Offer sheets rarely make sense, which is one of the many reasons that they are ever signed...
- TommyGTrain
They rarely don't get matched, but they do all get signed otherwise we'd never hear about it.
I don't think there's really enough recent history to be able to take a position one way or the other. Holloway and Broberg last year have worked out excellent for the Blues, to date. Kotkaniemi in 2021 definitely wasn't a homerun for CAR but wasn't terrible either. The last offer sheet before that that was not matched was Dustin Penner in 2007 and that one seemingly had mixed results