

Stefen Rosner
@stefen_rosner
3m
According to an interview with @hockeysverige, the No. 1 hockey news outlet in Sweden, #Isles G prospect Marcus Gidlöf shared that he will be coming over for development camp
@TheHockeyNews

New York Islanders
@NYIslanders
10m
#Isles News: The New York Islanders announced today that Rocky Thompson has been named Head Coach of the Bridgeport Islanders. He becomes the 10th Head Coach in team history.

Bridgeport Islanders
@AHLIslanders
2m
Rocky Thompson won the 2017 Memorial Cup Championship with the Windsor Spitfires before leading the Chicago Wolves to a record of 44-22-10 and a Calder Cup appearance in 2018-19!

Asst coach with the Flyers for the last three years

Stefen Rosner
@stefen_rosner
3m
According to an interview with @hockeysverige, the No. 1 hockey news outlet in Sweden, #Isles G prospect Marcus Gidlöf shared that he will be coming over for development camp
@TheHockeyNews

- Gabe Athaus

New coach for The Bridge announced, Rocky Thompson.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing Trevor Zegras will be traded to Philadelphia

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
46s
Poehling, 45th this year and 4th next year