Sens Writer: Senators Prospect Rankings, 2024 Edition

Thanks for the blog. Bang up job!

The order seems solid. Certainly nothing too out of sorts. It's satisfying to see some size, physicality + skills in the depth players.

Good blog, thanks fro writing it. Halliday was a player I read could have a good shot at camp , based of what you said about his great play in the playoffs. Although he may benefit from a bit of time in Belleville.

Hoping to see Kleven in the lineup to start the season.

Really good write up. Good choice for the top 10 ........ but I'm curious as to why there is no mention of Crookshank? Is it because he has timed out and has graduated to the NHL like Greig?

Overall ... I see Greig and Crookshank sticking.

I also see Klevin, and Ostapchuk making it to the Sens. I can see the Sens holding Halliday back for a season in Belleville, or maybe an injury call-up later in the year.

Really good write up. Good choice for the top 10 ........ but I'm curious as to why there is no mention of Crookshank? Is it because he has timed out and has graduated to the NHL like Greig?

Overall ... I see Greig and Crookshank sticking.

I also see Klevin, and Ostapchuk making it to the Sens. I can see the Sens holding Halliday back for a season in Belleville, or maybe an injury call-up later in the year.
- OttawaB

I should have noted that I broadly used an age-24 prospect cut-off, which also affected Reinhardt. Basically, if you're in your 2nd/3rd year of clearing waivers and still don't have a regular NHL job, I'm not sure to what extent you're still a legitimate NHL prospect (at least beyond a 4th line/call-up role) vs. settling into more of an AHL career. Now that's for F/D, as goaltenders often take longer to develop, but I'm hard-pressed to think of too many AHL F/D who suddenly made a significant NHL impact after turning 24. It's the same reason that players tend to head back to Europe around this time if they're still going through waivers just to play another AHL season with an uncertain future.

That said, I really do like Crookshank as a potential 4th line option - he has the motor, the sandpaper, and enough goal-scoring touch to bury his chances when they present themselves. But he still wouldn't have cracked the list, because of the priority assigned to higher role potential (i.e. 1st/2nd/3rd line) and eventual NHL likelihood (even if not for the coming season).

Good blog, thanks fro writing it. Halliday was a player I read could have a good shot at camp , based of what you said about his great play in the playoffs. Although he may benefit from a bit of time in Belleville.

Hoping to see Kleven in the lineup to start the season.
- david22

Kleven better be ready and the sens should know he is. Otherwise that 5/6 pairing needs to be addressed

Kleven better be ready and the sens should know he is. Otherwise that 5/6 pairing needs to be addressed
- GrimmdaGoalie

The indication I got from interviews with Staios that I've seen over the summer is that they felt Kleven was effectively NHL-ready last year, but they believed it would be more beneficial for his development to spend a full year playing 20min/night as one of the young leaders of an AHL team with legitimate playoff potential. Plus, he's played 17GP at the NHL level, and for the most part never looked out of place. I suspect it's more a matter of trying to prepare him for playing consistently at the NHL-level for a full 82GP season, which is where things like physical conditioning and game preparation habits start coming into play. But short of an unexpected injury in training camp, it's hard to envision Kleven not being NHL-ready for the coming season.

I sure wish we had some idea on how Ullmark is leaning. Is he willing to sign longer term with the Sens or not? Even if it is only a 2-3 year extension. Ullmark is probably waiting to see what Swayman gets as an extension with the Bruins before he looks to sign.

Not liking the fact that we still have Hamonic taking up a roster spot, especially after knee surgery. Now he will be even slower. I would rather have JBD and Guenette in the 6th and 7th d-man spot (right side) rotating in and out of the line-up.

Thinking PTO's ....... would you bring anyone in?

I was also thinking a trade with Dallas to shake up Ottawa's core. Thomas Harley is still an RFA. Not sure what he is looking for, but Dallas only has around $6.5 million in cap space left. If we could get Harley for around 6-7 million for 5-7 years then it would be worthwhile. Trade Harley for Chabot. Let Dallas figure out their cap ramnifications. Dallas is in a win now mode and next year Benn drops off the cap hit of $9.5 million so Dallas only needs to figure out Chabot's contract for 1 season before he fits in fine. Harley has had one good year, breakout year? Left d-man at 6ft 3in. We would have Sanderson/Harley/Klevin on the left side. Zub/Jensen/JBD on the right ...... with Yakemchuk coming in another year or 2. But this frees up some more cap space with Chabot exiting. Maybe even squeeze the Stars for a second round pick in 2026 as well.

Askarov went to SJS for VGS 2025 first and 2 minor prospects, should OTT have traded BOS 2024 first +2 minor prospect for him over 3/4s of a year of Ullmark instead?

