Jeremy Laura: Red Wings Cam Talbot steals a point as Detroit falls to Blues 2-1 in OT

Over the past two full months, STL has three regulation losses. They are 18-3-3 since February 1st and they've out hustled and outworked every team they've played. Their regulation losses were to FLA, DAL, and PIT. Their OT losses were to EDM, WPG and LAK, and they've beaten all of those teams, including COL twice. I'd say the Wings were lucky to sneak a road point out of a team that has one regulation home loss since January, have won 10 in a row, and have been the hottest team in the league for two months.

The Wings get to finish out the month of April against CAR, FLA, MTL, FLA, TB, DAL, NJD and TOR, more than half on the road. I'd say get those clubs polished off boys, because they aren't going to have a winning record against 7 playoff teams, all playing playoff level hockey.

Second Thought on Augustine, maybe team told him he is a few years away..so he opts for college life instead of AHL for one more year?

Second Thought on Augustine, maybe team told him he is a few years away..so he opts for college life instead of AHL for one more year?
- TrueGrit

so that begs the question, developmentally is the AHL a tougher league than college? Sign an ELC, get 100k bonus and about the same in salary with an option for callup plus preseason. There’s no part of me that thinks he can grow his game more in college. That’s where the wait to see if $ is on the table. The AHL is the 2nd best league in North America, goalies, almost regardless, are going to do some time there. I don’t think his stint would be massive if he continues to progress. The decision brings up more questions than answers.

Second Thought on Augustine, maybe team told him he is a few years away..so he opts for college life instead of AHL for one more year?
- TrueGrit

Pretty much every team in the NHL overcooks their goalies. You have to go back six years before finding the most recently drafted goalies who have made the NHL full time, and one of them (Kochetkov) was drafted as an overager. Spencer Knight and Dustin Wolf, at 23 (!!!), are the youngest NHL goalies who have not also played AHL games this year.

2024 draft: No goalies with NHL games so far
2023 draft: No goalies with NHL games so far
2022 draft: No full time NHLers yet. Hildeby leads with 6 career GP.
2021 draft: No full time NHLers yet. Kolosov leads with 15 career GP
2020 draft: No full time NHLers yet. Daws leads with 51 GP.
2019 draft: Three full time NHLers (Pyotr Kochetkov, Spencer Knight, Dustin Wolf)

Here’s the issue as I see it. Basically, if you are a goalie, no matter where you were drafted or how well you play in the minor leagues, chances are you’re not getting a full time NHL gig until you’re at least 22-23, or maybe just flat out until you’re out of waiver exemptions, unless you get the job through an injury emergency and never give it back. You are going to play at least two seasons in the AHL, and probably more, for sub $100k on a two-way deal.

For Augustine, the projections probably look something like:

Option 1: One more year at MSU, at least 2 years in the AHL at minor league salary (~$80k), NHL
Option 2: At least 3 years in the AHL at minor league salary, NHL.

Honestly the college route looks way more appealing, whether NIL money is involved or not.

The only real disadvantage I can think of to staying in college would be extending his waiver exemption status an extra season. Signing his ELC in 2026 instead of 2025 would mean the Wings potentially wouldn’t be forced to promote him to the NHL or risk losing him on waivers until 2030 instead of 2029. But Augustine would already be 24 by 2029 anyway, so unless his AHL career goes way sideways he’d probably be an NHL regular by then anyway, even at the glacial pace that NHL teams promote goalies. If he's betting on himself to be a solid NHLer than in all likelihood it won't make one lick of difference to his career trajectory where he plays this season.

Of course, there’s another big advantage to waiting: If Augustine thinks he’s got a better path to an NHL starting gig with another organization, he can just not sign at all, play four years at MSU, then sign with anyone.

Just as an addendum / elaboration:

The reason I don't really buy the "AHL would be better for his development" argument is because, if you accept the premise that he's not making the NHL full time anyway until 2028 at the earliest, he's still going to playing in the AHL for two years even if he returns to MSU this year. Two years of AHL competition is more than enough to prepare a goalie for the next level.

If the point was to be the best goalie possible by summer 2026, yeah, sure, he'd be better off playing in the AHL now. But if you're not making the show until 2028 then who cares? You either "stall your development" now or you stall it later. Might as well stall it now and go for an NCAA championship.

