Jeremy Laura: Red Wings fans wait, Konecny’s deal vs Raymond, and a buzzcast update

Not a DET fan, but I wanted to say you do an excellent job with your blog staying current Jeremy. Much appreciated. Wish this site had more like you. Have a great day!

Not a DET fan, but I wanted to say you do an excellent job with your blog staying current Jeremy. Much appreciated. Wish this site had more like you. Have a great day!
- jfkst1

Oh man, thank you so much. That is incredibly high praise and I am grateful for the opportunity. That was a huge blessing

TK plays RW

TK plays RW
- HenryHockey

Apologies. I screwed that up. Will make correction.

TK's contract is now a comparable for Raymond's contract. TK was over-paid, and it will be hard for Y to show that TK was over-paid by about 1M per season. So Raymond gets a 2-3yr bridge for $6.5M.

TK's contract is now a comparable for Raymond's contract. TK was over-paid, and it will be hard for Y to show that TK was over-paid by about 1M per season. So Raymond gets a 2-3yr bridge for $6.5M.
- HenryHockey

That’s where I’m at. Even with the mistaken placement of TK at center, Raymond has hit the 30 mark early on. That sample size is tough, but it’s there and a value has been established (even if an overpay) for the negotiations. This one had some head scratching.

I don't think TK's deal is a comparable for Raymond. Flyers are buying UFA years in this deal not RFA years. Still think Yzerman goes with a 3 to 5 year deal with Raymond. Seider needs to be locked in long term. Top pair RHD are way more valuable than a scoring winger and harder to find. Would be nice to have both locked up long term but i think it would have been done by now if they could.

I don't think TK's deal is a comparable for Raymond. Flyers are buying UFA years in this deal not RFA years. Still think Yzerman goes with a 3 to 5 year deal with Raymond. Seider needs to be locked in long term. Top pair RHD are way more valuable than a scoring winger and harder to find. Would be nice to have both locked up long term but i think it would have been done by now if they could.
- dcz28

The only thing I’ve heard is (not just Detroit) GMs are a bit caught off guard by the initial asks. Agents are looking at the more optimistic revenue projections and using % of cap as an inflator. I think this directly hits Raymond because of the ability to lock him up until 30. Konecny has decline built in by holding to 35. Raymond has prime years available in max term. Personal opinion but we are seeing 2nd deals hit with a higher value. If you have a 25-30 goal scorer at 22 that UFA deal could be much higher. We’ll see how it washes out.

The only thing I’ve heard is (not just Detroit) GMs are a bit caught off guard by the initial asks. Agents are looking at the more optimistic revenue projections and using % of cap as an inflator. I think this directly hits Raymond because of the ability to lock him up until 30. Konecny has decline built in by holding to 35. Raymond has prime years available in max term. Personal opinion but we are seeing 2nd deals hit with a higher value. If you have a 25-30 goal scorer at 22 that UFA deal could be much higher. We’ll see how it washes out.
- Jeremy Laura

Raymond and Seider don't have much leverage right now. They do on a long term deal but they have no arbitration rights. Unless someone comes with an offersheet, short term, they have no leverage other than sitting out or asking for a trade. UFA years are always more expensive to buy for teams because they could be competing with the rest of the league for his services. This is why i don't think you can compare Raymond to TK. He was about to become a UFA after this season where all teams could negotiate with him. Raymond is still years away from that. RFAs coming off their entry level deals is a much better comparable than a UFA to be despite the UFA being older.

Slafkovsky, Stuzzle, Tkachuk ect...those are the comparable contracts. At some point the cap likely won't go up much or at all so you can't be negotiating like it's never going to stop going up. This is like athletes spending money like crazy when they are playing not thinking that at some point they are not going to be making millions anymore. They end up retiring and years later end up broke because they for some reason didn't think that the money would stop coming in as much. The NHL teams that keep spending and giving out huge bloated contracts thinking in a few years this will be peanuts, at some point will be screwed. Way too many teams are already up to the cap or over it.

Raymond and Seider don't have much leverage right now. They do on a long term deal but they have no arbitration rights. Unless someone comes with an offersheet, short term, they have no leverage other than sitting out or asking for a trade. UFA years are always more expensive to buy for teams because they could be competing with the rest of the league for his services. This is why i don't think you can compare Raymond to TK. He was about to become a UFA after this season where all teams could negotiate with him. Raymond is still years away from that. RFAs coming off their entry level deals is a much better comparable than a UFA to be despite the UFA being older.