Askarov went to SJS for VGS 2025 first and 2 minor prospects, should OTT have traded BOS 2024 first +2 minor prospect for him over 3/4s of a year of Ullmark instead?
- Mithos

I was thinking the same thing. Askarov is unproven in the NHL, Ullmark is a known commodity but will he commit longer term. I would say the same with Askarov .... would he commit longer term as well. In the end, that is the issue ..... would either goalie commit to longer term with Ottawa?

I might even have considered a 3 team swapping of assets ....
Ottawa gets Askarov and Brandt Clarke
LA Kings get Ullmark, Crookshank from Ottawa
Nashville gets Ottawa Senator 2nd rounder, JBD, LA Kings AHL goalie Portillo and a 2nd round pick from LA Kings.

Askarov went to SJS for VGS 2025 first and 2 minor prospects, should OTT have traded BOS 2024 first +2 minor prospect for him over 3/4s of a year of Ullmark instead?
- Mithos

They need to start winning games next year, plus the Ullmark deal took care of Korpisalo's contract as well. Freeing up 75% of the money from that contract was no minor part of the value equation. Plus, Askarov is no more NHL-proven than Sogaard, and the two actually have relatively comparable AHL stats from last year...
- 44GP, 30-13-1, 2.39 GAA, 0.911 sv%
- 32GP, 18-9-3, 2.45 GAA, 0.916 sv%

The improvements to team defense will be just as critical... because neither Ullmark or Askarov would have fared well playing in front of last year's defensive group.

Im happy NOT signing Ullmark until the season's end. Enough goalie anchor contracts for bad results. I don't know if it's a combination of our terrible coaching/style of play, defense not as good as we think it is, or just bad goalie joo-joo here but enough is enough. If his numbers are good at seasons' end. Fine. Sign him long term. If it's not. Cut bait. Move on to someone else.

Im happy NOT signing Ullmark until the season's end. Enough goalie anchor contracts for bad results. I don't know if it's a combination of our terrible coaching/style of play, defense not as good as we think it is, or just bad goalie joo-joo here but enough is enough. If his numbers are good at seasons' end. Fine. Sign him long term. If it's not. Cut bait. Move on to someone else.
- Octavarium

This right here. Completely agree.

The problem with thinking like that is that if we wait until year end, then Ullmark may decide that he will move on if he had a good year. Why not go to the highest bidder after achieving UFA status? Why stay in Ottawa?
Good thing you guys don't own a team otherwise you may never get anything accomplished. The reality is that making a choice to sign any player is wrought with risks. They could get serially injured, spiral down in their career .... lots of issues. In the end, any contract carries risks.

What we have to remember is that this management team does not carry the issues or luck (or lack thereof) of the previous administration. Why fans continue to place their frustration on the new administration is something I don't understand. It was Dorion who continually fumbled with the goalie situation. The Staios regime has no part of that issue. I feel the sooner they get a deal done with Ullmark, the better. It will add stability to the back end and Ullmark has a history of good numbers in Boston and Buffalo. All we need to do is to ensure the defence in front of him improves. Heck, why not trust the Staios management team to do the right thing. After all, they were the ones who were actually able to ditch the Korpisalo contract in the trade that got them a Vezina trophy winner. Nobody thought they could dump Korpisalo with that contract.

Because Staois has SO much more NHL gm'ing experience than Dorion? Some OHL success?

You're putting a lot of faith in this guy. Speaking of faith...while you're handing it out like smarties. Give some more to a 31 year old goalie who's had a couple 20 + win seasons and ONE 40 win season whilst playing in one of the must perfectly structured and coached environments in the NHL. Two of those 20+ win seasons were, again in that system, and tandem'ed up with a hot young stud goalie who could cover his blemishes/cold spells.

Sure. lets give him 5x5 what could go wrong? Lets make the playoffs. Lets get some wins. Lets see him steal a few then talk money. If we are out of it by November again. He can be traded at the deadline. But not if he's got another whopper of a deal attached to him.

Because Staois has SO much more NHL gm'ing experience than Dorion? Some OHL success?

You're putting a lot of faith in this guy. Speaking of faith...while you're handing it out like smarties. Give some more to a 31 year old goalie who's had a couple 20 + win seasons and ONE 40 win season whilst playing in one of the must perfectly structured and coached environments in the NHL. Two of those 20+ win seasons were, again in that system, and tandem'ed up with a hot young stud goalie who could cover his blemishes/cold spells.

Sure. lets give him 5x5 what could go wrong? Lets make the playoffs. Lets get some wins. Lets see him steal a few then talk money. If we are out of it by November again. He can be traded at the deadline. But not if he's got another whopper of a deal attached to him.
- Octavarium

I think it is best for both sides if they see how the year plays out. Last thing both Ullmark and Sens want to do is over commit to a bad fit.