Just as an addendum / elaboration:

The reason I don't really buy the "AHL would be better for his development" argument is because, if you accept the premise that he's not making the NHL full time anyway until 2028 at the earliest, he's still going to playing in the AHL for two years even if he returns to MSU this year. Two years of AHL competition is more than enough to prepare a goalie for the next level.

If the point was to be the best goalie possible by summer 2026, yeah, sure, he'd be better off playing in the AHL now. But if you're not making the show until 2028 then who cares? You either "stall your development" now or you stall it later. Might as well stall it now and go for an NCAA championship.
- Sven22

I would agree on most goalies, but this is literally one of the top in the league. Reps vs tougher competition = better development. What do we ask? Has he hit the ceiling of what the college route can offer? It certainly seems like it. I completely disagree on the “stall it now or stall it later” premise. If this were a middle of the pack goalie in the NCAA, another year may be called for. But he’s not that, not even close. MSU’s slogan became, “in Trey we trust”. He carried the team through one of the toughest conferences in college. The point about the money is where did it come from. Only one state has a law that bans investigation of the source, the amount of money etc and that’s Oklahoma. We’re going to disagree on this and that’s fine. But if you feel (and I believe you’ve said this) that Cossa is ready for a look at the NHL, Augustine would have a legitimate shot at a 1A/1b position in the AHL. There are more details that need to be solidified on this one, but if the organization was willing to do an ELC last year they were more than ready this year. The AHL salary went up as far as I can see. MBN slated for 975 and Nate Danielson at 918.

i apologize, you were right on the minors salary, was look at NHL salary

I would agree on most goalies, but this is literally one of the top in the league. Reps vs tougher competition = better development. What do we ask? Has he hit the ceiling of what the college route can offer? It certainly seems like it. I completely disagree on the “stall it now or stall it later” premise. If this were a middle of the pack goalie in the NCAA, another year may be called for. But he’s not that, not even close. MSU’s slogan became, “in Trey we trust”. He carried the team through one of the toughest conferences in college. The point about the money is where did it come from. Only one state has a law that bans investigation of the source, the amount of money etc and that’s Oklahoma. We’re going to disagree on this and that’s fine. But if you feel (and I believe you’ve said this) that Cossa is ready for a look at the NHL, Augustine would have a legitimate shot at a 1A/1b position in the AHL. There are more details that need to be solidified on this one, but if the organization was willing to do an ELC last year they were more than ready this year. The AHL salary went up as far as I can see. MBN slated for 975 and Nate Danielson at 918.
- Jeremy Laura

For me, it's not about AHL vs NCAA. Trey has proven he's among the best in the world at the amateur level, but playing NCAA and pro are very different things. Trey has played every single game at MSU since he came on campus. In pro, best-case scenario is about 60% of the games. It takes a different mindset to mentally and physically prepare for 82+ but only play 40 something games. You have to be ready for the games you aren't scheduled to play, and college starters aren't used to that. Road trips are very different, it's not Friday/Saturday away games once a month, it's actual road trips, on crappy busses, staying in crappy hotels, eating crappy food while in the minors. That's very different from a preparation standpoint. Finally, the pressure on players, particularly the goalie is very different in pro versus college. At MSU, he's not under any pressure to continuously improve, because he's already at the top. When he turns pro, he's going to be under pressure to become an elite goalie for the Wings.

To put it in perspective, about 7.1% of NCAA D1 players go on to the NHL, which means 92.9% of players Trey is competing against will never skate on an NHL rink. Conversely (and surprisingly), 100% of NHL players will go on to play at the NHL level. He's not going to be challenged anywhere remotely close at MSU as he will when he turns pro. Maybe he doesn't think he's ready, maybe the Wings don't think he's ready, who knows the reason, but from a development standpoint, there's no comparison between NCAA and pro.

For me, it's not about AHL vs NCAA. Trey has proven he's among the best in the world at the amateur level, but playing NCAA and pro are very different things. Trey has played every single game at MSU since he came on campus. In pro, best-case scenario is about 60% of the games. It takes a different mindset to mentally and physically prepare for 82+ but only play 40 something games. You have to be ready for the games you aren't scheduled to play, and college starters aren't used to that. Road trips are very different, it's not Friday/Saturday away games once a month, it's actual road trips, on crappy busses, staying in crappy hotels, eating crappy food while in the minors. That's very different from a preparation standpoint. Finally, the pressure on players, particularly the goalie is very different in pro versus college. At MSU, he's not under any pressure to continuously improve, because he's already at the top. When he turns pro, he's going to be under pressure to become an elite goalie for the Wings.