Slafkovsky, Stuzzle, Tkachuk ect...those are the comparable contracts. At some point the cap likely won't go up much or at all so you can't be negotiating like it's never going to stop going up. This is like athletes spending money like crazy when they are playing not thinking that at some point they are not going to be making millions anymore. They end up retiring and years later end up broke because they for some reason didn't think that the money would stop coming in as much. The NHL teams that keep spending and giving out huge bloated contracts thinking in a few years this will be peanuts, at some point will be screwed. Way too many teams are already up to the cap or over it.
- dcz28

I agree completely on the cap. What we’ve seen is the willingness of non arb RFAs to push it out. Nylander was unknowingly a bit of a game changer. The problem GMs are going to have right now is that there was a reported refund and “top off” for players after the season. Only the 2nd since the current CBA went into effect. The 2nd deal for high performers has caused a shift and there were reports that UFAs who played the waiting game were not happy. Combine those with the projections of hitting the 100m cap mark and you have the strategy of the agents. You also have GMs who heard that when Matthews and McDavid were at the end of their deals thats where the cap would be. So it’s past reality mixed with a current bump in revenue (still undefined but jersey ads in big markets were probably a part). Add to that Bettman’s projections and you have the percentage point negotiation. Also add inflation/cost of living. A player having to wait until UFA has changed for higher performers. The years before age 30 are more valuable to the team. So now, spending has adapted. The likely result is a change in RFA structure in the future. But the value of Raymond age 22-30 is higher than Konecny age 27-35 in terms of contribution, injury, regression etc.

I agree completely on the cap. What we’ve seen is the willingness of non arb RFAs to push it out. Nylander was unknowingly a bit of a game changer. The problem GMs are going to have right now is that there was a reported refund and “top off” for players after the season. Only the 2nd since the current CBA went into effect. The 2nd deal for high performers has caused a shift and there were reports that UFAs who played the waiting game were not happy. Combine those with the projections of hitting the 100m cap mark and you have the strategy of the agents. You also have GMs who heard that when Matthews and McDavid were at the end of their deals thats where the cap would be. So it’s past reality mixed with a current bump in revenue (still undefined but jersey ads in big markets were probably a part). Add to that Bettman’s projections and you have the percentage point negotiation. Also add inflation/cost of living. A player having to wait until UFA has changed for higher performers. The years before age 30 are more valuable to the team. So now, spending has adapted. The likely result is a change in RFA structure in the future. But the value of Raymond age 22-30 is higher than Konecny age 27-35 in terms of contribution, injury, regression etc.
- Jeremy Laura

I don't disagree with that. There is also a risk though with signing guys out of their entry level deals to big long term contracts hoping they will grow into them and be a bargain later on. Some might never live up to it or just become complacent because they are already getting paid a lot of money for a long time. A GM has to really know the character of the player and be sure there is more for them to give. 27 year old UFAs, you pretty much know what they are if you don't base it on them having a career year in the last year of their contract and go by what they have done in their entire career to date and factor in that later years they likely will decline.

I don't disagree with that. There is also a risk though with signing guys out of their entry level deals to big long term contracts hoping they will grow into them and be a bargain later on. Some might never live up to it or just become complacent because they are already getting paid a lot of money for a long time. A GM has to really know the character of the player and be sure there is more for them to give. 27 year old UFAs, you pretty much know what they are if you don't base it on them having a career year in the last year of their contract and go by what they have done in their entire career to date and factor in that later years they likely will decline.
- dcz28

I think that’s well put. A GM is deciding on retaining a rookie that could fall off or retaining a veteran that will certainly see the diminishing effect of time. The other attraction for those young high dollar deals is that they can be bought out at 1/3 the number as opposed to 2/3 for the more veteran deals (excluding the 35+). This was brought up when DeAngelo was bought out by NYR. It’s better than nothing, but he got 1/3 of what was remaining on the deal. This is the final benefit for the GM in that realm. Detroit just hasn’t had 2 players this well embedded after their ELC in a while. Possibly none in the modern age. It’s encouraging to have good young talent but the landscape has shifted in terms of compensation. Hopefully the players want to be part of “the big picture” and are willing to concede a little in $ to build.

Fyi, just for accuracy’s sake, the 2 highest aav contracts ever given out by Philly were:
Giroux 8.275
Voracek 8.250

Fyi, just for accuracy’s sake, the 2 highest aav contracts ever given out by Philly were:
Giroux 8.275
Voracek 8.250
- BiggE

The article I quoted from just mentioned total contract value, and it’s a fair note as Mike’s was a 12 year pact (while those were still legal). Those old “backdiving” deals were a staple in Detroit. You essentially had a player making 1m for the last few years and they got paid up front. I think Shea Weber’s deal was one the league “threatened” to look into in order to get the NHLPA to move on something they wanted.

I really appreciate the drop in though. It’s kind of a thrill to see someone stop in to read. I may elaborate more on that one day, but it’s very cool for me.