Having said that....never sign a goalie to a contract that goes past his 35th birthday, MAF not withstanding....

I think it is best for both sides if they see how the year plays out. Last thing both Ullmark and Sens want to do is over commit to a bad fit.

Having said that....never sign a goalie to a contract that goes past his 35th birthday, MAF not withstanding....
- GrimmdaGoalie

Maybe... though Anderson was older than that during the team's most successful playoff run of the past 15 years in 2016/17, and Talbot was hardly the worst option they've had in goal since Anderson left. Meanwhile, the two biggest disasters the team has had in goal were Murray and Korpisalo, both signed long-term in their mid-late 20's before they'd even played a game in the uniform. So the problem really isn't age, it's impatience and a reckless use of contract term. There's nothing wrong with making sure Ullmark plays up to the level he's capable of and fits the team culture, so long as they're prepared to fairly compensate him.

There's nothing wrong with making sure Ullmark plays up to the level he's capable of and fits the team culture, so long as they're prepared to fairly compensate him.
- khawk

Exactly. I'd be happy with a decision either way (sign or trade) at Xmas. By then, the organization AND the player should have a better idea as to whether they're a good fit for one another. We signed Murray when in 2020? Early in the season or something like that, and only a few days after getting him? Way too early to commit.

My issue is that if you let Ullmark reach or get close to UFA status, what is to stop him from testing out the market at that point. Higher end UFA's don't come to Ottawa. Ullmark is likely to test some other team at that point .... LA, Seattle, etc. Ottawa won't be on his list.
Besides, talk is as well that a goalie like Swayman want higher then $9 million. Ullmark may very well want and get a higher amount if we wait. Are we willing to pay him up to $8 million or higher if he puts up great numbers. If this happens the optics of trading him mid season is not good.

Zadina rumored to be looking at a team. Worth it for the Sens, at say, league minimum for one year?

Zadina rumored to be looking at a team. Worth it for the Sens, at say, league minimum for one year?
- david22

Hard pass on Zadina at this point. DET gave up on him, he then barely pulled his weight on the worst roster in the NHL, and no other team in the NHL has made any kind of significant effort to sign him. Plus, the biggest roster opportunities in OTT are for NHL-ready two-way/defensive players. I'd far rather see Crookshank get an extended look on the fourth line... which also sends a valuable message to their prospect pool (esp. mid-late round picks) that you can earn NHL opportunities with strong AHL development.

You are allowed to make 1 thing happened, what do you choose?

A) Josh Norris contract terminated today
B) Linus Ullmark 4 years @6M extension
C) Josh Norris 7.95 cap hit drops to 4.95M a year
D) Ridly Greig 6 years @3M extension

You are allowed to make 1 thing happened, what do you choose?

A) Josh Norris contract terminated today
B) Linus Ullmark 4 years @6M extension
C) Josh Norris 7.95 cap hit drops to 4.95M a year
D) Ridly Greig 6 years @3M extension
- AlfieisKing

I really want to say Ullmark, but I've been burned so many times.

Gotta be different at some point , right.

You are allowed to make 1 thing happened, what do you choose?

A) Josh Norris contract terminated today
B) Linus Ullmark 4 years @6M extension
C) Josh Norris 7.95 cap hit drops to 4.95M a year
D) Ridly Greig 6 years @3M extension
- AlfieisKing

For me, not even a contest ..... Ullmark at $6 million. First of all, I believe his numbers and his history show him to be a good goalie (whereas from Ottawa's past, Korpisalo, Forsberg, Matt Murray, did not have the body of work over time .... ya, Murray won a Cup but was injury prone and a total flake ......... and Talbot was on the downside of his career).
Secondly, I'd be surprised if we get Ullmark for that low a number. I'd say we may have to bump it to $8 million for 5 years.
Thirdly, we need to secure the back end in order to move forward. It Ullmark leaves as a UFA, then we are right back at the beginning juggling subpar goalies and hoping something hits. Chasing UFA goalies is not something Ottawa can do. Trading for top goalies can also mean giving up pieces we want to keep.

Greig .... meh .... show me another few good years before we bump you to a 6 year contract.
I'm okay with giving Norris another year or 2 to recover and start his hockey progression/growth again. Missing out on essentially 2 years of NHL development will take time to overcome. Besides, one more shoulder injury, and its LTIR for the rest of the contract which costs us nothing in salary cap. For my thinking, its either the good Norris with 50+ points and growing, or its the LTIR Norris.

I really want to say Ullmark, but I've been burned so many times.

Gotta be different at some point , right.
- david22

Good point man. I get the same feeling signing goalies to long term deals!