To put it in perspective, about 7.1% of NCAA D1 players go on to the NHL, which means 92.9% of players Trey is competing against will never skate on an NHL rink. Conversely (and surprisingly), 100% of NHL players will go on to play at the NHL level. He's not going to be challenged anywhere remotely close at MSU as he will when he turns pro. Maybe he doesn't think he's ready, maybe the Wings don't think he's ready, who knows the reason, but from a development standpoint, there's no comparison between NCAA and pro.
- bluelineenforcer

I get what you're saying, but I really am skeptical that playing an extra year of NCAA (with the likely result being one fewer year of AHL seasoning) is going to have much if any long-term impact.

Even among non-goalies we have seen examples of players who chose to “overstay” in a lower competitive level and turned out fine anyway. Adam Fox went back to college for his junior season instead of signing with Calgary and probably playing with their AHL affiliate. Perhaps a more relevant example to Augustine’s situation: Cale Makar played two seasons of Junior A instead of major juniors so he could preserve his NCAA eligibility. Was Makar’s development “stunted” by playing Junior A competition at age 16 and 17? I mean, hypothetically speaking, he probably would have been a better player as of his 18th birthday if he’d played in the CHL instead. But I think it’s fair to say it didn’t take a whole lot of NCAA/pro experience to close whatever gap there was.

You’re not wrong that the AHL is a better developmental environment than NCAA for Augustine. My counterargument is that it won’t take three years of AHL seasoning for Augustine to develop the pro mentality and technical skills he needs to play in the NHL. It probably won’t even take two. But in all likelihood he's three years out from getting Detroit’s crease no matter what he does.

I don’t care if Augustine is the best goalie he can possibly be at age 21. I care that he’s the best goalie he can be by the time he’s actually in Detroit. Does playing in the NCAA again this year push back his timetable for that? I’m not convinced that it does.

I get what you're saying, but I really am skeptical that playing an extra year of NCAA (with the likely result being one fewer year of AHL seasoning) is going to have much if any long-term impact.

Even among non-goalies we have seen examples of players who chose to “overstay” in a lower competitive level and turned out fine anyway. Adam Fox went back to college for his junior season instead of signing with Calgary and probably playing with their AHL affiliate. Perhaps a more relevant example to Augustine’s situation: Cale Makar played two seasons of Junior A instead of major juniors so he could preserve his NCAA eligibility. Was Makar’s development “stunted” by playing Junior A competition at age 16 and 17? I mean, hypothetically speaking, he probably would have been a better player as of his 18th birthday if he’d played in the CHL instead. But I think it’s fair to say it didn’t take a whole lot of NCAA/pro experience to close whatever gap there was.

You’re not wrong that the AHL is a better developmental environment than NCAA for Augustine. My counterargument is that it won’t take three years of AHL seasoning for Augustine to develop the pro mentality and technical skills he needs to play in the NHL. It probably won’t even take two. But in all likelihood he's three years out from getting Detroit’s crease no matter what he does.

I don’t care if Augustine is the best goalie he can possibly be at age 21. I care that he’s the best goalie he can be by the time he’s actually in Detroit. Does playing in the NCAA again this year push back his timetable for that? I’m not convinced that it does.
- Sven22

I’ll throw this in, and this is where the concern is. After this year he’s one season away from being a UFA. When I talked about teams I’d gotten word of sending scouts to the games, that’s where I really want to see if there’s money and which exchange/agent set it up. This is where the NHL needs to sit with the NCAA and be able to do NIL sponsorship on a limited number of picks (1 per year, max of 4 on the books). Apart from another year in a league where you’ve won in the big 10, won goalie of the year award etc, we now have money that has agents and scouts talking. If at one year out from being a UFA you can’t get a commitment or a way to be able to sign a modified ELC that allows for that prospect to stay in school if that’s what they want. This particular prospect is performing at a high level in a high visibility conference where teams get commitments from NHL drafted prospects. Add money with no cap and the way tampering has GMs not wanting to be in the same room as each other at the draft and there are issues. Developmentally, AHL is obviously better. But for now this is still a route where you cannot sign your drafted prospect. I think it’s a storm brewing that I cannot believe hasn’t been addressed or negotiated. There are other issues, Bob Daniels did a great job bringing those up in that video so I don’t need to repeat them.