Probably worth noting that Raymond's D+1 year was cut short by injury. He also played on a very low-scoring team. Imagine playing on NYI. ASP and MBS are playing for the reigning champions who score about 0.5 goals more per game than Raymond's squad. Imagine them playing on Florida or Colorado. The gap - so far - is probably wider than it appears.
- Cooleus
Worth noting, sure, but I'm not sure I buy that we can safely conclude lower scoring team = higher projection at the same individual ppg.
First of all, that gap only really appears in DY+1, which is the current year for MBN (and he's only played 13 games so far):
DY-1 Raymond played on a 3.6 goals/g junior team
DY-1 MBN played on a 3.6 goals/g junior team
DY Raymond played on a 2.96 goals/g SHL team.
DY MBN played on a 2.92 goals/g HockeyAllsvenskan team.
DY+1 Raymond played on a 2.56 goals/g SHL team
DY+1 MBN is playing on a team that's currently 3 goals/g after 21 games
Second of all, I'm not entirely convinced that team scoring has a consistent, highly correlated impact on individual scoring rates until you get to the truly extreme ends of the spectrum (like, you're on a line with Mario Lemieux, or playing on a team that spends 70 percent of the game in its own zone). A support player on a crappy team might have worse teammates overall but comparable linemate quality and more opportunity due to playing higher in the lineup. It's extremely nuanced and situational, and frankly I don't know enough about ice time, linemates, deployment, etc. between Raymond on 2021 Frolunda vs MBN on 2025 Seklleftea to conclude with confidence that Raymond necessarily had the more challenging scoring environment.
Third, as long as we're nitpicking scoring environment, it's also worth noting that MBN is listed as 2 inches taller and 10 pounds heavier than Raymond, and there is a small but positive correlation between size and ability to maintain scoring rates at higher levels.
Ultimately, though, we won't know for a few years yet. I've been higher than most on MBN's potential scoring impact (I think he projects better than Kasper or Danielson at similar ages) but there's still a meaningful chance he flames out entirely. Because that's just reality with prospect development.
