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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Buying low on a sniper
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MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 17 @ 10:13 AM ET
I have a question for everyone. If we were able to land Jonathan Huberdeau, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Patrik Laine at retained cap hits. While ridding us of Reilly Smith and Ryan Graves this offseason and still having cap space to sign free agents and not giving up our top prospect Yager or a 1st. Would you make the trades?
- 123Kid


There is an algebra problem with this. Yes, I would absolutely take all 3 of them if we could get 1/2 retained and not give up Yager and a 1st. But a) you wouldnt be able to get them all 1/2 retained without giving up significant picks/prospects and b) you can't fit them under the cap if you don't have at least close to 1/2 retained. Even with Smith and Graves gone.

I'd rank them as 1) Laine, 2) PLD 3) Huberdeau. Huberdeau might be the most interesting scenario though as he has the worst value/contract out of the 3, doesnt want to be there and Calgary also has a ton of picks, with likely more on the way if Markstrom gets traded.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 17 @ 10:32 AM ET
Jake is going to get paid. No doubt about it.

Laine is only interesting if CBJ is willing to retain a lot or take Graves. If so, then he could be great on the PP, though not sure where he'd fit in the forward lines.

How is it only Game 5 it's June 17?

- MickV


I honestly don't know with Jake. Teams may look at guys like Huberdeau and second guess that massive contract. But it will also be dependent on who can free up cap space.

If LA gets rid of Dubois, I could totally see them offering him 7 years at $9M. By that same token, if Reinhart walks in Florida I could totally see them offering him 7x$7.5M and Guentzel prefering that deal. He will get a good contract but I accurate or not, I think he is going to be viewed and paid as a complimentary piece and not a star. Remember, he is competing for dollars with Stamkos, Reinhart, Duchene, Marssecault, even Patrick Kane. Cap space could dry up quickly and teams could prefer a shorter term/dollar deal with lesser players rather than the one big one with Jake.

For Laine, I think even at his full salary it is a gamble worth taking if Smith goes somewhere and it doesnt cost us much by the way of assets. Ive said before, I'd love to get Provorov and I would favor giving up some assets to get Laine at a cheaper cap hit but my point is I think he can get back to that level where he is providing adequate value for $8.7M.

The ideal role to start out for Laine would be the Kessel role. Play 3rd line with Eller and a really good 2 way winger and feast on some of the better matchups. Slot into the Kessel role on the powerplay and take feeds from Sid and Karlsson. That should be how it is pitched to his agent. No pressure, spend a couple years learning from some of the best players of this NHL generation and get your game back on track in time for that next big contract.
MickV
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Cambridge, MA
Joined: 07.03.2023

Jun 17 @ 10:35 AM ET
At this point Laine would be 2RW or 3RW and 1PP. Probably 3RW to start.
- j.boyd919


Yeah, that's what I'd assume too. A DOC-Eller-Laine third line should work well. I just have a hard time seeing Laine with Sid, and then with Geno that'd be a a train wreck defensively.
MickV
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Cambridge, MA
Joined: 07.03.2023

Jun 17 @ 10:48 AM ET
I honestly don't know with Jake. Teams may look at guys like Huberdeau and second guess that massive contract. But it will also be dependent on who can free up cap space.

If LA gets rid of Dubois, I could totally see them offering him 7 years at $9M. By that same token, if Reinhart walks in Florida I could totally see them offering him 7x$7.5M and Guentzel prefering that deal. He will get a good contract but I accurate or not, I think he is going to be viewed and paid as a complimentary piece and not a star. Remember, he is competing for dollars with Stamkos, Reinhart, Duchene, Marssecault, even Patrick Kane. Cap space could dry up quickly and teams could prefer a shorter term/dollar deal with lesser players rather than the one big one with Jake.

For Laine, I think even at his full salary it is a gamble worth taking if Smith goes somewhere and it doesnt cost us much by the way of assets. Ive said before, I'd love to get Provorov and I would favor giving up some assets to get Laine at a cheaper cap hit but my point is I think he can get back to that level where he is providing adequate value for $8.7M.

The ideal role to start out for Laine would be the Kessel role. Play 3rd line with Eller and a really good 2 way winger and feast on some of the better matchups. Slot into the Kessel role on the powerplay and take feeds from Sid and Karlsson. That should be how it is pitched to his agent. No pressure, spend a couple years learning from some of the best players of this NHL generation and get your game back on track in time for that next big contract.

- MacPatty


I agree with most of this, but Jake is getting paid! He has 2 more goals in his career regular season in 311 fewer games than Huberdeau, plus his playoff numbers, the cap going up, NHL GMs are morons on July 1, etc. I just can't see him not getting paid.

For Laine I posted a few days ago: Laine + Provorov for Graves + Smith or Rakell + any prospect other than Yager and Blomqvist + mid-round pick. Laine's a risk coming out of the assistance program, and Graves just sucks, but clearly straight up that's imbalanced and CBJ has enough LD, so move Provorov back to us and then pay off the imbalance with some roster player(s), prospects (except our 2 good ones), and picks (other than first 2 rounds). If they want Pusst or whoever too, they can have him.



MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 17 @ 11:01 AM ET
I agree with most of this, but Jake is getting paid! He has 2 more goals in his career regular season in 311 fewer games than Huberdeau, plus his playoff numbers, the cap going up, NHL GMs are morons on July 1, etc. I just can't see him not getting paid.

For Laine I posted a few days ago: Laine + Provorov for Graves + Smith or Rakell + any prospect other than Yager and Blomqvist + mid-round pick. Laine's a risk coming out of the assistance program, and Graves just sucks, but clearly straight up that's imbalanced and CBJ has enough LD, so move Provorov back to us and then pay off the imbalance with some roster player(s), prospects (except our 2 good ones), and picks (other than first 2 rounds). If they want Pusst or whoever too, they can have him.

- MickV


I think Jake and Huberdeau have been pretty similar players through their prime with a slight edge to Huberdeau. Jake spent a number of years in college while Hubey came in younger, and he has also had 2 years (post big contract) where he has fallen off a cliff so the goals per game stat is a little misleading.

Not to say Jake isnt going to get paid, but I really do have that feeling that its not going to be a mind boggling number.

I like that deal. Pens likely need to add something a bit higher quality in the prospect/pick category but close enough. Provorov is in a contract year and is ripe for a rebound.
MickV
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Cambridge, MA
Joined: 07.03.2023

Jun 17 @ 11:32 AM ET
I think Jake and Huberdeau have been pretty similar players through their prime with a slight edge to Huberdeau. Jake spent a number of years in college while Hubey came in younger, and he has also had 2 years (post big contract) where he has fallen off a cliff so the goals per game stat is a little misleading.

Not to say Jake isnt going to get paid, but I really do have that feeling that its not going to be a mind boggling number.

I like that deal. Pens likely need to add something a bit higher quality in the prospect/pick category but close enough. Provorov is in a contract year and is ripe for a rebound.

- MacPatty


In the 6 years leading up to UFA deals (Jake this year, Huberdeau 2 years ago), they both played within a few games of 400 total with per 82 averages of 39g+46a for Jake and 29g+62a for Huberdeau. Huberdeau had that huge year in his contract year which likely skewed his contract up (plus CGY afraid to lose him after losing Tkachuk).

I think Jake will get over $8M/year. He won't get Pasta money, but more than $8M / year definitely.
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